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Expand Energy was founded in 1989 as Chesapeake Energy by Aubrey McClendon and Tom L. Ward, and it has since evolved into the largest independent natural gas producer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Oklahoma City and was renamed Expand Energy in October 2024 after Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy completed their merger. The company’s operations are concentrated in some of the most productive gas basins in North America, including the Appalachian Basin and the Haynesville Shale. It also maintains interests in the Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, and related Mid-Continent assets.

Q2 2026

Q1 2026

Q1 2025

Q4 2024

Expand Energy (EXE): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Expand Energy

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Good day and welcome to the Expand Energy twenty twenty five First Quarter Earnings Teleconference. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayers, Vice President, Investor Relations and Special Projects.

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss the Expand Energy's twenty twenty five first quarter financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the press release and updated presentation we posted to our website yesterday. During this morning's call, we'll be making forward looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note that there are also a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward looking statements, including factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings.

Please recognize that except as required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements. We may also refer to some non GAAP financial measures, which will help facilitate comparison across periods with peers. For any non GAAP measures, there's a reconciliation that can be found on our website. With me on the call today are Nick Del Aso, Mohit Singh, Josh Vietz and Dan Turco. Nick will give a brief overview of our results and then we'll open up the teleconference for Q and A.

So with that, thank you again and now turn the conference over to Nick.

Good morning. Thank you all for joining our call today. Recent market volatility has reinforced the importance of our strategy. The steps we took over the last year to build scale in the best gas assets, lower our costs through merger synergies, strengthen our capital structure and invest in our marketing business has successfully reduced the impact of market volatility in our company. Overcoming market volatility requires a resilient financial foundation, a deep market connected portfolio and low cost efficient operations, all hallmarks of our company and strategy.

In addition, we plan for an allocated capital around a mid cycle gas price of 3.5 to $4 While markets have been volatile, this pricing is still consistent with the forward strip and our view has not changed. While spot prices may be lower today, the macro fundamentals for natural gas remain very constructive, with growing LNG and data center demand setting up the market for a strong 2026 and steady rig count for Lower 48 activity implying a stable, not growing production. Against today's macro backdrop, we've continued to safely and efficiently execute our business. Our integration efforts remain on track, and we expect to achieve approximately $400,000,000 in synergies in 2025 and $500,000,000 by year end 2026. Since close, we've eliminated approximately $1,000,000,000 in gross debt, including approximately $440,000,000 in the first quarter.

In March, we joined the S and P five hundred Index, and we were recently upgraded to investment grade by Moody's, which means we have now achieved investment grade ratings by all of the agencies. These important milestones further demonstrate the strength of our company and the value of combining Chesapeake and Southwestern to create Xpand Energy. While both companies have achieved these results individually, I'm confident we greatly accelerated the timing through our combination. I am proud of the way our team has come together and embraced the role we play in answering the call to deliver affordable, reliable, lower carbon energy to markets in need. We also continue to benefit from the tailwind of our productive capacity strategy has provided our business.

Building productive capacity allowed us to efficiently increase volumes as demand grew. To put our strategy in context, over the first twelve months, volumes from our productive capacity wells will generate approximately $225,000,000 more in free cash flow compared to if we had elected to turn the wells in line last year. We expect to exit 2025 at approximately 7.2 Bcfe per day, turning in line substantially all productive capacity built in 2024. As we look towards 2026, we are well positioned to deliver returns for our shareholders. We expect to see a significant inflection in our free cash flow next year on top of the very strong year we're having in 2025, while growing our production to 7.5 Bcf a day.

This will allow us to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders. Sound capital allocation and prudent hedging will reduce risks and underpin our free cash flow. We look forward to continuing to update you on our progress. And operator, we'll now turn the call over for questions.

Certainly. And our first question for today comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Your question please.

Yes. Good morning, Nick, Owen and team. Appreciate all the comments here today. I'd love your updated thoughts around hedging. You guys did layer in a lot of those hedges for 2026.

Just talk about the way you're thinking about the plan going forward and why you elected to do that.

