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Goldman raises recession odds to 30% on higher inflation, lower GDP outlook as oil prices surge

Goldman said it expected six weeks of Hormuz disruption, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80.

By Nick LichtenbergMarch 25, 2026
‘Russia is the only one responsible’: Moldova imposes 60-day energy emergency after Russian strikes in Ukraine
By The Associated Press, Stephen McGrath and Aurel ObrejaMarch 24, 2026
trump
Iran, the $39 trillion national debt and dedollarization: How Trump exposed America’s Achilles Heel in Hormuz
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 24, 2026
Farmer standing in front a soybean farm
Soaring fertilizer prices could pressure a U.S. agricultural industry that supports 50 million jobs and over $10 trillion in output
By Tristan BoveMarch 24, 2026
As war continues to rage, the World Economic Forum is the latest to postpone Gulf conference in Saudi 
By Kamal AhmedMarch 24, 2026
Current price of oil as of March 24, 2026
Current price of oil as of March 24, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMarch 24, 2026
Latest Stories
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By Allie GarfinkleMarch 25, 2026
America’s largest Medicaid insurer is making a move into building affordable housing, Centene CEO Sarah London announced at Fortune's Brainstorm Health conference in Dana Point, Calif., on Monday, May 20, 2024.
NewslettersThe youngest-ever female Fortune 500 CEO is reinventing the largest Medicaid insurer amid funding cuts and rising costs
By Diane BradyMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceToday’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on March 25, 2026
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Personal FinanceTop CD rates today, March 25, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
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NewslettersAI plot twist: Why did OpenAI kill its Sora video star?
By Alexei OreskovicMarch 25, 2026
retirement
CommentaryOur retirement system gets a C-plus; policymakers have an opportunity to make it A grade
By Chris MahoneyMarch 25, 2026
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By FortuneMarch 25, 2026
david-f
CommentaryEurope has survived 3 energy shocks in 4 years. The only way out is to stop buying power from its enemies
By David FrykmanMarch 25, 2026
More Middle EastPage 3 of 26
Middle EastPentagon sees Iran war lasting up to six weeks, Trump aide says
By Jen Judson and BloombergMarch 15, 2026
EnergyTrump says he asked 7 countries for Hormuz help. None answered the call
By Sam Metz, Will Weissert, Julia Frankel, Cara Anna and The Associated PressMarch 15, 2026
EnergyIran supertanker pushes through strait for China
By Prejula Prem and BloombergMarch 15, 2026
Middle EastJapan says dispatching ships to Middle East faces high hurdles
By Isabel Reynolds, Nicholas Takahashi and BloombergMarch 15, 2026
Middle EastBahrain starts output cuts at world’s top aluminum smelter
By Mark Burton and BloombergMarch 15, 2026
EnergyU.S. energy chief signals Iran war may last several more weeks
By Jen Judson and BloombergMarch 15, 2026
Middle EastAs Iran war knocks Trump back on his political heels, he lashes out at news coverage while taking flak from top MAGA figures
By Will Weissert and The Associated PressMarch 15, 2026
President Donald Trump salutes as a U.S. Army carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case containing the remains of Sgt. Declan J. Coady at Dover Air Force Base on March 07, 2026 in Dover, Delaware.
Middle EastThe war with Iran has defense experts wondering if Khamenei will attempt to activate sleeper cells on U.S. soil
By Eleanor PringleMarch 15, 2026
1970s car waiting for gas during the gas crisis of the 1970s.
Middle EastSo, what happens during a gas crisis, anyway? Your older relatives have a reason to bring up what could come next
By Catherina GioinoMarch 15, 2026
Energy‘Peak war panic’ will likely hit financial markets in 1-3 weeks, strategist predicts, as Trump says he doesn’t want to make a deal with Iran yet
By Jason MaMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastU.S. calls for Americans to leave Iraq ‘now’ as attacks mount
By Maria Paula Mijares Torres and BloombergMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastCrew of fatal U.S. military crash included Ohio Air National Guard members and a pilot with three small children
By David A. Lieb, Mark Scolforo, Julie Walker and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastIran openly threatens neighbor’s non-U.S. assets for first time, telling UAE ports to evacuate
By Jon Gambrell, Sam Mednick, Konstantin Toropin, Samy Magdy and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
EnergyTrump calls for countries to send warships to reopen Hormuz
By Arsalan Shahla and BloombergMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastTrump’s AI czar calls for U.S. to ‘get out’ of war and warns Iran has a ‘dead man’s switch’ that could render Gulf states almost uninhabitable
By Jason MaMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastMore than 3 million Iranians have been displaced so far since the war started, setting up a potential migration crisis
By Sam McNeil, Serra Yedikardes and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastKharg Island is ‘the main node’ of Iran’s economy, and a U.S. takeover would provide leverage in any negotiations, energy expert says
By Sam Metz and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
EnergyJet fuel prices are rising as oil spikes on Iran war. Airlines are already announcing fare increases or fuel surcharges
By Rio Yamat and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
EnergyU.S. lifts sanctions on Russian oil already loaded onto tankers, equal to 5-6 days’ worth of normal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
By David McHugh and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
iran
Middle EastIran stretches war into third week with missile strike on U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad
By Jon Gambrell, Sam Mednick, Konstantin Toropin, Mike Corder and The Associated PressMarch 14, 2026
Handout photo taken on March 11, 2026 and released by the Royal Thai Navy shows smoke rising from the Thai bulk carrier 'Mayuree Naree' near the Strait of Hormuz after an attack. A Thai bulk carrier travelling in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was attacked March 11, with 20 crew members rescued so far, the Thai navy said.
EnergySkyrocketing energy prices and inflation woes mount as the ‘absurd’ reality in Iran sinks in
By Jordan BlumMarch 14, 2026
Middle EastU.S. hits military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island as war escalates
By Skylar Woodhouse, Catherine Lucey and BloombergMarch 13, 2026
EnergyU.S. officials have discussed trading oil futures, Burgum says
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Tyler Kendall and BloombergMarch 13, 2026
Middle EastU.S. to send 2,500 Marines and an amphibious assault ship to Mideast, pulling them from waters near Taiwan
By Jon Gambrell, David Rising, Mike Corder and The Associated PressMarch 13, 2026
Middle EastAll 6 crew members on KC-135 refueling plane that crashed in Iraq are dead, bringing U.S. death toll to at least 13 service members
By Konstantin Toropin, Ben Finley, Kim Tong-Hyung and The Associated PressMarch 13, 2026
photo of stage at conference
CryptoFlagship Dubai crypto conference Token2049, in sudden reversal, cancels due to Iran war
By Carlos GarciaMarch 13, 2026
President Donald Trump
EnergyThe war in Iran has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, energy watchdog says, and a swift end to the conflict might not change that
By Tristan BoveMarch 13, 2026
EnergyThe Strait of Hormuz is an Iranian ‘kill box,’ preventing the U.S. Navy from securing it right now and letting tankers pass through freely
By Jason MaMarch 13, 2026
trump
EnergyTrump bragged about gas $2.30 a gallon just a month ago. He’s changed his tune
By Josh Boak and The Associated PressMarch 13, 2026
Photo: President Trump
EconomyWall Street buckles in for a long war as Hormuz remains closed and Trump says he has ‘plenty of time’
By Jim EdwardsMarch 13, 2026
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