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The second-largest utility company in the U.S. by consumers services over 9 million customers with gas and electric power across six states in the Southeastern U.S.

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F500-2020-153-Southern-Company

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The Atlanta-based Southern Co. stays true to its name as the dominant power and utility player in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi with a mix of gas-fired, coal, nuclear, and renewable power generation. Southern also distributes natural gas in Tennessee, Virginia, and elsewhere. But Southern’s power business of wholesale gas and renewables operates in 15 states from California to Maine, showcasing the company’s growth well outside of the legacy Deep South. And its expanding PowerSecure business offers microgrid services nationwide. Likewise, the Southern Linc and Telecom businesses offer telecommunications and fiber-optics services to meet increasing demand.

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Q3 2024

Southern (SO): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Southern

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Good afternoon. My name is Diego, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Southern Company third quarter 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Greg MacLeod, Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Thanks, Diego. Good afternoon and welcome to Southern Company's third quarter 2025.

Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company, and David Poroch, Chief Financial Officer. Let me remind you that we will make forward-looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs, and subsequent security filings. In addition, we will present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning, as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon to everyone, and we thank you for joining us for today's update. Southern Company continues to perform exceptionally well. As you can see from the materials that we released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings results for the third quarter, meaningfully above the estimate provided last quarter. We expect to deliver on our financial objectives for 2025. I have to say, Southern Company has an incredibly bright future ahead. Our state-regulated electric and gas utilities continue to provide long-term value to the more than 9 million customers across the Southeast and beyond with reliable and affordable energy. The vertically integrated markets in which our electric utilities operate continue to provide transparent and orderly processes and have consistently supported our ability to meet the needs of our growing economies and electric demand while providing premier reliability and resilient service day in and day out.

We've done all of this while keeping customers' rates more than 10% below the national average. Further, the rate plan extension at Georgia Power, which freezes base rates until at least 2029, excluding the recovery of storm-related costs, is a testament to the benefits of a constructive regulatory framework and our focus on balancing growth and affordability. Customers continue to be at the center of everything we do. Our focus on the customer underpins our disciplined approach to forecasting, pricing, contracting, and deploying resources to serve this once-in-a-generation growth opportunity. We continue to execute on those plans for the benefits of all of our customers. Over the last two months, we have four contracts with large local customers across Georgia and Alabama representing over 2 gigawatts of demand.

Consistent with our approach across Southern Company, these contracts include pricing and terms that are designed to pay for the incremental cost to serve new customer demand while also benefiting and protecting existing customers, helping to ensure growth does not come at the expense of affordability. I'll now turn the call over to David to give an update on our financial performance.

Thanks, Chris. Good afternoon, everyone. For the third quarter of 2025, our adjusted EPS was $1.60 per share, $0.10 above our estimate and $0.17 higher than the third quarter of 2024. The primary drivers for our performance for the quarter compared to last year were continued investment in our state-regulated utilities, along with strong customer growth and increased customer usage. These positive drivers were partially offset by milder-than-normal year-over-year weather, higher depreciation, amortization, and higher interest cost. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, our adjusted EPS was $3.76 compared to adjusted earnings of $3.56 for the same period in 2024. Year-to-date, revenue grew at our state-regulated electrics, partially influenced by customer growth and higher usage, which has added $0.12 year-over-year. A complete reconciliation of year-over-year earnings is included in the materials we released this morning.

Our adjusted EPS estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.54 per share, which, combined with our year-to-date performance, would represent full-year adjusted earnings at the top of our 2025 annual guidance range of $4.30 per share. Turning now to retail electricity sales, year-to-date, weather-normal retail electricity sales were 1.8% higher compared to the first three quarters of 2024. Year-over-year weather-normal retail electricity sales, which are on pace for the highest annual increase since 2010, excluding the pandemic, demonstrate growth across all three customer classes. In the third quarter alone, the commercial sector grew 3.5% on a weather-normal basis compared to the third quarter of 2024. This growth was driven partially by increased sales to existing and new data centers, which were up 17%.

