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Marvell Technology was founded in 1995 in Santa Clara, California, originally to design silicon for hard-disk drive read channels. Over time, it evolved from a storage-focused chip maker into a leading fabless semiconductor company centered on data infrastructure. Today, Marvell designs custom silicon for compute, connectivity, storage, and security, serving cloud, carrier, enterprise, automotive, and industrial customers. Its portfolio includes networking processors, switches, Ethernet controllers and PHYs, optical interconnects, SSD and HDD controllers, and related system solutions.

Q2 2027

Q1 2027

Q4 2026

Marvell Technology (MRVL): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Marvell Technology

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Good afternoon, and welcome to Marvell Technology, Inc. fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Ashish Saran, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marvell's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Matt Murphy, Marvell's Chairman and CEO, Willem Meintjes, CFO, Chris Koopmans, President and COO, and Sandeep Bharathi, President, Data Center Group. Let me remind everyone that certain comments made today include forward-looking statements which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Please review the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our earnings press release, which we filed with the SEC today and posted on our website, as well as the most recent Form 8-K, Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other documents filed by us from time to time with the SEC. We do not intend to update our forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will refer to certain Non-GAAP financial measures.

A reconciliation between our GAAP and Non-GAAP financial measures is available on our earnings press release. Let me now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the quarter. Matt.

Thanks, Ashish, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin by extending a warm welcome to the Celestial AI and Xconn teams. We recently closed both acquisitions and the teams are working closely together with joint product roadmap discussions in full swing with customers. These highly strategic additions further strengthen our technology platform and significantly enhance Marvell's position in the rapidly emerging AI scale-up networking market. I'll provide additional detail on these acquisitions later in today's call. Now, turning to our results and business outlook. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Marvell delivered record revenue of $2.219 billion, reflecting 7% sequential growth. Revenue exceeded the midpoint of guidance driven by our strong demand in our data center end market. As a result, Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $0.01.

Turning to our full year results, fiscal 2026 was an exceptional year for Marvell. Revenue grew 42% year-over-year to approximately $8.2 billion as reported and approximately 45% year-over-year, excluding the divested automotive Ethernet business. Our Data Center revenue surpassed $6 billion, growing 46% year-over-year. This performance was driven by robust demand for our interconnect, switching and storage products, along with a strong ramp in our custom business, which doubled in fiscal 2026. As we begin fiscal 2027, we are seeing very strong demand across our entire Data Center portfolio, with bookings accelerating at a record pace. This robust demand is reflected in our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, with total company revenue forecasted now to grow 8% sequentially at the midpoint to $2.4 billion.

Looking ahead, we expect to grow revenue every quarter this fiscal year at a similarly strong sequential rate, which would result in Q4 revenue exceeding $3 billion exiting this year. This forecast also implies that our year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027. We now expect overall Marvell revenue in fiscal 2027 to grow more than 30% year-over-year, approaching $11 billion. Notably, this outlook is meaningfully higher than what we communicated in our prior updates. Some of you may recall in September 2025, during an investor call hosted by JPMorgan, we provided a fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of approximately $9.5 billion, which at that time was received positively as it was significantly higher than the market expectations.

In our December 2025 earnings call, as CapEx growth forecasts continued to increase, we updated our fiscal 2027 revenue forecast to approximately $10 billion. Today's outlook approaching $11 billion raises our forecast by almost another $1 billion. Importantly, this outlook is driven by Marvell's organic businesses as the recently closed acquisitions are not expected to contribute meaningfully until fiscal 2028. The increase in our overall revenue outlook is all being driven by our data center business. Since December 2025, cloud CapEx expectations have continued to increase. We have seen our bookings continue to accelerate. As a result, we now see our fiscal 2027 data center revenue growing by 40% year-over-year. We expect all our key product lines in data center to be stronger than our prior outlook.

Notably, we expect our interconnect business to grow more than 50% year-over-year, well above our prior expectation of 30% growth. For our communications and other end market, we expect 10% revenue growth in fiscal 2027. Looking ahead to fiscal 2028, while we assume the rate of CapEx growth moderates from the current fiscal year, we expect continued robust data center revenue growth for Marvell. We expect our interconnect business to significantly outpace cloud CapEx growth, our custom business to at least double year-over-year and our Ethernet switching business to continue to ramp meaningfully. In addition, we expect Celestial AI and Xconn to contribute approximately $250 million in aggregate revenue in fiscal 2028.

