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The 300 companies on this year’s list brought in over $12.5 trillion in revenue for the latest 12 months, with the median revenue figure at $24 billion.

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Almost $20 trillion in revenue—and a record-breaking $1.87 trillion in profits. Introducing the 2025 Fortune 500, the definitive list of the biggest companies in America.

The 300 companies on this year’s list brought in over $12.6 trillion in revenue for the latest 12 months, with the median revenue figure at $22 billion.

The Fortune 500, in its 70th year in 2024, ranks the biggest U.S. companies by revenue.

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This year’s Fortune 500 marks the 67th running of the list.

One of the largest insurance brokers in the world, the firm offers brokerage and risk management services to various clients.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 66th running of the list.

F500 2020-429-Arthur J Gallagher

A Rolling Meadows, Ill.-based insurance brokerage, Arthur J. Gallagher has 33,300 employees.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 65th running of the list.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 64th running of the list.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 63rd running of the list.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 62nd running of the list.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 61st running of the list. Wal-Mart claims the top spot again. See who made the list.

Wal-Mart stayed on top as its sales crept closer to half-a-trillion dollars. Apple moved into the top five. And UnitedHealth Group continued its steady climb. 

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Arthur J. Gallagher &amp; Co. is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting firm. The company provides customized property and casualty insurance, risk management, and consulting services to a wide range of clients worldwide. Founded in 1927, the company operates in 130 countries and territories.

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Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Arthur J. Gallagher

arthur j. gallagher

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. Your lines will be open for questions following the presentation. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meanings of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and risk factor sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.

In addition, for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed on this call, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the investor relations section of the company's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, as well as members of the management team. Before I start, I'd like to acknowledge the damage caused by Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. Our thoughts are with all those impacted, including our own Gallagher colleagues. Our team of experts have been mobilized and are on the ground helping our clients and colleagues. Moving to our financial performance, we had a terrific and obviously very active third quarter. Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, delivered revenue growth of 20%. In fact, over the last 30 quarters, we've delivered double-digit top-line growth 26 times. This is now our 19th straight quarter of double-digit growth. Clearly, our relentless client-centric, team-driven, and welcoming culture is thriving.

Underlying that headline revenue growth, we posted 4.8% organic, grew adjusted EBITDA at 22%, and expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 26 basis points, demonstrating we are getting substantial benefits of scale and the value delivered by our strategy of constantly focusing on improving our productivity while delivering our high-quality services. EPS for our combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted GAAP EPS of $1.76 and adjusted EPS of $2.87. That would have been $0.22 higher had we levelized for the intra-quarter revenue seasonality related to AssuredPartners that we closed on August 18. Doug will unpack this timing aberration in his comments. The punchline is our business continues to shine, and the early days of the AssuredPartners folks coming together with the Gallagher team is off to a terrific start. Already, we're selling together. We're showing that we are better by being together.

Moving to the results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment, reported revenue growth was 22%. Organic growth was 4.5%. Relative to our September IR Day commentary, we did see a little pressure on contingents and a few large life insurance cases shifted out of the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin headline shows flat year-over-year at 33.5%. When we exclude merger and acquisition interest income, it shows underlying margin expansion of 60 basis points. Doug will give you a bridge from last year. That's terrific work by the team to stay vigilant in our relentless pursuit of being more productive every single day. Let me provide you with some highlights behind our brokerage segment organic. Within our retail operations, we delivered 5% organic overall within property and casualty, with U.S. up more than 7%. International flat, driven by less renewal premium increases and lower contingents.

Employee benefits posted around 1% organic, driven by lower-than-expected large life cases. Shifting to our wholesale and specialty businesses, in total, we delivered organic of 5%, with the U.S. outperforming our international businesses slightly. As for reinsurance, it's a relatively small quarter, and organic here was in the high single digits. While not in our organic growth numbers, AssuredPartners' third quarter organic was 5%. That really shows you that a terrific sales-driven culture is joining our team. We continue to deliver organic growth across retail, wholesale, and reinsurance. Let me provide some thoughts on the property and casualty insurance pricing environment. Overall, global insurance renewal premium changes remain in positive territory, and we continue to see more carrier competition across property classes, particularly shared and layered programs and cat-exposed risks, resulting in renewal premium decreases.