Weather-normal residential sales also showed strong growth and were 2.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2024, bolstered by the addition of roughly 12,000 new electric customers in the quarter, substantially higher than historical trends. Electricity sales to individual customers also demonstrated continued strength, growing 1.5% in the quarter compared to the prior year. Year-to-date, all of our largest industrial customer segments are up year-over-year, including primary metals, paper, and transportation segments, which were each up 4% or higher through the first three quarters. Economic development activity across our electric service territories remains robust, with 22 companies making announcements to either establish or expand operations in our service territories during the third quarter, generating nearly 5,000 potential new jobs and representing expected capital investments totaling approximately $2.8 billion.

Clearly, between robust customer growth, increasing customer usage in the commercial and industrial segments, and the flourishing economic development activity in our service territories, the economy in the Southeast remains strong and extremely well-positioned. Transitioning to our financing, I'd like to give an update on our activities for the quarter, including the progress made addressing our future equity needs. In the third quarter, we issued $4 billion of long-term debt across Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Southern Company Gas, and Southern Power. The quality and credit strength of our subsidiaries continues to draw robust investor interest. Strong demand for our subsidiary securities ultimately translates into lower interest costs, which will provide benefits to customers and our regulated subsidiaries over the long term.

With these issuances, combined with what we issued in the first half of the year, we have fully satisfied our long-term debt financing needs for 2025 at each of our subsidiaries. On the equity financing front, we continue to be opportunistic in our proactive approach and have made significant progress on our plans to source equity in a disciplined and credit-supportive manner. This approach reflects our steadfast commitment to credit quality, including our strong investment-grade credit ratings across all three major rating agencies. We plan to continue utilizing equity or equity equivalents in support of our path towards 17% FFO to debt within our planning horizon. Recall this long-term credit quality objective is intended to provide cushion to the quantitative credit metric targets provided by the rating agencies.

As a reminder, on our July earnings call, we highlighted a cumulative equity need of $9 billion through 2029 to fund our $76 billion capital investment plan in a credit-supportive manner. Since our last earnings call, we priced in an additional $1.8 billion of equity through forward sales agreements under our At the Market or ATM program. These forward equity contracts contain final settlement dates that extend through mid-2027, with the ability to call sooner if we choose. This progress and flexibility it provides significantly reduces risk in our financing plans. When considering these ATM forward sales, other hybrid security issuances, and past and projected issuances under our internal equity plans, we have solidified over $7 billion of our $9 billion equity need through 2029. We are extremely well-positioned to address the remaining amounts in a shareholder-friendly manner.

Looking ahead and as we continue to take steps to require strong customer protections and credit provisions, our pipeline of large load data centers and manufacturers continues to be robust. Across our electric subsidiaries, the total pipeline remains more than 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by mid-2030s. Recall that our disciplined approach to forecasting assumes that only a fraction of this load pipeline materializes. As Chris mentioned earlier, in just the last two months, we have four contracts across Southern Company's system that represent over 2 gigawatts of load. As you can see, projects within our pipeline are maturing into executed contracts, which, along with their associated load ramps over the next several years, solidifies a substantial portion of our total forecasted electric sales growth of 8% annually through 2029, including average annual growth at Georgia Power of 12% through the same period.

Across Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, we now have contracts in place with large load customers representing 7 gigawatts through 2029, which ultimately ramped to 8 gigawatts in the 2030s, and we are in advanced discussions for several more gigawatts of load. I'll turn the call back over to Chris for further insights into the progress we are making on our plans.

Thank you, David. As David noted, we have made great progress with signing new large load contracts. Just last month, as a part of Georgia Power's ongoing RFP certification proceedings, Georgia Power filed an update to its load forecast. This update forecast continues to project the capacity need consistent with the 10 gigawatts of capacity resources being requested, which include five natural gas combined cycle units and 11 battery energy storage facilities. These proceedings are scheduled to have a final determination by the Commission by the end of this year. Separately, Alabama Power, following approvals from the Alabama Public Service Commission and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has completed the acquisition of the 900-megawatt Lindsay Hill natural gas generating facility to serve projected long-term capacity needs in the state.

In addition, construction continues on approximately 2.5 gigawatts of new generation in both Georgia and Alabama, which includes three natural gas combustion turbines and seven battery storage facilities, all of which are projected to go online over the next two years. Further, the South System 4 expansion at Southern Natural Gas within our Southern Company Gas subsidiary continues to move forward and will provide a valuable resource in serving the projected growth in our service territories. It is clear that we continue to make great progress executing on our plan as we deliver exceptional value to customers and investors. Consistent with our past practice and representative of our continued discipline, we expect to provide a complete update to our long-term plan during our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call this coming February.

