• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

3

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

3

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Commentaryunemployment

The Biggest Challenge Facing Businesses in 2017

By
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 26, 2016, 9:00 AM ET
Businessman Looks Up At Red Ladder Extending Into The Clouds
A businessman carrying a briefcase stands at the bottom of a red ladder. He gazes up at the red ladder which disappears into the cloudy sky. The clouds allow for text and copy.DNY59—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Businesses’ biggest problem in 2017 won’t be weak sales, soft pricing, or even too much regulation, all problems that have plagued companies at different times over the past ten years. No, their biggest problem next year—and more often than not for the foreseeable future—will be a lack of qualified labor.

The job market is already very near what economists call full employment. That is, most of the 4.6% of the labor force that are currently unemployed are simply in between jobs. A similar number—approximately 7.5 million—is underemployed, including part-timers who want more hours and those who aren’t looking for work and thus are not counted as unemployed. Overall, this number isn’t much higher than it was in the best of economic times—a good sign for the economy overall.

If there are any remaining unemployed workers in the job market, they will be quickly absorbed at the current robust pace of job growth. Businesses added a stellar near 2.5 million to their payrolls in 2016, about double the growth in the working age population. This is the sixth year of consecutive positive job growth, among the longest streaks in the nation’s economic history. All kinds of jobs are being created. Lots of low-paying jobs in the retail and hospitality industries are appearing, as well as many middle-paying healthcare and construction jobs, and high-paying jobs in professional and financial services.

In this environment, businesses are having an increasingly tough time filling open positions. There have never been so many openings, especially in the construction, financial services, healthcare, and retail industries. Even manufacturers are having a tough go of it.

Read more: Why Unemployment Will Keep Dropping in 2017

To be sure, businesses have been slow in increasing wages more quickly to attract more workers. But this is changing fast. Wage growth, which had been stuck at close to 2% per year for much of the recovery, rose to almost 3% this year, and will certainly top that in 2017. Businesses will have little choice but to raise wages more quickly if they want to hold onto their existing workers, let alone expand their payrolls.

Private sector woes in finding workers is set to get even worse, as the large baby boom generation retires and leaves the labor force en masse. Labor force growth will soon come to a virtual standstill. Businesses would get some relief if Congress could agree on reform to our immigration laws, which would allow for more legal immigrant workers to come in to the country. Why not give work visas to foreign students that graduate from our universities and colleges? They are the world’s best and brightest, and we want them working here in the U.S.

 

But that isn’t going to happen under President Donald Trump. In fact, if he follows through even partly on his campaign pledge to require undocumented immigrant workers to leave the country, businesses’ labor shortage problems will get much worse. And while the president-elect at times expressed support for high-skilled worker immigration, he has generally been critical of the existing H-1B skilled worker visa program.

Incentives will thus be strong for businesses with global operations to expand their hiring overseas, where there are many highly educated and skilled workers. A strong U.S. dollar only makes this strategy more attractive. No amount of browbeating by policymakers will stop this dynamic. Trump may attempt to stop this practice as he has with using public pressure against companies moving jobs out of the country, but it is unlikely to work given businesses’ strong economic incentives to hire from overseas.

All of this may sound a bit odd, given what we’ve heard about coming technologies that seemingly threaten to wipe out jobs and leave many unemployed. There is much Luddite-like talk of driverless cars, artificial intelligence, 3D manufacturing, drones, and robots. These advances appear promising, but history shows that it will take a long time for them to have a broad impact on the economy. For now, businesses shouldn’t count on technology solving what for many will soon be their more significant problem: The inability to find qualified workers.

Mark Zandi is the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

About the Author
By Mark Zandi
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

steve
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Steve Case: America was built by entrepreneurs. Here’s how we keep that edge for the next 250 years
By Steve CaseJune 24, 2026
4 hours ago
t
CommentaryWhite House
Trump mistakes the bully pulpit for bullying leadership — history’s villains were never heroes
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven TianJune 24, 2026
5 hours ago
mg
CommentaryHealth
The ‘tech neck’ time bomb: why 43 million young Americans could cripple U.S. health care within a generation
By Michael GerlingJune 24, 2026
5 hours ago
sb
Commentaryclimate change
The climate policy triangle: why leaders can no longer choose between growth, security and sustainability
By Sebastian BuckupJune 23, 2026
19 hours ago
brett
CommentaryManagement
Middle managers aren’t going extinct—they’re evolving into something more powerful
By Brett HurtJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
ravi
CommentaryAI agents
Yale School of Management: surveillance pricing is just the beginning. AI agents will be the real test of corporate trust
By Ravi Dhar and Jon IwataJune 23, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
Economy
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
By Jacqueline MunisJune 24, 2026
10 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
Real Estate
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
By Sydney LakeJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.