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The second-largest utility company in the U.S. by consumers services over 9 million customers with gas and electric power across six states in the Southeastern U.S.

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F500-2020-153-Southern-Company

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The Atlanta-based Southern Co. stays true to its name as the dominant power and utility player in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi with a mix of gas-fired, coal, nuclear, and renewable power generation. Southern also distributes natural gas in Tennessee, Virginia, and elsewhere. But Southern’s power business of wholesale gas and renewables operates in 15 states from California to Maine, showcasing the company’s growth well outside of the legacy Deep South. And its expanding PowerSecure business offers microgrid services nationwide. Likewise, the Southern Linc and Telecom businesses offer telecommunications and fiber-optics services to meet increasing demand.

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Southern (SO): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Southern

southern

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

Greg McLeod, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Paul. Good afternoon, and welcome to Southern Company's first quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company and Dan Tucker, Chief Financial Officer. Let me remind you that we will make forward looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10 ks, Form 10 Q and subsequent securities filings.

In addition, we will present non GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. As you can see from the materials that we released this morning, we reported adjusted earnings results for the first quarter above our estimate, with year over year growth reflected across all our major businesses. The Southeast has a track record of economic resilience, and we continue to be encouraged by robust economic development activity that includes a sizable large load pipeline. Our state regulated electric utilities continue to experience customer growth, and the service territories that we are privileged to serve remain attractive to a wide variety of commercial and industrial customers.

Additionally, the reliability and resilience of our vertically integrated and well planned grid are proving hard to beat and customers, especially data center customers, are increasingly acknowledging that reality with their enthusiasm for our electric service territories. Before I turn the call over to Dan, we know there's a great deal of interest in tariffs and any potential implications to our business. There's clearly policy uncertainty, and in turn, our assessments of tariff implications have varied. For our base capital plan, we currently estimate a range of 1% to 3% of potential cost increases with the top of the range representing the higher end of tariffs that existed for only a few days last month. Among the advantages for a company of our scale is a large portfolio of suppliers and strong vendor relationships to help navigate such challenges collaboratively and proactively.

For example, while the majority of materials being sourced from Mexico and Canada qualify for zero tariffs because they comply with The United States Mexico Canada agreement or USMCA, the company is working proactively to get any remaining vendors or purchases compliant as well. Our full complement of potential mitigations includes existing project contingencies, contractual provisions, potential regulatory approaches, and options to deploy alternative resources. Our commitment to affordability, balanced with our focus on reliability, could also influence the pace of our capital deployment to mitigate the impact of tariffs on our customers. Overall, we do not expect a material impact to our forecast. Our financial outlook remains strong, and we remain focused on disciplined execution.

The orderly processes and constructive regulatory frameworks in our service territories, combined with our experienced team and our customer centric business model, should serve us well as we prioritize reliable and affordable energy for our 9,000,000 plus customers. Dan, I'll now turn the call over to you for a financial update.

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. For the first quarter of twenty twenty five, our adjusted EPS was a dollar 23 per share, dollars $0.02 0 higher than the first quarter of twenty twenty four and $0.03 above our estimate. The primary drivers of our performance for the quarter compared to last year were investments in our state regulated utilities and weather related impacts, which added $08 year over year due due to a milder than normal first quarter in 2024 and a slightly colder than normal first quarter for 2025. This was partially offset by higher operating costs and depreciation and amortization. A complete reconciliation of year over year earnings is included in the materials we released this morning.

Our adjusted EPS estimate for the second quarter is $0.85 per share. Overall, weather normal retail electricity sales to all classes were 0.3% lower than the first quarter of twenty twenty four. The lower sales for the quarter were driven largely by usage impacts on our residential customer class, which was partially offset by customer additions. These use per customer trends in the first quarter were consistent with our sales forecast for the year, including the approximately 1% year over year negative impact of having an extra day in the first quarter of twenty twenty four, which affected all customer segments year over year. We also believe return to office trends and customers' proactive management of their energy consumption in response to inflation and economic uncertainty continue to be factors as well.

Commercial and industrial sales were higher compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four as we saw continued strength in data center sales, which were up 11% year over year, office buildings, which were up 4%, and the transportation sector, which increased 4% year over year, primarily driven by the Hyundai Meta plant in Southeast Georgia beginning production activities several months ago. More broadly, the economy in the Southeast remains well positioned with unemployment rates and recent population growth in our service territories better than the national averages. Additionally, economic development activity in the first quarter was robust, with announcements totaling over $11,000,000,000 of capital investment and more than 4,000 new jobs announced in our electric service territories. As we look ahead, our large load pipeline across our electric subsidiaries, which includes data centers and large manufacturers, continues to grow, totaling more than 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by the mid twenty thirties. With project commitments totaling 10 gigawatts and ongoing advanced discussions for even more, interest from large load customers and our service territories continues to be robust.