As always, this update will include refreshes to our five-year capital investment outlook, sales forecast, and financing plans, as well as our 2026 and long-term EPS guidance. Consistent with our comments throughout 2025, as a part of that communication, we expect to provide additional clarity on our long-term earnings trajectory, which, as we've highlighted before, could translate into increasing the base from where our long-term EPS growth starts, which could be potentially as early as 2027. We have delivered exceptional operational and solid financial results through the first three quarters of the year. Just this week, Southern Company was named to Newsweek's World’s Most Trustworthy Companies 2025 list and was the highest-ranked energy company in the United States on that list.

Recognized companies were identified in an independent survey, and our inclusion at the top of this list is a testament to the hard work and unwavering commitment of our employees to uphold our values and operate each day at the highest standards of integrity, transparency, and accountability. We are honored by this recognition, and I am incredibly proud of our team and the execution across all of our businesses. In conclusion, we're extraordinarily well-positioned to finish the year strong. We have the team, we have the experience, and the skill to capture and execute on the exciting opportunities in front of us. We really have a bright and exciting future ahead. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct our question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from Steven Isaac Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please state your question.

Hey, Steve. I have no idea how I got on the list for questions because I didn't ask one, but I appreciate that.

I will say hello and all good. I didn't have any questions.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Carly S. Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking my question. Maybe to start just on the kind of load growth outlook in Georgia, I guess as you continue to lock in contracts under the new tariff structure there, can you talk a little bit about the reception from customers to the new structure and also how you approach the minimum bill components and ensure cost recovery from investments to support that load?

Yeah, sure. Hey, Carly, thanks. Great question. Like we've talked about, we've moved into a mode working underneath, at least at Georgia, working underneath the Georgia Public Service Commission new rules that came into place in the spring. What we're finding is customers totally get it. They understand that these are long-term commitments that we are making to deploy resources to serve their needs. I think these rules have really helped bring the more credit-quality, more serious counterparties up to the front of the line. We've just made great strides in structuring these contracts. What these contracts, the ones that we've signed now, have brought to the table are great protections for customers and our investors. The minimum bills cover all of our costs, whether or not the meter spins.

Once they hit their ramps and they start moving up, it's just very beneficial for the company and for our customers. We're really happy with the education effort that we've been able to accomplish over the past year. That's kind of the indicator as to why, to some extent, these contracts have taken a minute to get resolved, just because we're taking them along the journey of the structure and the need to be able to protect customers going forward through these contracts.

Great. Really helpful. Thank you. Maybe the follow-up just on the Georgia regulatory environment, just with the upcoming certifications and potential for incremental needs on the generation side for approval. How are you thinking about potential impacts from the PSC election and those processes as you think about the longer-term plan?

Yeah, Carly, let's start with the election question first. Elections in Georgia for the two commission seats will be held next Tuesday. We've had a couple of weeks of early voting. One of the things we talk a lot about in all of our states is that we have an incredibly long history of working constructively with whomever is in those seats. The five seats that are occupied in Georgia have always brought different views and perspectives. We expect that will, in fact, be the same. We'll work with whomever is there. As those positions are filled, they keep the citizens in mind as well as we keep our customers in mind. We have a lot of alignment there. We've always constructively worked with whomever has been elected in those seats. Do you want to take that apart?

Carly, you asked about status and kind of where we are. Recall that in September, Georgia Power filed an updated load forecast and testimony. That load forecast, using the same methodologies as several months ago, discounting forecasted load and risk-adjusting that, supported the need for the whole 10 gigawatts that we're requesting. That process is ongoing. We are going to have staff and other interveners file their testimony in the next couple of weeks, I think. We are scheduled to get a ruling from the commission, I think it's December 19th, latter part of December. All that should be wrapped up, and we'll see the results before year-end.

Great. Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies LLC. Please state your question.

Hey. Good afternoon, team. Thank you guys very much for the time. I appreciate it.

