A thing gripped the internet in 2025: nostalgia for the supposedly golden era of 2016, coincidentally the last year before Donald Trump ever became president of the United States, either in his first or second term. “Millennial optimism” gripped TikTok, harking back to a supposedly more carefree time. But something else marked that era: leaks from Trump’s orbit about how he was screwing up his campaign for president, then his first year as president, then his first term; meanwhile the Trump era moved forward relentlessly. Now 2026 is having a 2016 moment.
As Wednesday’s deadline looms for the fragile U.S.-Israel and Iran ceasefire, Trump officials said the president is hampering efforts to make a deal through his social media posts. In the Wall Street Journal and on CNN, Trump officials are anonymously blasting the president’s conduct, making a very 2016-style argument that they can only do so much to limit the damage of a president who just won’t listen to their advice.
For instance, the president discussed details of the negotiations in phone calls with reporters on Friday. As reported by Bloomberg, Trump said Iran had agreed to an “unlimited” suspension of its nuclear program, but Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei quickly refuted the claim in a statement to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.
On Monday, Trump followed up with several posts on Truth Social totaling more than 900 words, spanning comparisons of the Iran conflict to previous U.S. wars, the blockade’s economic toll on Iran, and Operation Midnight Hammer’s impact on the country’s nuclear capabilities. Trump officials responded by telling CNN that these posts were detrimental to ongoing talks, particularly due to the sensitivity of the negotiations and Iranian mistrust of the U.S.
Since the start of the Iran war, Trump has issued a barrage of social media statements that critics say have undermined diplomacy and potentially crossed legal lines. Prior to agreeing to the current two-week ceasefire, Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges, a threat that experts say could constitute a violation of international law. United Nations spokesperson Stephane Dujarric stated the obvious: “Even if specific civilian infrastructure were to qualify as a military objective, international humanitarian law would still prohibit attacks against them.”
One political scientist sees a 2016 nostalgia theme playing out here.
Trump says he’s ‘under no pressure whatsoever’ as deadline approaches
Tufts University professor Daniel Drezner has been a longtime political blogger and currently runs a Substack called Drezner’s World. He wrote over the weekend in a Substack post that he was feeling those 2016 vibes himself. Drezner cited yet a third article featuring background sources from inside the White House, this time a Wall Street Journal report outlining a general view of the president’s “leadership and decision-making pathologies” in his dealings with Iran but also wider patterns across other conflicts, such as Venezuela. Drezner argued the piece exposed the president’s short attention span and poor impulse control, flaws that have meaningfully shaped his approach to Iran.
In one post on Monday, for instance, the president said he wasn’t feeling pressure to reach a deal after claiming media reports had portrayed him as such. “I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!” he wrote on Truth Social.
Despite concerns that public commentary may have disrupted ceasefire negotiations, the White House defended Trump’s approach.
“The United States has never been closer to a good deal with Iran, unlike the horrible deal made by the Obama administration, thanks to President Trump’s negotiating ability,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “Anyone who cannot see President Trump’s tactics to play the long game are either stupid or willfully ignorant.”
Drezner has been noting for years in his blogging and Substacking that Trump’s staff talked about him to reporters as if he was a toddler who acted with no impulse control. On Sunday, he said he thought Trump’s second-term staff would refrain from this out of loyalty, although this showed signs of cracking over Trump’s bizarre pursuit of Greenland. But in this case, “the fact that even these toadies are leaking about him now indicates that they know that the boat is starting to take on water and they need to find their lifeboat.”
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf took to X Monday evening, accusing Trump of forcing Iran to the negotiating table. “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” the post read as translated from Persian.
But the impact extends beyond Iran negotiations. The president’s tone has also reshaped oil market behavior, according to Sebastian Barrack, head of commodities at Citadel. At the FT Commodities Global Summit this week, Barrack attributed the roughly 300% surge in oil and gas volatility during the conflict’s opening weeks in part to the president’s Truth Social posts and said he now keeps a screen dedicated solely to monitoring the president’s social media feed.
For example, Trump made a Truth Social post on March 23 saying the U.S. had “productive” talks with Iran, causing crude prices to plunge. In the beginning of March, the same thing happened after the president posted on Truth Social that the war was “very complete.”
The war has grown increasingly unpopular among the American public. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted during the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran found just 36% of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran. The poll found just 26% consider Trump “even-tempered.” That includes some Republicans. Fifty-one percent of Americans, including 14% of Republicans, said the president’s mental sharpness had gotten “worse” over the past year.
The president told CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning he believes the U.S. will reach a “great deal” with Iran. When asked if the president would extend a ceasefire to allow time for peace talks, he said, “Well, I don’t want to do that.”
The president added, “I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with” should the parties fail to reach a peace deal.