With that said, carriers continue to push for increases across most casualty classes, which are more than offsetting the property decreases. Let me provide a further breakdown on our third quarter global insurance renewal premium changes, which includes both rate and exposure by line of business. Property down 5%. Casualty lines up 6% overall, including general liability up 4%, commercial auto up 5%, and umbrella up 8%. U.S. casualty lines are up 8%, and that increase has been consistent over the past 12 quarters, suggesting domestic carriers are recognizing continued pressure. Package up 5%, D&O down 2%. We think perhaps close to bottoming out. Workers' Comp up a point, and personal lines up 6%. While property's down 5%, many lines are still seeing increases.

In fact, global renewal premium change excluding property remains around 4%, with good accounts getting some premium relief and accounts with poor loss experience seeing greater increases. Looking at differences in renewal premium changes by client size, we continue to see some bifurcation. For middle market and smaller clients generating less than $250,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up about 3%. For larger clients generating more than $250,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were down 1%. Many of the market trends we have been highlighting for the past three quarters persist today. As for the reinsurance market, a very small quarter for us. Looking towards January 1 renewals, the industry remains healthy. There's adequate capacity to meet expected demand. Property coverages continue to favor reinsurance buyers, while casualty reinsurance dynamics are more stable with continued caution for U.S. risks.

Moving to employee benefits, we continue to see solid demand for talent retention strategies given the resilient U.S. labor market. Further, managing rising health insurance costs is becoming increasingly important for our clients as they deal with continued medical cost inflation. We are engaging with employers to help them alleviate the pressure from rising medical and pharmaceutical costs. Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. While the U.S. government shutdown has halted economic data releases, our proprietary data, which has been an excellent indicator of the economy, continues to show solid client business activity. Third quarter revenue indications from audits, endorsements, and cancellations remain nicely positive. Interestingly, through the first three weeks of October, our revenue indications are showing even more positive endorsements and lower cancellations than in September. While we are watching our customers' business activity carefully, we are just not seeing signs of an economic downturn.

Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are very well positioned to grow. From our leading niche experts, vast proprietary data, award-winning analytics platform, extensive product offerings, outstanding service, and global resources, this puts us in an enviable spot competitively. As we sit today, we are seeing brokerage segment fourth quarter organic of around 5%, which would bring our full-year organic to more than 6%. Moving on to our risk management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Third quarter revenue growth was 8%, including organic of 6.7%. We saw strong new business revenue and excellent client retention in the third quarter and believe these favorable dynamics will continue through the end of the year. Accordingly, we expect about 7% organic growth in the fourth quarter. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA margin is 21.8%, a bit better than our September expectations.

Looking ahead, we see fourth quarter and full-year margins around 21%, and that would be another great year for Gallagher Bassett. Let me shift to mergers and acquisitions, starting with some comments on AssuredPartners. Since the mid-August close, dozens of Gallagher leaders and hundreds of others have been traveling to AP offices and hosting gatherings. We've been sharing our stories with thousands of our new colleagues and highlighting all the tools and expertise that is now at their fingertips. I, too, have attended many of these meetings and events. I have to tell you, the level of excitement all of us have witnessed during these visits is literally palpable. We have shared a view that we will be better together. One plus one will be greater than two, and there is immense value creation for our clients, carrier partners, and shareholders.

Equally important, they know they are now home, and they are getting the resources they have desperately needed for years. For those that are ready to join the amazing Gallagher culture, I welcome you. Outside of AP, we completed five new mergers representing around $40 million of estimated annualized revenue. This brings our year-to-date estimated annualized acquired revenue to more than $3.4 billion, or 30% of full-year 2024 revenue. That is fantastic. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome. Looking at our pipeline, we have about 35 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher. I'll conclude my prepared remarks with some comments about our bedrock Gallagher culture.

As I am meeting with colleagues, both new and old, across our global network, it's always impressive to me how quickly new employees and acquisition partners come together as part of the Gallagher family of professionals, how we embrace the Gallagher Way and enhance our offerings and services to clients. As tenet number 24 of the Gallagher Way reminds us, we must continue to build a professional company together as a team. I believe this spirit of teamwork and shared purpose is precisely what is driving our success today. That is the Gallagher Way. Okay, I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

Thanks, Pat. Hello, everyone. Today, let me first address the third quarter impact from rolling in revenues from AssuredPartners. Let's go to page seven of the CFO commentary document that we provide on our website.