Hey, absolutely. Chris, can we talk about the rebasing? You used the same language again about as early as 2027. A lot of folks are very curious to understand what the metrics that you're looking at, whether it's operational or regulatory or just frankly incremental. Signed data center deals to get you comfortable to make it more of a firmer timeline for that rebasing. Any thoughts that you'd observe here on how you're thinking about that timeline?

Julien, I think we said, there's not kind of an exact list. There are a lot of things that we're going to look at to make that decision. How's the economy performing? What's happening with interest rates? Where are we with large load contracts? Just a number of factors that have to go into that consideration to give us the confidence and certainty to make that kind of decision. As we said before, clearly, there's a lot more meat on the bone in terms of where we are and how that decision needs to be made. That's something we'll work through, and we'll give you more clarity on that in our February call for next year.

Excellent. A little bit more of a nitpicky question. The $9 billion of equity you guys talked about here a second ago, in theory, if you were to get this incremental $5 billion, how do you think about that being reflected in that $9 billion?

The upside that we discussed in the second quarter call, Julien, you mean?

No. Actually, the upside, to the extent that the Georgia Public Service Commission approves all of our request, we had talked about that being about another $4 billion of incremental capital. That's likely to be financed kind of in that neighborhood of about 40% equity going forward. Once we get clarity on that, we'll be able to execute on that plan.

There's a little rounding area there, right, between the 4 and the 5 with gas, I think it is, if I understand.

You're exactly right, Julien. The 4 relates specifically to the remainder at request at the Georgia Public Service Commission. We've talked about opportunities within our FERC-regulated jurisdictions in the gas infrastructure business, and that's about $1 billion. You're exactly on point.

All right. Awesome, guys. Thank you very much. I'll turn it over there.

Your next question comes from Shar Pourreza [Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities] Please state your question.

Oh, not too bad. Not too bad. Thanks, Chris. Just real quick, let me shift gears to Southern Power. I mean, obviously, there is a lot of opportunities there, and you've got existing tolling agreements that start to expire. I guess, is there—how do we think about just the assets, the value of the assets, the pricing environment? Have conversations started? Is there opportunities to renegotiate these tolls ahead of the expirations, just given the value of the assets?

Yeah. Like we've talked about, we've got a very large portion of these assets under long-term contracts, about 95% or so through 2029. You're absolutely right. Where those opportunities exist, toward the end of those contracts, we'll start having some conversations to renegotiate those and renew those where appropriate. We're looking at a couple of live data points, right, in the RFP that was recently approved in Georgia. Southern Power, on a competitive bid basis, won two PPAs that go into effect in the early 2030s. Those are repriced about almost three times kind of where they sit today. Assuming that that market holds, we see great opportunity out in the future as those contracts lay off, and then we can renegotiate those and recommit those assets in the future.

Got it. Okay. Perfect. Lastly, obviously, you guys talk about the amount of gas that's needed in the Southeast, just around the SNG pipeline expansion. Any thoughts on timing there? How are the conversations going with the counterparties? Thanks.

The S&G expansion is going well on track. I think we've talked about that being about a $3 billion investment, 100% dollars. We're a 50% owner of that, and that project is going as scheduled. We expect great interest in contracting that capacity. That pipe runs, if you will, through our backyard, and we see that pipe being able to serve our needs as well as a number of other needs around the adjoining states. Looking forward to getting that project taken care of.

Okay. Perfect. Just last, if I could just slip and click one on the equity question. Chris, there's been obviously some pretty healthy transactions that have been done around partial asset sales. Some of your peers have done it. They have been successful. It's been accretive. Just want to get a sense on, have you considered sort of other avenues versus these equity or equity-like instruments? Even can parts of Southern Power be opportunities there? We're just focusing on equity and equity-like.

Shar, we don't comment on kind of speculative transactions or rumors or these broad questions. We're always looking to see who's the best owner of a given asset. That's something that we'll always look around corners and make those kinds of decisions. I think it's a little bit premature. Yeah, that's something that we'll always give deep considerations to. We like our cards. We like the portfolio that we have. There are some things we'll always take a look at.

Perfect. I appreciate it, guys. Thanks so much.

Your next question comes from Anthony Christopher Crowdell [Analyst, MIzuho Securities USA LLC] Please state your question.

Hey, good afternoon, team. What's going on?