As a result, we expect data center revenue in fiscal 2028 to grow close to 50% year-over-year. Achievement of our forecast would result in 3 straight years of data center revenue growth compounding at well over 40%. For our communications end market, we continue to expect low single-digit percentage revenue growth in fiscal 2028, consistent with our prior view. In aggregate, we expect Marvell's overall revenue in fiscal 2028 to grow close to 40% year-over-year, reaching approximately $15 billion, roughly $2 billion higher than the outlook we provided in our December earnings call and driving our Non-GAAP EPS to well over $5. This outlook is based on demand we are seeing now and designs that are already in execution.

As we progress through the fiscal year, we plan on remaining closely aligned with our customers as we expect them to continue to invest in AI infrastructure. With that, I'll provide more context on our numerous growth drivers across our end markets, beginning with Data Center. In our Data Center end market, we delivered record fourth quarter revenue of $1.65 billion, representing 9% sequential growth and 21% year-over-year growth. Revenue exceeded our guidance, driven by increased demand across our interconnect portfolio. We achieved sequential growth across all key product lines, including optical interconnects, custom silicon, switching, and storage. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we expect our Data Center revenue to grow approximately 10% sequentially, including a seasonal sequential decline in on-premise Data Center revenue.

Let me now highlight the broader trends across both our established data center businesses and our newer growth initiatives, including recent acquisitions. I'll organize the discussion into three categories: interconnect, switching, and custom. I'll begin with interconnect, where we offer the industry's broadest and most comprehensive high-speed connectivity portfolio, addressing scale-out, scale-across, and scale-up networking. In our scale-out PAM franchise, demand remains robust for our 800G products. We are also seeing very strong bookings from multiple tier 1 customers for our 1.6T solutions, which entered production in the second half of fiscal 2026. Reflecting this demand and our first to market technology leadership, we expect our 1.6T revenue to ramp very rapidly in fiscal 2027, with substantial additional growth projected in fiscal 2028.

As a result, we expect to continue to maintain leadership in the PAM market at 1.6T, just like we have at every PAM generation. Marvell is the first company to productize 200G per lane technology, enabling the 1.6T transition now underway. While this generation is expected to continue to grow through the end of the decade, Marvell has already demonstrated 400G per lane technology. We expect that this will position us to enable the industry's subsequent transition to 3.2T once 1.6T reaches full maturity. To support campus-wide data centers requiring longer reach than traditional PAM solutions, Marvell has introduced Coherent Light, optimized for 2-kilometer-20-kilometer applications within a highly power-efficient envelope.

We have already begun shipping first-generation 1.6T Coherent Light products and are now introducing a second generation with integrated MACsec security. Turning to scale across interconnects, a technology we pioneered with our 100 Gig DCI modules, we continue to lead the market with coherent 400 Gig and newer 800 Gig solutions. We are winning new customers and expect to supply DCI modules to all five major U.S. hyperscalers this year. We see significant long-term growth in this market as the global data center footprint expands and bandwidth requirements between data centers continues to increase. Industry forecasts project the DCI pluggable TAM to grow by more than 5x by calendar 2030, with speeds doubling each generation and feature complexity increasing, including the integration of MACsec.

To that end, earlier today, we announced our latest innovations in scale across interconnects, including the industry's first secure 1.6T ZR and ZR+ DCI modules powered by our new 2nm coherent DSP. We also introduced a new 2nm 800G DSP, which enables second generation lower power 800G DCI modules. DCI modules powered by these 2nm MACsec-enabled DSPs are expected to begin sampling later this year. This positions Marvell to maintain technology leadership, supported by our proven expertise in large-scale manufacturing of these highly specialized and complex modules. Now let's move to scale up interconnects, which is an entirely new and rapidly emerging market. We are very excited about what we believe to be a massive opportunity unlocked by Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, or PF technology, as well as growing customer traction for our AEC and retimer solutions.

As discussed last quarter, Celestial AI's PF technology is expected to enable large-scale commercial deployment of CPO for scale-up connectivity starting next year. Our chiplets will be co-packaged into both custom XPUs and the scale-up switches connecting them together on both sides of the link. With the acquisition now complete, Marvell's engineering and operations teams are fully engaged in bringing Celestial's first-generation chiplet into high-volume manufacturing. We remain on track for our forecast for our CPO revenue from Celestial to reach a $500 million annualized run rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2028, doubling to a $1 billion annualized run rate by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2029. We have seen strong interest from a broad range of customers in Celestial's Photonic Fabric technology following the deal announcement.