As we've consistently communicated, our disciplined approach to forecasting means that our sales forecast only assumes a fraction of this pipeline materializes. Georgia Power's ongoing 2025 integrated resource plan or IRP filed earlier this year includes continued investment in the existing fleet with proposed plant life extensions, upgrades for more capacity at existing nuclear and natural gas facilities, and the modernization of hydro facilities as we continue to plan our resources to economically and reliably serve our customers for the long term. Resolution of the 2025 IRP is expected in mid July. Also in Georgia, the regulatory process continues for 13 gigawatts of new energy resources via competitive requests for proposals or RFPs. Various company owned resources were submitted into these valuations.

Successful bidders are expected to be notified in the coming months for a substantial portion of these RFPs, including 8.5 gigawatts of all source or technology agnostic energy resources. Georgia Power expects to file for certification of all projects awarded under these RFPs with the Georgia Public Service Commission in July. Considering the timeline of these ongoing Georgia regulatory processes, we expect to be positioned to provide additional color on potential updates to our capital expenditure outlook and associated financing plan on our second quarter earnings call. All else being equal, this potential incremental capital and continued economic development momentum are key to supporting our potential reevaluation of the base for our long term EPS growth as early as 2027. Before I turn the call back over to Chris, I'd like to provide an update on our financing activities through the first quarter.

Our state regulated electric subsidiaries have issued $2,200,000,000 of long term debt year to date, which is nearly half of twenty twenty five's projected financing needs for those entities in our base plan. Quality and credit strength of our subsidiaries continue to draw robust investor interest, providing strong access to capital and supporting lower interest cost for the benefit of customers. At the parent company, we have issued approximately $2,400,000,000 of junior subordinated notes or JSNs year to date, which receive 50% equity treatment from the rating agencies. We've also entered into forward contracts through our at the market program or ATM for the sale of an additional $1,000,000,000 of common stock with settlements extending as late as the second half of twenty twenty six. Collectively, the ATM and the JSNs equate to $2,200,000,000 of equity and equity equivalents.

Combined with approximately 350,000,000 of annual equity issuances we forecast through our internal plans, we have a clear path in place to fully address the $4,000,000,000 5 year equity needs in our base plan. Our disciplined approach in sourcing equity reinforces our commitment to maintaining strong investment grade credit ratings and our journey to 17% FFO to debt while also focused on delivering value to shareholders. And we are well positioned to continue to finance any incremental growth opportunities above our base plan in a credit supportive and shareholder focused fashion. I'll now turn the call back over to Chris.

Thank you, Dan. Last week, the Southern Company board of directors approved an 8¢ per share increase in our annual common dividend, raising the annualized rate to $2.96 per share. This action marks our twenty fourth consecutive annual increase, and this will now be seventy eight consecutive years dating back to 1948. Southern Company has paid a dividend that is equal to or greater than the previous year. We are incredibly proud of our dividend track record, which continues to be an integral part of Southern Company's long term value proposition.

Southern Company has consistently delivered regular, predictable, and sustainable adjusted results, and our start to this year provides a solid foundation to continue executing on our goals for 02/2025 and beyond. We remain very excited about the future of this company. Thank you as always for your interest in Southern Company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. Session. Our first question is from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Doing well. Thanks. Thanks for taking the time. Maybe just to start on the 2Q EPS guide, the $0.85 represents fairly sizable downside relative to what you guys did last 2Q and '24. Could you just talk a little bit about the puts and takes there that drive that estimate, particularly relative to the stronger 1Q print?

Yeah. Absolutely, Carly. This is Dan. Thanks for the question. So there's two big factors in there, really.

One is weather. Year over year, there's a pretty substantial weather differential. You know, if you if you're thinking about what normal weather in our forecast relative to a really strong and a warmer than normal quarter a year ago. And then the other one is really just what I'd characterize as timing. There are kind of recurring normal course transactions that happen within the Georgia transmission system that is mutually owned amongst all the parties in the state, not so Georgia Power, the municipals, entity that represents the coops.

And there are ongoing transactions to transfer ownerships of assets kind of commensurate with their load. So we had a a sizable transaction that occurred in the second quarter of last year, and there's none anticipated similarly in the second quarter of this year. So those are the two big drivers.