Two easy ones, two softballs. You talk about on the fourth quarter call, you're going to give us a capital refresh and, I guess, potentially an update on the EPS CAGR. I think you mentioned that I don't want to put words in your mouth about maybe talking about a base starting in 2027. My question is, do we get 2027 guidance on the fourth quarter call?

Anthony, we've been talking about this opportunity for a good little while. As we've seen this kind of momentum around developing these contracts come to fruition, it is pretty unique. Those contracts that we've talked about are kind of coming into play in the latter part of our planning horizon. We do expect to be able to share some clarity on that. Like Chris talked about, a lot of things are in the mix. As we move forward in getting these contracts taken care of, we'll be able to share what that clarity looks like in February.

Great. Just last question. I apologize if I had the timing wrong. I believe from your last call to this call, I believe Moody's put the holding company on a negative outlook. Your equity needs you had already announced before. Does that negative outlook or maybe change if you have maybe pulling forward or the timing of that remainder $2 billion of equity?

Yeah. No, we've got what we believe is a really good path to get towards 17% FFO to debt. Let's remember, the fundamental belief at Southern Company that a premium equity starts with being a high-quality credit. It's important that we're going to retain these ratings that we have. We look to be able to build cushion toward that 16% threshold, that's our downgrade threshold. Our path is getting closer to 17%, and we see these qualitative factors and quantitative factors improving. Executing on the equity issuances is really encouraging. Bringing these contracts to fruition is encouraging. We're just going to continue to be proactive and disciplined in this approach. We're going to continue to share our progress with the rating agencies to make sure that they're aware of where we're getting or where we're going towards 17% over the planning horizon.

Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet [Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.] Please state your question.

Hi. Good morning. Good afternoon. Just one quick question here with regard to nuclear. I think Southern has talked in the past of the importance of nuclear development for the future of the country. We've seen support from the federal government start to move things forward in different parts of the country. I'm just wondering if there's any specific actions out there, support from the federal government or other entities that would make expanding Vogtle or pursuing SMR more attractive to Southern?

First of all, let me say I was incredibly excited about the actions that the administration took with Westinghouse and Cameco and Brookfield. In terms of that collaboration, I mean, I think all of those things are very important to bring forth new nuclear in this country. With this incredibly growing demand, I think it's so important that we take the steps necessary to build new units in this country. Between the action taken announced yesterday, a couple of days ago, as well as the president's executive orders on the regulatory side, all those things, I think, are very important and very instrumental in helping support the development of new nuclear in this country. As you look at bringing these new units on, these units could have 60 to 80-year lives. That will take us in, meet the current future demand, but also demand into the next century.

This is incredibly important to recognize the steps and the leadership role that the government must take to address risk and find ways to help mitigate that risk. I think it's incredibly important and real excited about the steps that are being taken by this administration.

Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Your next question comes from Andrew Marc Weisel with Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets. Please state your question.

Hey, everybody. Forgive me, I'm not sure if I heard an answer to that last question. Does all of that federal government activity change your appetite? I appreciate the industry commentary, but what about your appetite?

Thank you for clarifying. That wasn't my original question. My original question was on slide nine. I'm interested. You showed the demand from large load customers for 2029 and then the mid-2030s. What strikes me is it's a fairly small change, only one incremental gigawatt of contracted and one additional gigawatt of committed. How much of that would you say is the same projects ramping up their demand versus an incremental project or projects coming online between those years? To what degree would you say the small increase is conservatism or risk adjusting or however you want to call it? It just seems like a fairly small delta relative to the trends in commentary.

Yeah. No, I get where you're coming from. What we wanted to try to display in this chart, so I appreciate your question, is that the entire 7 gigawatts on the 2029 column is included in the 2030 column. What we're trying to reflect there is ramp-up timing, and our expectations and projections based on the contracts that we have, as well as in the committed section, that's reflective of the conversations that we've been having and the modeling that we've been doing through the negotiations. Those ramp-ups do take a minute. Those are projected to kind of be over about a five-year period. It's a little different from contract to contract because, obviously, these are tailor-made contracts, bilateral negotiations, not necessarily at all a unique large load tariff. These are tailor-made and reflect our expectations around the ramp-up.

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please state your question.

Southern (SO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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