We look forward to updating you on our progress in the scale-up interconnect market, which we believe could exceed $10 billion by 2030. In the AEC market, we have secured design wins with three Tier 1 U.S. hyperscalers and several additional customers, including model builders and hardware OEMs. We are also seeing strong traction for our retimers. As a result, we expect combined AEC and retimer revenue to more than double year-over-year in fiscal 2027. We continue to innovate through our Golden Cable initiative, a strategic program that delivers a complete solution, including industry-leading software and validated reference designs, enabling ecosystem partners to rapidly design and deploy AEC products at scale. Hyperscale customers benefit from access to multiple high volume cable OEMs offering fully compatible AECs, both on the same high-performance Marvell DSP and reference design.

Data Center switching, we delivered strong growth in fiscal 2026, with revenue exceeding $300 million, driven entirely by scale-out applications. Given sustained demand for our current 12.8T products and a strong ramp of next generation 51.2T products, we now expect Data Center switch revenue in fiscal 2027 to surpass $600 million, up from the $500 million we had indicated last quarter. We are seeing strong engagement from both existing and new customers for our 51.2T platform and our upcoming 100T platform, which we expect to begin sampling in the first half of this fiscal year. Our 100T switch delivers industry-leading power efficiency and lower latency, attributes that are especially critical for AI applications.

In scale-up switching, the combination of Marvell and Xconn creates a significantly larger team to address rapidly emerging UAL and Ethernet-based opportunities. UALink builds on decades of PCIe ecosystem development and incorporates high-speed interface innovations from Ethernet to meet the bandwidth, latency, and reach requirements of next-generation accelerated infrastructure. Xconn expands Marvell's switch team with deep PCIe switching expertise, enabling comprehensive support to customers building next-generation AI platforms. We are fast-tracking our scale-up switch roadmap by leveraging our extensive experience in developing large radical size scale-out switch chips and best-in-class in-house high-performance SerDes. We remain on track to sample our UALink 115T solutions in the second half of this fiscal year, with volume production expected in fiscal 2028. In parallel, we continue to advance the Ethernet-based roadmap with key customers.

We are able to further enhance our scale-up roadmap by enabling integration of our CPO technology from Celestial directly with our switches, delivering a purpose-built, fully optimized end-to-end optical scale-up platform. Xconn also adds advanced PCIe and CXL switch solutions, another completely incremental TAM from Marvell. Their PCIe 6.0 and CXL 3.1 solution is based on a monolithic switch architecture supporting up to 256 lanes, delivering the industry's highest radix and lowest latency. PCIe switching remains foundational in standard compute architectures connecting CPUs to peripherals, and increasingly in AI infrastructure to connect CPUs to XPUs. In parallel with next generation protocols like UALink, PCIe is also adopted for XPU to XPU connectivity, particularly in AI inference systems and small to medium-sized clusters. CXL is rapidly becoming essential for memory disaggregation in modern data centers.

We have been investing in CXL for several years, and Xconn switching portfolio, combined with Marvell CXL memory expanders, create the industry's most comprehensive CXL platform. Xconn was already engaged with more than 20 customers prior to the acquisition. As part of Marvell, Xconn now benefits from our global sales and marketing reach and strong presence in the data center. As a result, we expect to drive strong growth in both the PCIe and CXL switch markets over the next several years. Turning now to our custom business. This remains one of the most compelling growth drivers for Marvell. In just a few years, we have scaled from zero revenue to $1.5 billion in fiscal 2026. As you may recall, the first meaningful ramp began in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Fiscal 2026 marked the first full year of production for those programs. As a result, we doubled our customer revenue year-over-year. We expect customer revenue to grow more than 20% year-over-year in fiscal 2027, higher than our prior view. We continue to see growth from our lead XPU program this year, including a transition to its next generation. As I noted last quarter, we have purchase orders covering the entirety of this fiscal year's forecast for this next generation program and are now ramping production. We are expecting growth to continue in fiscal 2028 from this program. We are also deeply engaged on the follow-on generation of this XPU. Several XPU attach programs are ramping in fiscal 2027, including our initial CXL and NIC products.

CXL demand is accelerating, partly driven by tight memory supply. Our custom CXL expanders enable customers to reuse prior generation DRAM with new XPUs, GPUs, and CPUs, while also supporting near memory compute operations. A recent white paper from a leading hyperscaler on next-generation LLM inference architectures highlighted near memory processing as a key opportunity to improve model performance. They cited Marvell's Structera A processor as an example of a CXL-enabled solution that improves programmability and simplifies system integration. This all provides a great setup for fiscal 2028, where we continue to expect custom revenue to at least double year-over-year from three primary drivers. First, continued growth from our existing custom programs. Second, multiple XPU attach programs reaching high volume, particularly in custom NIC and CXL applications.

