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Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company. Focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves, the company primarily operates in the Permian Basin in West Texas, expanding into the top oil producer focused exclusively on the Permian. Diamondback has grown through strategic acquisitions, including the recent $26 billion merger with Endeavor Energy Resources, making it one of the largest producers in the country. Diamondback continues to play a significant role in meeting the nation’s energy needs.

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Q3 2024

Diamondback Energy (FANG): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Diamondback Energy

diamondback energy

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Diamondback Energy Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to Adam Wallace, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Julia. Good morning, and welcome to Diamondback Energy's Q3 2024 conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation and letter to stockholders, which can be found on Diamondback's website. Representing Diamondback today are Travis Stice, Chairman and CEO Case Van Toth, President and CFO and Danny Weston, COO. During this conference call, the participants may make certain forward looking statements relating to the company's financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and businesses.

We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in these forward looking statements due to a variety of factors. Information concerning these factors can be found in the company's filings with the SEC. In addition, we will make reference to certain non GAAP measures. The reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon. I'll now turn the call over to Travis Stice.

Thank you, Adam. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining our call this morning. I hope you've had a chance to review both the shareholder letter that went out last night as well as the investor deck. We'll be covering a lot of that material in today's question session. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann of Truist. Your line is now open.

Good morning, guys. Nice update last night, Travis. Guys, I'll save all my AI and data center questions this morning for your year end call. And I'll jump into my first question this morning on capital efficiency, which again, I think by my calculation, you all continue to have better than the other E and P. And so specifically, could you all, in case for you or Travis, maybe speak to what you all believe could be your realistic free cash flow per barrel next year or actually looking at just looking at what your breakeven would be assuming cost operations and well results continue to trend as they've been year to date?

Yes. Neal, we've really focused on free cash flow generation over CapEx spends in recent years, and I expect that trend to continue. I think with the Andeavor assets under the hood, that only improves our free cash flow margin. Reinvestment rate goes lower. Our corporate breakeven, we highlighted went down by $2 or $3 a barrel.

And I think in a world of a tenuous macro, the lowest breakeven and the longest duration of inventory is going to pay dividends. There's 2 things we really look at, free cash flow margin, which is the output of the reinvestment rate, but also how much CapEx are we spending per barrel of oil produced. And we like to say that we have the highest amount of barrels produced per dollar of CapEx in the business and expect that trend to continue. So a lot of time a lot of work has been done here integrating 2 companies very, very quickly. I'm ecstatic about the progress that's been made.

We've already learned some things from the Endeavor side and vice versa. And I think that's all going to accrue to the benefit of our shareholders through more free cash flow over a longer period of time.

put a number on where you see breakeven going at some point next year?

Yes. I mean, I think we laid it out on Slide 9. The post dividend breakeven has gone from $40 a barrel to $37 a barrel by our math. I think we've always tried to say that we'd like our base dividend to breakeven at $40 a barrel. So either our breakeven has gone down or we have more implied capacity to look at the base dividend, which we expect to do early in 2025.

Outstanding. Then my second question on the TRP asset trade specifically, how you all thought about valuation on each side. I'm just wondering on the Delaware PDP side, was that based largely just on reserve value of the assets? And then looking at the Midland side, is that based on a per location? Or maybe help me what else I'm missing you're all thinking about that swap?

Yes. So I'll give you a high level. The operated acreage in the Permian is very, very valuable. And since we did the Endeavor deal, we've been pretty vocal that we're not a seller of the Delaware Basin. I think this trade was pretty unique in that TRP gets to move into the Delaware Basin and test some things in secondary zones.

But Diamondback gets 18 DUCs in the Midland Basin, a little more current production and 55 locations that compete for capital right away. So we're basically moving 3rd and 4th quartile inventory into 1st and second quartile inventory, all while getting the benefit of capital efficiency from 18 DUCs added to the program and assets in our backyard. So we're looking at other options for other assets like this TRP trade. TRP was the first to move here and we were excited to get a trade done with them because those are pretty hard to do.

valuation perspective, I'd say the high level PDP values were pretty similar. I would say we have a lower decline rate that we're selling. We're getting more current production at a higher decline rate, but we're also paying for DUCs and these 55 top quartile locations, which are worth a lot these days in the Midland Basin.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan Securities LLC. Your line is now open.

Good morning, team. Travis, you have from a

Diamondback perspective, it feels like the

company has your hands in terms of several perspective, it feels like the company has your hands in terms of several cookie jars in terms of your equity investments. And I was wondering if you could help us frame kind of the value creation potential or embedded maybe asset value that we may not be giving you credit for as we think about investments in the EPIC Crude Line, Deep Blue and obviously maybe I don't know if I like Neil, I can wait until you're in. I wanted to get your thoughts on this data center kind of opportunity with the surface acres because investors have noted how one of a company who's developing a data center, Reeves County, has a pretty punchy evaluation in the equity market.