Morning, Neal. This is Mohit. I'll take that question. As you've seen us in the past, we will continue disciplined approach towards hedging, and we view that as just our way of managing the commodity price, the risk that's embedded in there. It allows us to utilize capitalize on the volatility that we see in the commodity prices and to increase the downside protection at attractive levels while retaining some of the upside participation.

One stat that I will mention to you is since the start of the year, we have added about seven forty Bcf of new hedges of various tenders, into Q1 twenty twenty seven with the average floor price of $3.75 and an average ceiling of $5.1 This has worked really well for us in the past and another testament to the strength of the program, last year, we recognized $1,600,000,000 of hedge gains in a soft price environment, so we know the program works. So going forward, it remains unchanged, and you'll continue to see us be disciplined about layering in more hedges as we see prices strengthen both in the near term and at the back end of the curve.

Yes. Thank you. And then Nick, follow-up is just on your perspective on the gas commodity. We have had a pretty dramatic move in the front. The backs have been pretty well bid still.

But in the front, do you think that supply or demand? And then maybe just talk about your perspective on balance of the year and how we move how we progress from here?

Yes, absolutely. The front has been volatile. It's been interesting to watch. We've seen supply be a bit robust through the first part of the year. And that's, I think, a function of the fact that we and some others had some deferred activity that we brought online into the cold winter that we had this year, creating some flush production.

The incremental demand allows all of that deferred activity to flow at full rate. And so I think you had a pretty strong production start to the year. In addition to that, it was very cold initially in January and then February and March were a bit more normal. April then has been pretty under historic demand levels. So I think you've seen a combination of supply be strong, demand be light.

I want to just remind you though that the way we think about it is the near term volatility is something that we plan to absorb within the way that we think about capital allocation. So we were spent a lot of time on the last call talking about capital allocation utilizing a two- to three year forward look of mid cycle prices, knowing that in the near term cycles will drive prices higher and lower than that mid cycle price. I think that's exactly what we've seen, and we feel really good about all of the fundamentals that drive our mid cycle price expectations and our price expectations broadly for 2025, '20 '20 '6, '20 '20 '7 that still support exactly the same way we've set up our business.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research. Your question please.

Thanks. Good morning everyone. Nick, wonder if I could follow-up on that. I mean just looking at the hedge range, I think you and I have talked in the past, and I'm sure others about the volatility, increased volatility of this market. And you've got like a 50% spread in these hedges just as a matter of record.

My question is navigating that, you've talked about lowering your breakeven for the portfolio. Where is that today? Where do you think it can get to during this period? And obviously, there's a lot goes into that, the synergies, the incremental delivery of those synergies, the marketing uplift in margins and so on. I'm just wondering if you could talk to us about the trajectory for your breakeven as you pay down debt.

Yes, it's a great question, Doug, and it's absolutely what we think about every day around here. Our breakevens today, as we begin to realize the synergies of the merger, have moved a little bit below $3 We think they're going to continue to drive lower, and we're focused every day on driving them lower through the remainder of realizing the synergies of the transaction as well as further efficiencies that we're going to drive through our business.

Just for clarity, Nick, is that the current spending level? Or is that maintenance capital spending level?

They're pretty close to the same number, right? I mean, our current spending level is where we expect to hold production. So they're the same thing.

Okay, great stuff. My follow-up is, it's a marketing question, I'm afraid. I know I tried this last quarter, but you recently had a trip out to Asia. I know you're looking at outlets all over the place, I guess, for your gas as the biggest gas producer now in The U. S.

But I'm curious if you're ready to offer any kind of insight as to what impact that can have on realized prices for you guys and to the extent you can share what that LNG potential supply might look like for Xpand going forward into U. S. LNG facilities?

Hey, good morning, Doug. This is Dan. I'll take that question. On LNG side, as you'd expect a company of our size now after the merger and scale, we've been in a lot of conversations about potentially entering the LNG business. And you referenced we've been out in Asia lately talking to numerous opportunities.

I think where we're currently situated, especially in the Haynesville, we're well positioned to grow that value chain. And we're in numerous conversations at the moment at various stages of the projects. And I'm not going to comment on anything that's commercially sensitive, but I think there is value there for us to either sell into those projects or even go further downstream to expand our value chain and look for more upside. The key in this is to have the right risk reward balance as we get into that and make sure that intrinsically we're in the money on what we're doing and try to capture that extrinsic upside after. But again, conversations in various stages at the moment that don't want to comment beyond that.