As I mentioned last quarter, we have line of sight to revenue exceeding $2 billion by fiscal 2029 from just these two use cases, and we expect to make significant progress towards that outlook through fiscal 2028. Third, our new Tier 1 XPU program ramping into high volume production. This program has continued to progress very well through development, and we have firm volume requirements for all of next year and are planning for high volume manufacturing. Beyond programs already won, we are encouraged by strong new design engagements with both existing and new customers. Custom compute is proliferating across the hyperscale ecosystem, with inference-optimized hardware becoming increasingly important. We are seeing an unprecedented level of activity across multiple new engagements as hyperscalers increase their cadence of custom chip development.

We are engaged in deep technical discussions on innovative new architectures and are seeing a massive opportunity on 2nm and below process technologies. Okay, turning to our communications and other end market. We delivered fourth quarter revenue of $567 million, up 2% sequentially and 26% year-over-year. For the first quarter, we expect low single digit sequential growth on a percentage basis and approximately 30% year-over-year. In summary, we concluded fiscal 2026 on a strong note, with revenue growing 42% year-over-year and Non-GAAP EPS increasing 81%, roughly twice the rate of revenue growth, demonstrating the strong operating leverage in our business model.

Fiscal 2026, we were very active on the M&A front, divesting our automotive Ethernet business for a double-digit revenue multiple and rapidly redeploying the proceeds into two highly strategic acquisitions. These position Marvell at the forefront of the large and incremental AI scale-up networking market. At the same time, we continue to execute our capital return program, returning $2.245 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends. Far in fiscal 2027, we are seeing strong bookings across our entire data center portfolio, with customers signaling robust demand not only for this year but for the next several years. We believe we are still in the early stages of a strong multiyear growth cycle for Marvell.

Our first quarter fiscal 2027 guidance represents 27% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, re-accelerating from 22% in the prior quarter. We expect year-over-year growth to accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027, with revenue exiting the fiscal year at over $3 billion in the fourth quarter. We have raised our fiscal 2027 forecast meaningfully, and in fact, the revenue growth rate we are projecting today for fiscal 2027 is roughly double the outlook we provided just a few months ago in September. This is an exciting moment for Marvell.

I want to take a moment to thank our global team for staying focused despite the external noise and delivering consistent execution, which has enabled record results and positioned us to capitalize on what we expect will be a massive AI opportunity ahead. I look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming quarters. I'll turn the call over to Willem for more detail on our recent results and outlook.

Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, everyone. Let me start by summarizing our full fiscal year 2026 results, which were very robust across the board. In fiscal 2026, Marvell delivered $8.195 billion in revenue, growing 42% year-over-year. This growth was primarily driven by AI demand in our data center end market, as well as the continuing recovery in our communications and other end market. For the full year, on a GAAP basis, our gross margin was 51%. Operating margin was 16.1% and earnings per diluted share was $3.07. On a Non-GAAP basis, our gross margin was 59.5%.

Operating margin was 35.3%, expanding by 640 basis points year-over-year, and earnings by per diluted share was $2.84, growing 81% year-over-year. We also significantly increased capital returns to our stockholders, returning $2.245 billion through share purchases and dividends in fiscal 2026, an increase of approximately $1.3 billion from the prior year. Moving on to our financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $2.219 billion, growing 22% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. Our data center end market was 74% of total revenue, with our communications and other end market contributing the remaining 26%. GAAP growth margin was 51.7%. Non-GAAP growth margin was 59%.

Moving on to operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses were $744 million, including stock-based compensation, amortization of acquired intangible assets, restructuring costs and acquisition-related costs. Non-GAAP operating expenses came in at $517 million in line with guidance. Our GAAP operating margin was 18.2%, while our Non-GAAP operating margin was 35.7%. For the fourth quarter, GAAP earnings per diluted share was $0.46. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $0.80 above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting year-over-year growth of 33%. Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. In the fourth quarter, cash flow from operations was $374 million. Our inventory at the end of the fourth quarter was $1.39 billion, growing $374 million from the prior quarter.

Our working capital has increased to support the significant revenue growth we are driving. During the quarter, we repurchased $200 million of our stock through our ongoing capital return program and returned $51 million to shareholders through cash dividends in the quarter. We expect to continue to return capital through repurchases and dividends. As of the end of the fourth quarter, our total debt was $4.47 billion, with a gross debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.38x and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.57x. Our debt ratios have continued to improve as we have driven an increase in our EBITDA. Turning to our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, we're forecasting revenue to be in the range of $2.4 billion ±5%.