Sure. Lots of questions there, Arun, but thanks for your time this morning. Listen, on this whole data center, we've been listening to our shareholders to try to figure out a way to respond to their questions about can we create more value from our gas stream. And when you look at what we have as a total company, we've got abundant natural gas, we've got abundant surface acreage over 65,000 acres on a pro form a basis. And there's a need for greater electricity.

So rather than continuing to get low margins on our gas and full boat on electricity, we're trying to figure out a way to be creative on ways to turn some of that natural gas into more value for our shareholders. The EPIC pipeline was a move that allowed us to increase our ownership almost to a full third, trying to recognize that there's ultimately going to be a need out of the Permian Basin for increased crude capacity. And so, while it's probably not a long term investment, we think like a lot of our other equity investment methods, we'll be able to turn that into a very nice return for our shareholders. And in Deep Blue, we just continue to evaluate the sustainability of the efficiency of that business model and recognize that there's some endeavor assets that could potentially fit into that as well as we continue to unpack value creation from the pro form a companies.

Great. My follow-up is I just wanted to maybe understand on the efficiency gain side of the equation. In your prepared remarks, you commented how you think you can kind of execute your 2025 program with 18 rigs versus maybe a previous expectation of 22 to 24, maybe 4 frac fleets versus 5 previously. Understanding you're probably D and C ing the same amount of footage, What type of dollar per foot or cost gains you get from just running less horsepower and rig lines? Just trying to understand that dynamic.

Yes. I mean Arun, we set out when we announced the Endeavor deal thinking that 2025 would need between 22 24 rigs. There's been a lot of efficiency on both sides throughout the year and that 18 rig number is still going to accomplish the same amount of lateral footage as the higher rig count. I think from a rig perspective, it's all about controlling variable costs, right? We also put pipe in the ground.

We also use the raw materials, the same raw materials throughout the basin, but Diamondback is able to do that a lot faster. And so if a rig line is $70,000 $80,000 a day, being able to execute with 6 less rigs translates to less variable costs in the business. Similar story on the frac side, we think on the frac side, we kind of learned from the Endeavor side about the higher pump rate. We kind of increased our pump rate from 80 barrels a minute up to kind of 90 to 100. That allows us to 1 complete wells faster.

There could be some benefits to the reservoir that we're studying very, very closely. But overall, that also reduces the variable costs needed to run frackers, which are much more expensive than a rig on a day to day basis. So I think there will be periods of time where we need to run 5 simulfrac crews next year. High level, we can see we see the simulfrac crews completing a little over 100 wells per year per crew. And it's just amazing the efficiencies that both sides of the ledger have squeezed out of the business here in a year where we keep saying, oh, they're close to the asymptotic curve of efficiency.

Well, they blew that out of the water this year. So kudos to the teams and the basin experts executing on our business.

Rui, just to add to that, I think from a high level perspective, the message that we really tried to emphasize was that all of the things that Kees just outlined really described delivery of synergies not only ahead of time, which we had originally contemplated through the year of 2025, we're effectively got all of the synergies delivered now in the Q4 of 2024. And it's so it's faster and it's lower. We put a note in there that we're on middle of basin wells, we're now at $600 a foot. And I think these guys got some momentum behind them that we're going to continue to see an improvement in that number. So high level, really proud of the organizations that they've checked their egos and looked at the right way to do things from both perspectives.

And what we're seeing early on is some significant synergy deliveries. And I just want to I know you've already seen these, but I want you to I want to just mention it that we've put our just like we've done in the past, we've put our synergy scorecard in our investor deck with some details behind it. So if you'll just look at Slide 67, you'll see a lot of the details that Kaes was just highlighting and then also some of the high level comments that I made.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum of TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Thanks guys. Travis and Kaes, I just wanted to ask just in the context of some of the synergy scorecard being achieved perhaps a little bit earlier than anticipated and obviously announcing some of the incremental savings. You guys are sort of still kind of standing by that 4.1 to 4.4 budget for next year to kind of keep this 475,000 barrels a day flat. Are we at the point now, I guess, what sort of activity does that envision? And just given some of the incremental cost savings that we're seeing, are we trending now to be all the way at the lower end?

Or is there kind of a cushion built in there for some flexibility going into 2026?

Yes. Good question, David. We always like a little flexibility. I think given the macro environment, as Travis said in his letter, there's some things we're thinking about for next year. Again, always thinking about free cash flow generation overspending CapEx dollars.