Good to hear you on the call, Dan. Thanks so much.

you. And our next question comes from the line of Zach Perrin from JPMorgan. Your question please.

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on the cash return program. In this first six month period of the new framework, you're going to have some free cash flow that falls into Tranche three. Can you just give some detail on how you're thinking about cash return from that bucket? Do you plan to be active buying back the stock?

Or will you lean more towards a variable dividend or maybe a combination of both?

Yes. Thanks, Zach. We're really pleased with our return framework. We think it's set up well for this year. We're just getting into the point at which we'll start to determine now how that tranche three will be applied.

And we'll be thinking about that over the coming weeks. I think Mohit may have some more to add here.

Yes, Zach. The things I will add is we view a strong balance sheet as a competitive advantage, and that's something that we will continue to focus on. We remain very pleased with the progress we have made so far in terms of paying down around $1,000,000,000 of gross debt, so that's very close to the target we had set for ourselves of $1,100,000,000 by end of twenty twenty five. The last thing I'll say to you is if you look at our historical track record, we have returned about $3,700,000,000 to our investors through a combination of base dividends, variable dividends and buybacks. So that should demonstrate our unwavering commitment to return cash back to the shareholders.

And as tranche three gets waterfall into at current prices, we you should expect us to be active in the market if the stock is trading in the right levels.

Thanks. And then my follow-up, I wanted to ask on Haynesville activity levels. In the slides, you show you're up to four frac crews there. That compares to the prior disclosure that it indicated you averaged three crews from the year or for the year. Can you talk about what's changed from an operational perspective?

bit of activity just given some higher pricing? Just curious what's changed in the operational plans there?

Yes. Really, Zach, I would say we're on track with the plan that we laid out back in February. We knew coming into the year carrying a higher level of DUCs than maybe we have historically that there'd be an opportunity to work down that inventory. And so really the expectation is across this quarter and maybe carry a month or so into Q3 that we'll run a fourth frac crew. And so that is going to average between 33.5% for the full year.

But again, that's really in line with how we saw the setup for the full year, where we saw the earlier part of the year really focused on the deferred till activation. And as we've worked through that backlog of inventory, we're really now turning our attention to the DUCs.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley. Your question please.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So you had a slide in the deck, I believe it's slide eight, just highlighting some of the trends you're seeing on well costs and the fact there's no material impact from tariffs.

I was wondering if could just talk through in a

bit more detail some of the different buckets there, the trends you're seeing and how the overall number of that 0% to 2% deflation compares versus your expectations going into this year.

Yes. Good morning. It's Josh. Yes, we've obviously seen some weakness coming into the year in terms of the OFS market and just in conjunction with the merger, creating more scale within the basins that we operate in. We've been successful at renegotiating some key contracts and that's given a little bit of a tailwind.

And of course, that's something we were well aware of when we issued guidance in February. So that all is embedded in the plan. So as we look forward and look out to the rest of the year and specifically around tariffs, there's clearly going to be a little bit of pressure that shows up associated with tariffs. And in our business, that is going to show up within our casing cost. Now I think a couple of things that are important to note.

One is roughly 80% of our casing is sourced domestically. So there is some level of insulation, but we know as imports cost rise that will likely kind of bleed into some of the domestic cost as well. But another important point is the simple fact that the majority of our casing is contracted through the third quarter. And so the exposure to those tariff related impacts are somewhat muted. And so really when you add all those things together, that has led us to a spot to where we would expect costs from '24 to '25 to be flat to slightly down.

We'll continue to work with our service providers. We have some really great relationships that we manage. So that's going to be a focus for us going forward. And of course, I think a spot that maybe creates a little bit of a tailwind for us as well is just really, I think, the outlook in the oilier basins, specifically within the Permian. If we see any material pullback in activity there, I think you could expect some additional deflation showing up across our business.

Got it. Okay. That's really helpful. And then I wanted to step back and Nick ask you a higher level strategy question. One of your peers recently announced a bolt on transaction in Appalachia.