We expect our GAAP gross margin to be between 51.4% and 52.4%. We expect our Non-GAAP gross margin to be between 58.25% and 59.25%. Looking forward, we anticipate that the overall level of revenue and product mix will remain key determinants of our gross margin in any given quarter. We project our GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $872 million. We anticipate our Non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $575 million in the first quarter. This is stepping up from the prior quarter due to the typical seasonality in payroll taxes and employee salary merit increases, as well as the addition of Celestial AI and Xconn. The two acquisitions in aggregate are expected to add approximately $75 million to our fiscal 2027 annual Non-GAAP operating expenses.

We expect our GAAP other income and expense, including interest on our debt, to be an expense of approximately $51 million. We expect our Non-GAAP other income and expense, including interest on our debt, to be an expense of approximately $48 million. We expect a Non-GAAP tax rate of 11%. We expect our basic weighted average shares outstanding to be 876 million and our diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be 883 million. We anticipate GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.26-$0.36. We expect Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.74-$0.84. As we look ahead to the rest of fiscal 2027, we will continue to invest in growing our business while driving operating leverage.

On a sequential basis, we expect Non-GAAP OpEx to remain flat in the second quarter and then grow in the low to mid-single digits on a percentage basis in each of the third and fourth quarters, well below the rate of revenue growth Matt provided in his remarks. We are seeing strong growth from our existing franchises in scale-out and scale-across AI, as well as custom, and we are investing to drive new revenue streams from the rapidly emerging AI scale-up market. We have entered a robust multiyear growth period and are looking forward to delivering strong earnings growth to our stockholders. With that, we are ready to start our Q&A session. Operator, please open the line and announce Q&A instructions. Thank you.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. In the interest of time, please restrict yourself to one question only. If you have additional questions, please rejoin the queue. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Your first question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please state your question.

Hi, guys. Thanks for asking a question. Matt, thanks for all the updates on the out year, and, well, fiscal year, both this and next. Beyond the magnitudes of the revenue growth, can you just talk about the profile of it? Is the customer base broadening? People are always worried, especially in your custom business, about the concentration of it. I just wanted to get a little bit more color on the shape of the demand from a customer perspective.

Yeah. Thanks, Ross. Well, first of all, we're deeply engaged across the entire ecosystem, extremely strong position with the top four U.S. hyperscalers and then the next level. Each of them, we have a different, you know, concentration and revenue mix. Just to be super clear, if you look at this year and you look at us driving the company to $11 billion, then you unpack things like custom, it's not that big a % of the total. That's not what's driving our concentration. I mean, by design, because the top four U.S. hyperscalers are spending the bulk of the CapEx, that's where the dollars are gonna go. We're quite diversified across each of them. Some of them we sell, you know, a different mix, obviously, of product to.

In the case of all four, within our portfolio, which I just went through, you know, the laundry list of all the different types of products that we provide, we're highly diversified within each of these customers. Yes, custom is something that gets a lot of attention, but if you just look at the numbers I gave you and the context I set, it's a piece of the equation, but not all of it. Over time, even on the custom business, as you look out through fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029, remember, we've got, you know, 20+ design wins or products now, sockets that are either in production or going into production that's gonna layer in across all those companies as well. The diversification is only gonna get better over time.

We're very unique in sort of the breadth, I think, of the products that we offer and the product lines we have to really serve end-to-end, the needs of all of our key hyperscalers. The last two M&As we just did really round that out nicely in terms of adding PCIe, beefing up the UAL, and then also adding, you know, key silicon photonics capabilities.

Your next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Please state your question.

Good afternoon, guys, and congratulations on the strong results and execution. Matt, you know, on your custom XPU and XPU attached sub-segment, you know, OpenAI recently inked a partnership with your lead XPU customer to consume, I think something like 2 gigawatts worth of your lead customers next-gen and next-gen XPU. It feels like the overall demand for AI compute continues to accelerate. On top of that, like you said, you're ramping 15 XPU-20 XPU attached custom programs this year and next year. Within your better outlook for custom this year and with you already starting to ramp your lead customers next-gen XPU program, do you still anticipate a stronger second half step up of this XPU program, or is it more of a linear ramp through the year now?

I think you previously thought that you would exit this year with custom driving about a $2 billion sort of annualized growth rate. What does that exit runway look like today?