Got it. Great. That's helpful. Thanks for the clarity on that piece. And then maybe just on the the Georgia Power load pipeline, just any update you can provide in terms of, you know, size of the pipeline, what's contracted, what's broken ground, similar to the disclosures that you guys have provided in prior quarters?

And then just more broadly, anything you could share on conversations you're having with your data center customers in Georgia and if there's been any change in tone just given the macro environment relative to last quarter?

Chris, why don't you start with the any change in tone, and I'll I'll hit the numbers.

Yeah. Carly, I mean, I I think what we've seen is that we've not seen a shift in tone. I mean, I think as you've seen a few hyperscalers make some announcements the past couple of days about capital budgets, I think that's what we have seen in terms of our conversations all across our service territory with these data center hyperscaler customers in terms of looking to continue to make those investments to support their business strategies, now and into the future. So we still see a robust degree of high economic activity in our service territory.

Yeah. And then when it comes to the pipeline itself, Carla, you asked about the the Georgia pipeline. I mean, in total, again, going out to the mid twenty thirties, it's about 52 gigawatts in in Georgia alone. The, you know, contracted piece is, four gigawatts for that same number. The the committed is eight gigawatts.

I think the more interesting thing that you'll see when Georgia Power makes its filing here in the coming weeks is actually a a shift forward in in interest. So the the more near term pipeline, the 2028, '20 '20 '9 kind of number is actually moving up, which is actually an an interesting and also exciting thing to see happening in the pipeline.

Awesome. Thanks so much for that. Appreciate it.

Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies LLC.

Hey. Hey. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks so much for the time. I appreciate it.

Nicely done again. Gotta hand it to you. Hey. So let me let me just follow-up a little bit where Carly just left it off there. Because I know in the quarter, there's been a lot of talk about Microsoft and others that you're dealing with directly in your service territory, and there's a perception.

You just hit it. But are you seeing any churn in the underlying composition of of who and the kind of data centers and the geography that you're seeing again? I I know folks are, at times, are are super fixated on one or two out there. But listening to your comments here, I mean, even if you got fixated on one specific site, seems like you're still seeing an aggregate acceleration in the opportunity. But I'd love to hear you reconciling your comments against some of against some of the concerns about, you know, one or two discrete data points here.

And and, Jun, I I think you said it very well. I mean, there's an, I guess, aggregate, I use the word diversity of of of customers. I mean, from the one or two or three or four hyperscalers to developers as well. I mean so I think we see kind of a wide diverse nature of of interest that is showing up in our territory, and that momentum continues to exist. I mean, so it's not just one or two.

It's a I think it's what we see is across the board in terms of the conversation and and the interest that we are seeing.

Awesome. Yeah. And I I appreciate the the commentary as possible here. In in, you know, you guys provided some nice details on on equity and overall financing plan here. Can you elaborate a little bit as you think about marrying up an improving balance sheet with your comments about the the rebates potentially in in '27?

When and how do you think about getting to that 17% and and reconcile that against, you know, the potential for rebates? Do you think you'd be at that 17% by the time you kinda, you know, reevaluate, shall we say, your your EPS commitments here?

June, I think of it more as having line of sight on it, and I think we've said this before. So it everything in in kind of a a measured way and and financing all of our capital with a, you know, the the right mix to kinda get there. The the biggest, as we've highlighted before, the biggest driver of improvement in the short term is really debt associated with certain regulatory assets rolling off. Right now on the books, there's about $2,000,000,000 really just at Georgia Power alone between remaining under recovered fuel from a few years ago. There's about a billion dollars of that.

And then a little over $800,000,000 of storm costs from Hurricane Helene. As those costs get recovered over the next few years, that naturally on its own kinda brings the number up. The other offsetting factor will be, and I think this was a bit implicit in your question, is the capital plan. And particularly if we have incremental opportunities to deploy capital, that could adjust the shape of our journey to 17% a little bit and perhaps push it out a year or two. But I think getting to the heart of your question, by the time we get to 2027 or whenever that time comes, will we be there?

No. But will we need to have confidence that we can see it in the foreseeable future? Absolutely. And I think that's how we'll be positioned.

Yeah. Thank you for understanding the gist of it. Appreciate it, Dan. Best of luck, Chris. Nicely done.

Our next question is from Nick Campanella with Barclays.

Hey. So, you know, question on the rebates. Just trying to kinda understand a little bit more what that would look like. And I guess the question is is do do you anticipate kind of being at the higher end of your five to seven through 27, and that would kind of equate to, like, a new higher base, for '27 to grow off of. Is it just gonna be based off of actuals and where you get to?

just looking for more more color on the interim.