But I think we're certainly near the lower end of that original range, 4.1 to 4.4 to get to 480,000 barrels of oil a day next year. That includes the 5,000 barrels a day that Viper guided to in our Tumbleweed acquisition. I think generally if you see well costs down $25 a lateral foot, we're completing about $5,000,000 lateral feet a year. That's $125,000,000 So that's certainly going to be taken out of the budget. I do think there's still some of the ancillary spend items that we're refining, combined infrastructure budget, midstream budget, environmental budget.

But in general, certainly moving towards the lower end of that range, we guided Q4 to $950,000,000 to $10,501,000,000 of CapEx. I wouldn't want to multiply the lower end of that number by 4 to get to your 2025 budget, but I'd certainly look at the midpoint or the high end to guide you to next year because I think a lot of things are heading in the right direction, not only well costs, but well performance, things like the TRP trade, all that's going to accrue to the benefit of the CapEx budget next year.

I appreciate all that color. It makes sense. Perhaps

of color just on some of the I know some others talked about some of the other assets midstream. You guys have highlighted obviously the royalty drop down. It seems like in the deck there's some expectation that some monetization is coming in 2025. Can you kind of give a little bit of color on where those processes stand now and when you'd be expecting to see some inflows from there?

Yes. So the big item is the drop down of mineral interest to Viper. That's actively ongoing. We've been pretty vocal that early 2025 is our goal there. I don't see anything that's taken us off that track.

2nd is the midstream discussion with our partners at Deep Blue. I think that's a little less important than the Viper dropdown at the moment. And then it's been interesting closing the deal. Mr. Stephens was notorious for having a lot owning a lot of assets throughout the country.

We got some small assets in the Bakken. We got a small piece of some offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico. So we're excited to continue to monetize some of those smaller assets. I don't think they're going to make a huge dent in the cash number, but they're all little things that you'd expect us to monetize at the right time. I think the other big item is about 15,000 acres in the Delaware Basin of both operated and non operated positions.

So we're going to look at that, try to trade and block up where we can, but we're not in the non op business given our cost structure and we'd likely monetize that into a very healthy market at some point.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research. Your line is now open.

Good morning. Your 2025 base plan is clear and you mentioned the ability to refine that plan based on the macro environment. Can you talk about how dialable that plan is before disefficiencies kick in?

Just generally, if other companies are seeing what we're seeing, this is not a strong macro environment. So I don't know why the discussion of growth or multiyear growth needs to be in the equation.

I think Diamondback has learned that our growth profile impacts the macro and we're very focused on the macro here where almost universally the Street is calling for oversupply in 2025. So I think we're building in flexibility to spend less should that come to fruition, but it's not hard to grow volumes in the Permian Basin with the assets that we have. So I think what you would expect is what looks easy on the outside is hard on the inside, but we make it happen.

But can it be gradual? Can it be like deferring some wells?

Or does it have to be dropping a rig line or dropping a frac spread? What's the can you tweak things around the edge, I guess?

Yes. I mean, we already do that, Bob. We went into the year running 15 rigs.

Andeavor was running 10. Our team was or 12. Our team was ahead of schedule. We dropped to 10 rigs mid year because we had drilled more wells than we expected in the 1st 6 months of the year. So dropping rigs, adding rigs, dropping accrues, swapping accrues, that's just what you expect us to do.

And Bob, this is Danny. We our supply chain set us such that we don't really have any really firm obligations with any kind of significant terms. So they've got flexibility built into our supply chain so that we can pivot to any kind of market conditions or signals that we need to. It won't be on a week by week basis, but if we see certainly a long term trend in the market, we'll pivot our activity levels to protect our free cash flow and focus on driving shareholder returns over any kind of growth or production output.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Yes. Good morning, team. I just love your perspective on the macro. I think, Travis, in your letter and in these comments, you've kind of shared a more cautious view for 2025. Is that a demand driven view, a supply driven view?

And then you've taken a different tact than some of the majors and other independents. It takes a little bit more for growth orientation into 2025 in the Permian. Why do you think your strategy is the right strategy?

Well, as Caius outlined, our strategy really is for flexibility. And when you look at the macro right now, it's kind of hard to look at a world that has 4000000 to 6000000 barrels a day of surplus capacity on the sidelines and try to think we can grow effectively into that. We've learned as an industry and at Diamondback the hard way that you really need to focus on shareholder returns and free cash flow generation in this industry. And there may be a call for growth at some point in the future and I expect our shareholders would look to us to respond to that call, but it's certainly nothing that we hear or see today. And as Danny alluded to, we've got the flexibility to go any direction we need to go.

to just stay conservative and let volume be the output of cash flow generation.

And most importantly, we're focused on per share cash flow and free cash flow, right? So if the macro is tenuous in 2025, while per share metrics are going to have to grow through a lower share count. And we've always been about per share metrics, both cash flow and free cash flow. We have a slide in our deck that shows that growth over time. So that's not going to stop.