Yeah. Thanks, Harlan. I think the first part of your question is absolutely seeing strong validation in the market for the AI compute spend and the fact that, you know, a significant portion of that continues to go to companies that are building their own XPUs. That's a positive trend. We certainly see it. You're right, even where we don't necessarily have the XPU, where we have XPU attached, all the XPU attached is going with XPUs that in customers where we're not even participating. We participate across every one of those large companies and more on XPU attached.

That's a very positive trend for us that's driving our positive outlook for sure, you know, through this year, which we said custom was gonna grow faster than we thought, but more meaningfully into fiscal 2028 and 2029. Then from a linearity perspective, under the hood, we kind of give you a view of what the sequentials would look like throughout the year. Yes, custom, we have said was gonna be a stronger second half due to a program transition. That's still the case. That the type of exit rate you're talking about is certainly still intact and probably has an upward bias to it. If you look at the exit rate we're talking about for the whole company now, we're looking at north of $3 billion.

Within that, you know, custom continues to have some real upside to it. But that's gonna, you know, improve meaningfully, and the revenue growth is gonna continue into fiscal 2028, which is basically those programs from the second half now having a full year, so that's gonna provide some nice growth.

Content increase, layering in the XPU attach, layering in our new program with a new tier one hyperscaler, which is in its early stages, just even the rough plug we have for them is significantly lower than actually the wafers that we're planning on starting and the material and the production plan we have with our manufacturing supply chain. I think it's a very reasonable setup for next year with a lot of upward bias, depending on if these trends continue.

Your next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. I guess my first question is on the optics, the electro-optics business. I know, Matt, you've talked about in the past that your ability to kinda outgrow the pace of what we're seeing in CapEx spend. I guess my question is, you know, we've seen some massive upward revisions in CapEx. I think most people look at that and say, "Hey, we're looking at like 60%+ growth this year." Do you think you can grow at that level? How do you think about the durability of that growth as we move into fiscal 2027 or fiscal 2028, sorry. Thank you.

Yeah. Aaron, your observation is absolutely correct, and that's why, you know, even as we look at the upward momentum we see in the business for this year, a big part of that change is in that electro-optics portfolio. You know, we had been calling it kind of closer to CapEx, you know, as we were, as we were modeling what we thought we could do this year, you know, back in the September call and then even in my December call. But now it's clearly, you know, growing not more like accelerator growth and more like this sort of accelerated CapEx growth. Yeah, it's growing like 50%+ this year now. That momentum is gonna continue, okay, into fiscal 2028. A couple things are happening there.

The, the first is that as new XPU, GPU, et cetera, generations are released, we are seeing some increased concentration on the attach rate of optics, so that's a positive. You get more 1.6T, which has, you know, just by because of its performance, commands higher ASP, so that's gonna roll in. Then we have, we just have some pretty new exciting programs happening in that area. That business has been growing at like 50% a year-ish. You can give it + or -. I can get the exact data. It's been at that rate for some time since we acquired Inphi and the data center stuff really took off. We see that continuing not only through fiscal 2028, but, you know, that momentum should continue beyond that.

Maybe it's not the exact same magnitude, but it's significant. We have a real head of steam on the electro-optics business at Marvell.

Your next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Matt, you know, I think, you know, you feel very confident about the trajectory. I'm just kinda curious, one, can you just help us with 2026? 'Cause, I mean, you give us, you know, the big broad swaths, but I mean, is that custom business growing 30% this year? I just wanna figure out the base that you're gonna double. Can you talk about that second major XPU customer? I mean, to kind of give this type of guidance, like what kind of confidence do you have in the timing of that program?

Sure. Yeah. I think you're talking about, just to be clear, calendar 2026, fiscal 2027 on custom, kind of what numbers are we talking? Is that the first question?

Just your confidence level on that second major XPU customer and timing as we try to layer that in to get to that double?

Yeah, great. By the way, don't feel bad. I've been in this job for 10 years, I still have to translate every day between my fiscal year and my calendar year, don't feel bad. For fiscal 2027, yeah, we had been indicating, you know, after the double from last year, it would grow 20% this year. We're just saying that's north of that, I can't give you the exact number now, but it's biased upwards. It's just... Just take what I read before. Was that 20? You know, you can make an estimate, but higher, but not significant enough where I would, like, give you a new number. Just say it's biased higher. In the ballpark, but higher.

