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Goldman raises recession odds to 30% on higher inflation, lower GDP outlook as oil prices surge

Goldman said it expected six weeks of Hormuz disruption, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80.

By Nick LichtenbergMarch 25, 2026
‘Russia is the only one responsible’: Moldova imposes 60-day energy emergency after Russian strikes in Ukraine
By The Associated Press, Stephen McGrath and Aurel ObrejaMarch 24, 2026
trump
Iran, the $39 trillion national debt and dedollarization: How Trump exposed America’s Achilles Heel in Hormuz
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 24, 2026
Farmer standing in front a soybean farm
Soaring fertilizer prices could pressure a U.S. agricultural industry that supports 50 million jobs and over $10 trillion in output
By Tristan BoveMarch 24, 2026
As war continues to rage, the World Economic Forum is the latest to postpone Gulf conference in Saudi 
By Kamal AhmedMarch 24, 2026
Current price of oil as of March 24, 2026
Current price of oil as of March 24, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMarch 24, 2026
Latest Stories
Personal FinanceToday’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on March 25, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceTop CD rates today, March 25, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
NewslettersAI plot twist: Why did OpenAI kill its Sora video star?
By Alexei OreskovicMarch 25, 2026
retirement
CommentaryOur retirement system gets a C-plus; policymakers have an opportunity to make it A grade
By Chris MahoneyMarch 25, 2026
America’s Most Innovative Companies
By Fortune EditorsMarch 25, 2026
david-f
CommentaryEurope has survived 3 energy shocks in 4 years. The only way out is to stop buying power from its enemies
By David FrykmanMarch 25, 2026
MagazineWall Street is convinced AI will kill SaaS. History and economics say something else
By Jeremy KahnMarch 25, 2026
C-Suite‘We’ve become like Europe’: Jamie Dimon warns China is beating the U.S. as he says Iran war means a ‘better chance’ of permanent Middle East peace
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMarch 25, 2026
More Middle East
EconomyTrump searches for an exit strategy in Iran as $100 oil looms over the midterms
By Jim EdwardsMarch 24, 2026
Middle EastPutin is the real winner in Trump’s Iran war as it puts Russian oil back on the map
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMarch 23, 2026
CryptoBitcoin climbs as Trump grants five days for Iran negotiations
By Emily Nicolle, Melos Ambaye and BloombergMarch 23, 2026
EnergyChevron’s CEO says oil prices are still too low—and the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure are not ‘fully priced in’
By Jordan BlumMarch 23, 2026
Economy‘Capital is a coward’: A whole new world of elevated risk will stay embedded in global markets, keeping prices higher everywhere 
By Jason MaMarch 23, 2026
EnergyMarkets in meltdown after Trump threatens major escalation in the war against Iran
By Jim EdwardsMarch 23, 2026
AsiaThe Iran war cripples Asia’s supplies of fertilizer and helium, threatening farms and chipmakers alike
By Angelica AngMarch 23, 2026
EconomyMarkets wait for Trump and Iran to follow through on Hormuz threats that carry potentially catastrophic results
By Jason MaMarch 22, 2026
Middle EastAs Trump eyes climactic battle for Hormuz, he could give Iran a ‘taste of their own medicine’ with a naval blockade that implodes the economy
By Jason MaMarch 22, 2026
EnergyCuba begins to restore power after third nationwide collapse of the entire energy grid this month alone
By Andrea Rodriguez and The Associated PressMarch 22, 2026
Middle EastAfter Trump threatens to destroy Iranian power plants, Tehran warns the region’s vital infrastructure, like desalination facilities, will be targeted
By Alon Bernstein, Sam Metz, Samy Magdy and The Associated PressMarch 22, 2026
PoliticsThe Indian Ocean base targeted by Iran is ‘an all but indispensable platform’ for U.S. security operations in the Mideast, South Asia and East Africa
By Jill Lawless and The Associated PressMarch 22, 2026
Donald Trump, standing behind a podium, frowns and points a finger upward.
Economy‘Almost exactly offsetting the boost’: Higher gasoline prices this year could wipe out tax refunds from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act
By Sasha RogelbergMarch 22, 2026
Middle EastTrump gives Iran 48 hours on Hormuz, threatens power plants
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy and BloombergMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastIsrael says ‘war is not close to ending’ as its nuclear research center is targeted for first time, hours after Iranian enrichment site was hit
By Samy Magdy, Melanie Lidman, Jill Lawless and The Associated PressMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastU.S. allows sale of stranded Iran oil to cap fuel-price rises
By Se Young Lee, Millie Munshi, Yongchang Chin and BloombergMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastIran launches missiles at U.K.-U.S. base 2,500 miles away in the Indian Ocean, indicating Tehran has weapons with much longer range than once thought
By Samy Magdy, Sam Mednick and The Associated PressMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastA 19-year-old star wrestler and two other young men were hanged in Iran as regime continues with executions and crackdown on dissent during war
By Lee Keath, Julia Frankel, Sarah El Deeb and The Associated PressMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastIran war cut off helium from Qatar, and shortages will start to bite in a few weeks, threatening chip supply chains that fuel the AI boom
By Kelvin Chan and The Associated PressMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastThe U.S. is deploying 3 more amphibious assault ships and 2,500 additional Marines to the Mideast, joining more than 50,000 troops already there
By Jon Gambrell, Michelle L. Price, Julie Watson and The Associated PressMarch 21, 2026
war
CommentaryCompanies are now on the front lines of war. They need to act like it
By Jeremy BashMarch 21, 2026
powell
CommentaryThe Strait of Hormuz is the fourth large supply shock this decade. Welcome to the new era of global disorder
By Jon HilsenrathMarch 21, 2026
US President Donald Trump, left, and Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, speak to members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, March 20, 2026. US officials said the White House is sending more than 2,000 additional Marines to the Middle East as it weighs a plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub, a ground operation that would carry huge risks for President Donald Trump.
EnergyThree weeks into the Iran war that’s requested $200 billion, here’s what success for Trump might look like
By Jordan BlumMarch 21, 2026
Middle EastIt’s looking like Trump’s war created a private oil lane for China and other countries willing to play ball with Iran
By Jason MaMarch 20, 2026
murrow
Middle EastCBS News won’t celebrate the 100th anniversary of Edward R. Murrow’s radio network. It will cancel it instead
By David Bauder and The Associated PressMarch 20, 2026
A man walks between two luxury cars with the skyline of Dubai in the background.
RetailThe Middle East is one of the world’s fastest growing luxury markets—and the war in Iran may cut its sales in half, analysts say
By Sasha RogelbergMarch 20, 2026
A man holds a poster upside down that depicts Donald Trump as the devil.
Middle EastIran threatens to attack tourist sites across the world as Israel and U.S. kill top leaders
By Jon Gambrell, Sam Mednick, David Rising and The Associated PressMarch 20, 2026
Photo: A-10 Thunderbolt Warthog.
BankingAs the U.S. gears up for a potential ground war in Iran, $100-plus oil threatens ‘demand destruction’ — starting in Asia
By Jim EdwardsMarch 20, 2026
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026.
EconomyThe next time the Fed moves it’ll be to hike, according to one economist—whether or not Trump gets his new Fed chair
By Eleanor PringleMarch 20, 2026
trader
Middle EastOil approaches $115 per barrel as market realizes higher for longer is very possible
By Elaine Kurtenbach, David McHugh and The Associated PressMarch 19, 2026
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