I just think being cognizant of your impact to the global market is important and it's a lesson that Diamondback learned through 2020 and we hope the industry also learns that lesson.

Yes. Thanks, Cason. Thanks, Travis. That's the follow-up, which is just around share buybacks. At different points in the cycle, you've elected towards the variable or dividend oriented strategy versus the buyback, but it's notable that you're really leaning back into the share repurchase program.

So can you kind of talk about that evolution, maybe it's the reflection of your thoughts on valuation and maybe being countercyclical if you do think we're in a softer period in 2025, but just your thoughts on the best way to allocate capital and why you're leaning towards the buyback?

Yes. I mean, I think Travis would echo this comment, but capital allocation is our most important job. And we've had a flexible capital allocation philosophy since we started this lower growth, high free cash flow generation business. We've always been able to flex between a buyback and a variable dividend. I would say post Endeavor, we certainly have a business that's worth more combined than Diamondback stand alone per share.

And so that's increased kind of our tolerance for buying back shares at these levels. I mean, I think should things get improved from here, we buy back less, should things get significantly worse from here, we lean in and use more of our free cash flow to buy back shares. That's what you'd expect us to do. I think the only thing that's really going to be steady is base dividend and base dividend growth, but you should expect us to maintain that flexibility between buyback and variable despite our larger size.

And I think, Neal, the countercyclicality of share repurchases has proven to be the right strategy in a commodity based business. Our industry over the last 10 years probably has many instances where oil price was high, free cash flow was high and share repurchases were high. And then oil price cycles down and you end up either issuing shares at the bottom or other unanticipated results. So again, just like we were talking about on our the flexibility of our return program, we try to learn from the past and not repeat any mistakes and that's certainly foundational to our share repurchase program.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Betty Jiang of Barclays. Your line is now open. Good morning.

So I was wondering if you guys can talk a bit more about the opportunities with the surface acreage and the water, being a provider of water in the Permian. I mean, these are recurring revenue streams that's clearly getting a fairly high multiple in the market. So what does it take for you to capture these type of new revenue streams and how meaningful could it be?

Yes, Betty, I think there's a lot of land out here in West Texas, a lot of surface. We have about 65,000 acres in our portfolio. We also control a lot of molecules. So I think the mandate, as Travis mentioned earlier, from our investors is to stop selling your gas for 0 and pay in full boat for power. And so we're going to find ways to benefit Dynebec shareholders by finding a new local market for our gas, but also insulating part of our business from what we believe to be an increasing power price in Texas over the next 10 years.

So if we can cut off that cycle and benefit the NYMEX shareholders, we're going to do it. I think the message we kind of put out there is that West Texas has a lot of land, a lot of surface, has a lot of gas that's being sold for less than it should. It's got a lot of water production with that oil production that we have in the basin. And I think that results in a very cheap way to develop power. And the data center operators have not been focused on the Permian yet.

There are certainly some conversations that are happening. And we're kind of putting the flag out there that this is a very cheap way to execute their business model, while benefiting Diamondback shareholders. So more to come on that. We're getting started, but we put a little teaser in the presentation this quarter.

Yes. No, I appreciate that. Maybe my follow-up is just how you're thinking about funding these type of investments? Would it be a JV partner with an infrastructure provider infrastructure sponsor or yes, because these the gas power plants are pretty capital intensive to build?

Yes. Listen, I think you'd expect us to do similar things to what we've done in the past, right? Our first wave of equity method investments, which created a lot of value for our shareholders, was based on midstream and pipeline being out of the basin. And we think this can be a similar route. I think it's still early, but I think you'd expect us to lean on the experts as our partners.

I think we provide a lot of expertise in how to navigate the basin and navigate the rock and we'll let our partners on the power side handle their portion of the business.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCurdy of Pickering Energy Partners. Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning. First, congratulations on closing the deal. I know you've been working on that for a long time.

In your shareholder letter, you highlight the 2 big operational changes of using clear fluids and drilling and using Simon fracs for completions of all wells. I wondered if you could expand on that a little bit. Were those FAME practices that you're bringing to Endeavour acreage? And do you have a rough estimate of what percentage of your wells use those techniques in 2024?

Yes. Well, for the Diamondback side, all of the wells we drilled and completed in 2024 were using clear fluid. And as of the Q4, today, all the rigs that were running are using clear fluid drilling system. And yes, that's a definite bring over from the Diamondback side. Simulfrac, all of the wells we completed on a standalone basis besides the occasional spot crew in 2024, we're using Simulfrac.

And as of today, on a pro form a company, we're using all simulfrac operations, 4 rigs or 4 crews and 3 of those are electric.

Great. Thanks for the detail. That's all for me.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Freeman of Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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