Next year obviously gets a little bigger than we thought. The reason we're confident is, you know, we have line of sight in terms of... First of all, we have history, right? We've built these large scale custom programs before. We've done these ramps before. We have a good sense of, you know, when the product is gonna go through its key milestones through NPI. We have had very detailed discussions and alignment around the manufacturing plan, and we've aligned up a corridor for fiscal 2028 for production on this that would be a lot higher than what I'm indicating to you. I think we're budgeting at the moment for, you know, is there a delay? Does it take longer, you know, et cetera.

Plus, I think at the moment, it seems like a lot of folks aren't really believing it's maybe gonna do anything. I think our plug is very, very reasonable for next year, Blayne, in terms of what's there, and I think it would buy us quite a bit higher if we could just achieve what we're planning on reserving in terms of capacity. More to come there, I think, you know, we try to call the ball as best we can, and in general, we've done a pretty good job over the years of trying to size and judge things in advance, and then usually we're pretty good, and then they buy us upwards. We'll see where it lands.

I think it's not a big stretch for this custom business to double next year.

Your next question comes from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. Matt, nice to see the beat and raise. Thanks for taking the question. You know, I wanted to ask the question about what got better in a different way. I mean, if you could just unpack since December, the $2 billion, especially, you know, how fiscal 2028 got $2 billion better since December. If we can unpack that and what exactly got better and then potentially, you know, I'm gonna be a little greedy, you know, what can carry into the next year as well, you know, calendar 2028, of those signs?

Thanks, Ben, and great to hear from you. A long time. I think, one is you Just kinda look at it as progression. I mean, it's the first point I'd make is, you know, we try to give a view for investors to be helpful because there's a lot of concern and angst back at the end of last year. In September, we talked about %9.4-ish billion, you know, for this year. You know, that's now... In December, we said that looks more like $10 billion, and now I'm saying it's more like $11 billion. Some of that is just the progression in terms of time and getting better visibility and more concrete. That just ripples into I'll use calendar for a second. Calendar 2027.

On top of that, I mean, one, we've now got very firm, you know, requirements and understand the profile, in particular the interconnect business. That is, I think we had called it very conservatively, to be frank. You know, I think even a few analysts last quarter kinda dinged us saying, "Well, you're plugging your interconnect business at CapEx, but it really looks more like it should be tied to GPU, XPU." That's really the case. I think we're seeing that now in terms of the forecast. That's come up quite a bit, which then again, the upward revisions we're seeing for this year then ripple into next year.

I'd just say this is all underwritten, Ben, by extremely strong bookings and backlog layering in, and then the detailed conversations with our customers around supply planning. It's just given us a much more concrete view. By the way, the other reason I think it's important and why we felt it was important to continue to update on this metric is that we set targets back in April 2024 for calendar 2028. We did that around some assumptions around data center market share of 20%. Those numbers looked enormous at the time we talked about it. I think you guys were there. You know, we were doing low billions a quarter per, you know, in revenue at that time. You know.

I think we had guided $11 billion or $12 billion, we put out this number that was like $15 billion in data center revenue in four years, and I think everyone thought we were nuts. At our June AI investor event, we said the TAM went up, so that data center revenue bogey kinda moved up to, like, if you just did the math, moved up to more like $18 billion and change. Now you kinda look at it and you see where we're landing in calendar 2026 and now where we're sitting here in 2027, I mean, it's, we're very much on track actually to those targets that we had set, Ben.

In a way, yes, it's some upward revisions and that's part of it is just because we have more data, but it actually is also validating, I think the plan we set actually four years ago about what we thought we could go off and do, which were very lofty ambitions, and we're not there yet, and we have to go execute like crazy, me and the whole team. We're very encouraged by what we're seeing, and the proof is in the pudding that we're getting in terms of the backlog forecasts and alignment with our entire supply chain to be ready to go make that happen both this year, next year, and in calendar 2028.

Your next question comes from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I think in the preamble, Matt, you talked about AEC and retimers more than doubling in the fiscal year. Could you maybe give us some perspective on the base there? Then you've been really helpful in the next few years kind of giving the contributing factors of what is a pretty impressive growth profile. Maybe talk a little bit about how much that can contribute in this broader overview? Thank you.

Hey, Tom. This is still a merging area for us. You know, we're say- it's, you know, doubling, over doubling this year, but it's probably in the $200 million range is what I would say. I mean, we actually, I think based on some of the things we're looking at, you know, maybe that goes higher, but that just gives you a sense of the magnitude. It's gonna keep going from there. I mean, we've seen this in a lot of our emerging product areas when we get into them. Once they start doubling, they kinda keep doubling. You know, you know this market quite well.