Sure, Nick. And, yeah, and what I'll do is I'll just I'll just kinda restate the way we said it on our last call because, again, you know, nothing has changed in the the the ten weeks since then in terms of how we think about this. It's to the extent that this incremental capital opportunity that we pointed to emerges and to the extent that this data center, in particular, Momentum continues, all else being equal, yes, we believe that in the the back half of our plan, we could be positioned at or near the top of our existing range. Now we also pointed to headwinds in the near term, like parent company interest refinancings, and that's why the immediate near term is not up there. This is really about the back half.

If that is what we see and where we are and if kind of like going back to Julian's question about having line of sight, if that appears to be a sustainable trajectory, then that provides us the opportunity to potentially rebase the starting point for five to 7% growth.

Okay. No. That's helpful. And then just, Georgia Power rate case, just just wanted to make sure, are you guys still on track to kinda that at the end of, June or or by July 1? And has anything kinda changed there in, your rate case strategy?

Nick, yeah, I think you said it very well. As required by the 22 rate case order, we're working towards the filing this summer. So it'd be that early July time frame. So everything is on track to to do that and to make sure we comply with that order, which but you said it very well.

Our next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Maybe just kind of picking up on the last point there with regards to the Georgia Power rate case. Maybe, know, bill pressures and focus, I guess, nationwide. And just wondering any thoughts you could share there with levers that you could potentially pull to manage customer bills there? Is the potential to kind of, you know, move timing around or rate crease rate changes to coincide with fuel cost recovery rolling off or just any other thoughts there?

And once again, I mean, I think you're acknowledging all the factors and the variables and the puts and takes that will be on a consideration as we look at the filing. I mean, it's a little bit too early to say what the exact filing will look like. But, yeah, I mean, one of the things we we think about is the pricing of these large load growth, how that can impact and help us with our focus on affordability. Yes. I mean, we do have the fuel case, fuel adjustment occurring that we'll recognize next year in June of next year.

So that's a factor to also be considered. We also have storm recovery related to hurricane Aileen that has to be dealt with. So, I mean, I think you've acknowledged a lot of the factors that will go into what this filing could look like, but it's just way too early to kinda speak to exactly what the nature of the filing how how it will come together.

Got it. No. That that's helpful. Thank you. And then, just curious on your outlook for the IRA, and any potential changes there, how that could impact Southern, you know, particularly as it relates to transferability, I guess, is in focus for the market.

Just any thoughts in general from what you see or what you guys are thinking at this point.

Yeah. Jeremy, I'll hit transferability first and let Chris weigh on any kind of broader policy commentary. But on on transferability, we're we just aren't that reliant on it. We we certainly take advantage of it where we can, and we we've got a great program in place to monetize tax credits as efficiently and quickly as possible. But if for some reason that was not available to us based on our current base plan, I mean, the the impact, FFO to debt, let's say, is a a basis point or two or or or, I'm sorry, 10 to 20 basis points or so.

And so it it's just not that meaningful, but it's important. And and it's when it comes to projects that we're doing in the regulated space, it's good for customers to have that in place. It helps, obviously, monetize things and keep the balance sheet efficient, and and that's good for everybody. So we're we're we're certainly doing what we can to be a part of that conversation and to express the importance. Chris?

No. I mean, as Dan talked to me, as as a part of that conversation that Dan referred to me, we continue to engage with policymakers in administration, but also as well as on Capitol Hill ex expressing and explaining the value and the benefits of these credits and tax policy in terms of value goes directly to customers. And as we talk about affordability and our strategy there, making sure there's full recognition or understanding that the benefits of these credits go directly to our customers. And so we are I mean, we have no idea politically how this is gonna play out with all the issues that are going on in Washington, but we continue to spend a lot of time making sure we're telling the story and helping people understand the value and benefits of these tax provisions.

Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Our next question is from Andrew Wiesel with Scotiabank.

Hey. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm hoping to elaborate a little bit on the commentary on demand trends. Even after adjusting for the leap day, each customer class saw a sequential slowdown. Data centers, in particular, still grew at a double digit pace, but down from 17% last quarter to 11%.

Can you talk about that a little bit? I realized the year year ago weather was atypical, certainly skewed the residential comps, but that shouldn't matter as much for C and I. Can you elaborate a little bit?

Yeah. I don't think there's anything to read into it, Jeremy. Again, if you adjust commercial and industrial in particular for that leap day effect just for the first quarter, again, these are just quarter numbers, not kind of twelve months ended numbers. It's almost a full 1%, so up a percent and a half or so. The underlying stuff, like you mentioned, data centers, look.