And you highlighted the success of the Chesapeake Southwestern merger in some of your prepared remarks, and it's very evident in the operating results over the last few quarters as well. I'd imagine that given the quality of the portfolio that you have, it's a fairly high bar for further deals or further M and A. But I wanted to get your high level views on further industry consolidation, the role you see Xpland playing in that and what kind of key financial or strategic metrics you would look at in evaluating any potential opportunities going forward?

Yes. Hey, Devin. So you're right. We just completed a really big merger. We have our hands full realizing the remainder of the synergies there.

It's going great. But it takes a ton of work, and we're very, very focused on that. Going forward, we'll continue to pay attention to things that are out there. That's part of our job. We're going to remain grounded on our non negotiables when we think about additional deals.

And so there's probably things that will look attractive to us at some point in the future. I can't predict when and I can't predict exactly what, but I can predict that they will meet our non negotiables.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Your question, please.

Hey. Good morning, guys. Nick, I wanted to maybe touch on there's been some discussion from the President about the constitution pipeline as one of the larger producers in the Northeast Marcellus, you are positioned to be benefiting from that. So could you maybe talk a little bit about what do you think the chances are of that pipeline being built? What might the timeline or the commitment required look like?

And then maybe just generally, like, are you seeing other opportunities for expanded demand for gas, within the Appalachia?

Hi, Nitin. This is Dan. I'll take that question. As you said, it's good to see infrastructure being, discussed, the build out, whether it be pipelines, compression storage, power, these data centers. And more broadly, I'd add that it's good to see active discussions around permitting regular process in certain jurisdictions to try to streamline some of that.

And Appalachia has this clear need for takeaway and we're supportive of these discussions. And I know Williams is currently working hard at the specifics and we're going to take a hard look at it when we have more details. But as it stands, yes, still early days, but could be beneficial to our portfolio, but we'll look at the cost benefit of getting in that pipeline. And you mentioned the power demand, we've seen a lot of that. And again, we're in active discussions in Appalachia with many power demand producers and data centers as well, various stages.

Again, I won't get into any specific commercial discussions there, but in general, good to see the build out and the discussions happening and we're going look hard at these opportunities.

Great, great. Thanks for the color, Dan. And then my follow-up is just on the cadence of spending. First quarter came in just a little bit below your expectation, good to see that momentum. You talked about deflation here.

You've maintained your full year target. Maybe this one might be for Josh, but what is the cadence of the deferred tails, the DUCs? And then at what point do you expect to start seeing the spending on the productive capacity for 2026?

Yes. And so first of all, I mean, I think it was a really good quarter for us operationally. There was a ton of activity for us bringing on just under 90 wells in the quarter. I would also just note that from a drilling execution standpoint, we continue to perform at a really high level. We had record quarters from a footage per day perspective in both the Haynesville and in Northeast Appalachia, while drilling the longest lateral ever in our Southwest Appalachia at over 25,000 feet.

So really pleased with the way the operations are going. In the Q1 number, there's definitely an impact of seasonality operations within there. We tend to do a little bit less planned maintenance work. Our work overspend is always going to be a little bit less, which is impacting us both in terms of the production expense and capital side as well. So you'll start to see some of that expense and capital rolling into the second quarter.

And then as I mentioned earlier in prior question, we're also adding a fourth rack crew in Haynesville for a short period of time, which again is allowing us to start to draw down the DUC inventory that we built up last year. As we look forward into the second half of the year, that's really where you start to see the productive capacity CapEx show up. So we've talked about the incremental $300,000,000 there. And that will really be kicked off with the addition of an eighth rig in the July timeframe with expectations we'll be adding rigs in both Northeast Appalachia and Southwest Appalachia in kind of the fall timeframe. And so, that will get us on plan to exit the year at around 7.2 Bcf a day and spending roughly $3,000,000,000 a year in total for 2025.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of John Friedman from Raymond James. Your question please.

Thanks. Good morning. Just a question as the Haynesville gets ramped over the next few years, Is there any sort of additional either infrastructure to sort of non D and C spending that we should be aware of? Or does that sort of percentage of total capital in the Haynesville for non D and C stay at a similar sort of rate?

There's nothing planned right now for non D and C infrastructure in the Haynesville, John. We had an opportunity a couple of years ago to participate in the NG3 pipe. That capital has really all been spent now. The pipes come online at the end of this year. It's a great project.