There's quite a bit of room, I think for a bunch of people to participate. Yeah, we're very encouraged by what we see, based on the traction we have on our products, especially in product leadership. We leverage a lot of our DSP and PAM technology in this area. We inflected when both on the retimer side and AECs moved from NRZ to PAM, and that was our kind of conscious decision to do that. We're earlier in this cycle 'cause we're coming in in later generations than some of the existing sockets, but we intend to really invest here in a significant way and participate. Over the long term, you know, we see that as complemented. You know, there's a place in the market for this, and we're gonna participate.

Obviously we made the bet when you go back to even the Inphi acquisition five years ago on optics and pluggable optics in particular, and then now with Celestial also on CPO on the scale-up side. There's a period of time we're gonna participate. I think it's gonna be great, and the business is gonna do well, and it leverages what we have. I think it's gonna be just part of our goal to be the end-to-end provider for our customers of all of these types of solutions, from electrical to optical to silicon photonics, various reaches, various distances, various form factors. That's what our customers are looking for, okay?

They wanna have an interconnect partner that can be the one-stop shop and do it all and have high amounts of leverage on the IT so they can trust it because we do it ourselves. Also on the firmware and the software and the system implementations, they also wanna make sure that they have reusability. It's been a virtuous cycle here. Just the scale-up part relative to the scale out is smaller, but growing rapidly. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Please state your question.

Thanks for taking my question. Matt, I just wanted to first clarify what your XPU attach was last year and what contribution you expect in 2027 and 2028. Kind of my more strategic question is, when we look at the pattern of your first large XPU program, right, you had a very strong start followed by competition from another supplier. How would you handicap kind of your exclusivity at the large new XPU customer you plan to start at next year? Thank you.

Yeah. Hey, thanks, Vivek. Maybe I'll answer the second one first. Yeah, I think you're asking specifically about our newer program that would ramp next year, and we feel very good about our position. These are, you know, very deep engagements we have with our customers. We're two hands on the steering wheel on this. This is multi-generational in nature. Given the rate of innovation and the pace with the technology is moving at, it's really in everybody's best interest to plan not just the, you know, one generation out, but even farther. We've really been able to do that, I think, across the board with our customers. We feel really good about our position there and the sustainability of that.

It still needs to ramp, obviously, but certainly the CapEx envelope is out there to really consume a lot of product, and we're very encouraged by what we see from a roadmap perspective. We're investing heavily as a company to be there across the board on all of the key attributes that these big XPU customers care about. I think more to come on that as well as future opportunities on XPU for the company. We feel very good about our position the next few years in terms of line of sight to hitting the revenue targets that we talked about over the last couple of years, and then growing beyond that. Oh, yeah, I'm sorry. On the XPU. Excuse me.

On the XPU attach, you know, I can give the exact numbers, but just maybe, you know, big round numbers. Maybe we'll first start with the line of sight just on the NIC and CXL I gave you, which was, you know, kinda $2 billion out in 2028, and then you layer more on that. And by the way, just, you know, we had sized for everybody on the call, the XPU attached TAM in the future at about $15 billion in calendar 2028. We didn't break it out exactly, but we had a total market share goal of about 20% in that timeframe. Let's just call that $3 billion. You know, we're driving in that area. Let's take a step back now. You know, XPU attached probably in the $200 million ballpark.

you know, let's say, like, this last year, you know, doubling this year, you know, maybe over doubling again the year after. I think, I think by next year, you know, this thing's probably, you know, a billion-dollar type business. We'll see how it all shakes out. It's all gonna happen under the hood of our custom business with that. Just to give you a sense, it's on a massive trajectory upward, and it's in that category of kind of double plus each year.

Your next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Please state your question.

Yes, thank you, and congrats on the record quarter. Matt, I was hoping you could give us a bit of an update on the mix of the Optoelectronics business. You talked about 1.6T already shipping, but you know, my understanding is that 800 Gig is definitely gonna be the bigger volumes this year. Any sense for what the mix is gonna look like for fiscal 2027 between 1.6T and I guess 800 Gig and even some 400 Gig?

Yeah. Well, I think you got it right, first of all. We had been saying this for a while that 800 Gig was gonna be sort of stronger for longer, and I think that was our mantra even last year, and that's still the case for sure. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, you know, we had significant shipments actually of 1.6T at the end of last year, and it's gonna ramp, you know, again, pretty hard this year. 800 Gig will still be the majority. I think it's gonna take probably through... I mean, even next year, 800 Gig is still gonna be strong. I can't give you the exact breakout at the moment, Tore.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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