You're you're doing growth year over year on an increasing ramp. Right? And so you're not comparing to the same numbers you were a quarter ago. You're comparing off a higher base a year ago, and so it the numbers aren't gonna necessarily align or continue to escalate in that fashion. In total volume, they continue to go up.

You know, other things relative to our our forecast, look, there there's things that are just, again, timing related. There are some large industrial outages, not economy related, just kind of operational related. There was a delay in a a steel manufacturer that was expected to come on in the first quarter that is baked into our numbers for the full year that's expected now in the next several months. And so from our seat, nothing in the first quarter results gives us any pause about any kind of systemic trends we're seeing in the economy or underlying customer base.

Okay. That's good to hear. And then similarly, the large load pipeline, the slides say well over 50. Dan, did

Did you say 52 gigawatts now? I'm not sure if I maybe misheard you, but maybe if you could just get a little more detail there. How are you you're you're being very clear in the tone that activity remains robust. Maybe you can get a little more detail in the numbers.

Yeah. And I think the tone, Andrew, is what's more important than numbers. The I answered a question earlier specific to the Georgia pipeline that we make filings on. So that's 52 gigawatts on its own. The the characterization we made in the prepared remarks is for the total consolidated pipeline across all three electric service territories, and we said over 50.

It's and it grew quarter over quarter. In fact, it was over 50 last quarter. It's over 50 this quarter, but it's a bigger bigger over 50. We're trying to be a little less precise about the total because, look, everyone has acknowledged that these pipelines include some degree of double counting. They include some degree of speculative projects, and that's where it's really important to really focus on the way in a very measured way that we are only including and counting on and planning for a small fraction of these numbers.

So we're trying not to get hung up too much on the big headline number and focus more on kind of the underlying tangible trends that we're seeing within that pipeline.

Okay. As long as you're clarifying that they are in fact rising. That's reassuring. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Our next question is from David Arcara with Morgan Stanley.

Hey, David. Hey. Thanks so much. I guess maybe on, on data center activity, I was just wondering if there had been any changes following the modifications of the rate structure that you've now implemented in Georgia? Any feedback on that?

You know, is that manageable for the industry, to work to work with now in that state?

Yeah, Dave. This is Dan. It's just it's early days still, and and so it's important to understand kind of the the journey we've been on there. So very much earlier this year, we highlighted the the rules, which the commission approved, which were very kind of high level rules to be the basis of a framework. What has happened since then is there's been an actual more detailed framework that's been developed by the the public utility staff working with the company to kind of create what what is essentially a tariff framework.

It doesn't have specific pricing in there, but it is a a a framework for doing this. That just got finalized a couple of weeks ago. April 15, I think, is was was the date that it happened. So in terms of the details kind of being absorbed by and understood well by potential customers, that process is underway now. So it's a little early for reaction.

But I do think some of the reaction we've some feedback we've gotten. You know, we talk a lot about orderly processes. This this framework does provide another degree of order and certainty as we engage with these customers, and I think you've seen another state and others consider looking at deploying approving very similar rules and regulations. So we think to to somewhat of a in a market that's that's evolving to bring this kind of certainty really brings some discipline and puts us in a position, as we always say, to make sure as we engage with these customers, we're gonna we wanna provide benefits to all of our customers. So we think there's great value in in these rules and regulations, in this framework that's been approved by the commission.

Yeah. And and, David, as you heard me answer Andrew's question, I mean, over the last three months, the pipeline has grown. And and the the nature of these rules, while not the details have not been out there, the nature of them has been for three months, and that growth has continued to occur.

That makes sense. You know, separately, I was curious. You know, is there any feedback that you'd offer on, what you're seeing in the RFPs that are underway? There's just some been so many moving pieces around, like tariffs, you know, inflation, price increases for equipment. So I'm just wondering, you know, are there any changes in the in the, preference, like technology preference or strategy or the, you know, the split amongst solar, storage, natural gas, as you're kind of executing against these RFPs?

Yeah. And, David, unfortunately, we can't speak to the RFP process. It's it's very intentionally done kind of by an independent evaluator, very confidentially, a lot of trade secret information. So disclosing or answering any of the questions you just asked, I think, would would be stepping outside the bounds of what we we were allowed to do.

Okay. Got it. We'll, revisit, as you get, toward the end there, but I appreciate it. So

And I will just say, David, look. What's important about the the RFP itself being the nature is it's all source. Right? And so it it does inherently have in it a multitude of technologies and and options.

So at the end of the day, given all the factors you've listed, that independent evaluator and the commission will have options to kind of address.

Southern (SO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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