We're really happy to be in that. There's nothing else that's in front of us today. But I think we loved that opportunity. And if something else like that came along that offered us great access to an attractive market, we could choose to

but there's nothing in front of us today that represents that.

Got it. And then just the follow-up for me on you've obviously done a really good job of making progress on the synergy capture. And just sort of looking at the slide that you all got in your deck in 5.6, is fair to say that it looks like everything that you all kind of needed to achieve on a run rate basis is kind of there with the company owned sand mine, the lower financing costs, the completions line, all that stuff that was in that additional synergy bucket is sort of basically in place. And now it's just a matter of just continuing that run rate to achieve the 500 by year end '26. Is there something else that I'm missing that's yet to be in place?

No, really John, I'd say we're on track. We feel really good about how the integration has gone. The teams are performing at a really high level. We've had another really great quarter of drilling in the Haynesville, which has just given us even more confidence on our ability to deliver the synergy there. So, yes, I would say at this point, we're on track for the $400,000,000 synergy delivery by year end 2025 and 500,000,000 by the end of next year.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Akhil Yakumide from Bank of America. Your question please.

Hey, good morning guys. I want to ask about the Haynesville guidance. Can you kind of give us a sense where Haynesville gas production is in real time, I. E, what is it today or perhaps at the March? If the message is that you're getting to two ninety five Bcf a day in 2Q and holding flat, I guess the nuance there is that the Haynesville's largest producer isn't growing very much for the rest of the year, and that's constructive for a second half twenty five balances.

But you also mentioned that the NG3 pipe is coming on at the end of the year, and you have capacity on it. So I'm kind of wondering how that gets filled.

Yes. Hey, Keely. So good question. That's exactly right that we're going to reach that level of production during the second quarter, and then it will flatten out for the rest of the year without any incremental growth until we get into 2026. That said, we are planning a redirect of volumes into the NG3 pipe.

We have a lot of production around the basin. A lot of it flows through IT today, intermittent transport today or interruptible transport today. And so we have a lot of flexibility in where we deliver our volumes. And we actually look forward to optimizing that flexibility through the work of Dan's team going forward to increase realized prices.

Got it. I appreciate that. Next, I'd like to go to operating expenses versus our estimate. That's where the beat was in this quarter. We were kind of expecting a certain cadence per unit cost that starts high and trends lower as you grow volumes.

But in 1Q, you're already at the low end. So kind of wondering how that trends from here.

Yes, this is Josh. We do expect spend to on an absolute basis to increase as we get into the later spring and summer months. And as I mentioned earlier, we just really peel back some of our planned maintenance activities and workover expenses in the first quarter. And so as production will pick up into the second quarter relative to Q1, it's just a simple fact that our absolute spend is moving up in concert with that. There's clearly some things that we see that are going well within our production expense, but it's still really early in the year.

And we want to kind of get another quarter under our belt. And but at this point, we feel pretty good about the guide that we've offered.

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Philip Youngworth from BMO. Your question, please.

to $4 mid cycle view, just with the lower crude price, I was wondering how associated gas plays into your outlook. And generally, what type of what level of oil production does that assume for the from the Lower 48? And if we undershoot that over the next couple of years, how would you think about upside in terms of incremental call in the Haynesville?

Associated gas is pretty complicated to model, as you guys know, because you have from the Permian, you have had growing volumes, but then you also have an increasing GOR. Our approach to modeling Permian gas over the last couple of years has been really simple. Model the pipeline capacity that's coming online and it will be filled. And that's held true. And I think that's still going to be true for a bit.

We're going to continue to see increasing GOR. We saw how quickly Matterhorn filled even though it didn't appear that there were a lot of ducks in the basin leading into that. And so, I think there's just the basin continues to prove that associated gas is available when pipeline capacity is available. That said, if we see a material pullback in rig count in the Permian, then that will change. And that could be a really interesting development for the dynamics of Lower 48 supply.

But we're just going have to watch that. There's a lot of predictions out there right now of cuts to rigs in the Permian. We've seen anything from 20 to 50, but we haven't seen a lot of specific plans just yet. So, we're going be watching that really closely.

Expand Energy (EXE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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