Over the last 30 days, we finally got usable AP data down to the customer-level detail. That gave us the policy inception date data necessary to implement our 606 accounting and harmonize revenue accounting methods. First, it's important to note that the new detail did not change our annual view of revenue or EBITDA. Second, however, it did reveal that AP's business is much more seasonally skewed than we could previously estimate. Two tables here on page seven help unpack this. The top table shows you the interquarter seasonality. It's easy to see first and fourth quarters have considerable seasonality, which you should consider when building your models. What this table doesn't show is the intraquarter seasonality. We've added the lower table. What this shows, while we owned AP for half the quarter, only about 40% of the policy inception dates were between August 18th and September 30.

That produces an $80 million revenue difference to our September IR Day estimate, where we used a 50% assumption because we owned it for half of the third quarter. That causes a 22% shortfall to our indicated September IR Day estimate. You'll see that in the yellow column in that table. It does impact some of my other commentary, but I'll highlight those throughout my remarks. All right. With that said, let's go back to the earnings release, and let's go to page three. Brokerage segment organic growth of 4.5%. That's about $11 million of less revenues than our September IR Day thinking. Half of that relates to those lumpy live sales that didn't get closed. We've talked about that and how that can impact organic a little bit from time to time. That costs us about 30 basis points of growth. The other half or so relates to contingents.

While there is some geography with supplementals, we did have an unfavorable estimate change related to one of our international programs. That costs us about 20 basis points of growth relative to our expectations. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we see organic around 5%. A couple of items that influence our thinking when we make that estimate. First, as we discussed in our IR Day, we are in the midst of our annual update on 606 estimates. When all that settles, that could move that growth estimate a half a point either way. We know that's just accounting, but it can cause some noise. Second, always a little sensitive to the timing of those large live sales. If buyers believe rates may come down even more, they might push those into 2026.

That said, if we were to deliver fourth quarter organic around 5%, we would finish the year with organic above 6%. That would be a terrific year. Flipping to page five of the earnings release to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDA table. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.5%. That's flat year over year on the headline. As I do each quarter, let me walk you through a bridge from last year. First, if you pull out last year's 2023 third quarter earnings release, you'd see we reported back then adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.6%. Now, adjusting that using current FX rate, this quarter is about 10 basis points. FX adjusted EBITDA margin for third quarter 2023 is about 33.5%. From that starting point, the rolling impact of M&A used about 200 basis points, with more than two-thirds of that impact coming from the seasonality of AssuredPartners.

Interest income, including the cash we are holding for the AP closing through mid-August, added about 140 basis points of margin. Most important, organic growth of 4.5% gave us about 60 basis points of margin expansion this quarter. This bridge helps you quickly see we're continuing to deliver terrific underlying margin expansion. As for fourth quarter, we don't see anything that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We still see terrific opportunities. Sticking at page five, the risk management segment organic growth was 6.7%. That was in line with our expectations, and that resulted due to strong new business revenues and excellent retention. We expect favorable new business and retention again in the fourth quarter, so it's looking like another quarter of organic growth in the 6.5% to 7% range. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8% was better than our September IR day expectations.

Looking forward, we still see full-year margins closer to 21%. Let's turn now to page seven of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. Each of these adjusted lines came in close to the midpoint or just a bit better than our September IR day expectations. All right. Let's leave the earnings release and go back to the CFO commentary document. Starting on page three with our modeling helpers. Most of the third quarter 2023 actual numbers, which were given excluding AP, were close to what we provided back in September. Looking forward, we are including AssuredPartners in our fourth quarter figures for depreciation, amortization, and earn-out payable. Also, please always take a few minutes to look at the impact of FX as you refine your models.

Turning to page four and the corporate segment outlook for the fourth quarter 2025, not much change here from our IR day six weeks ago. Flipping now to page five to our tax credit carryforwards. Again, not much change from our IR day, but as a reminder, it's a nice cash flow sweetener to fund future M&A that doesn't show up in our P&L but rather via our cash flow statement. Turning to page six, the investment income table, we've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. These numbers assume one future 25 basis point rate cut in December. Shifting down to page six to the rollover revenue table, the third quarter 2025 column subtotal is around $137 million before divestitures. That's pretty close to our September estimate.

Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated 2025 and 2026 revenues for brokerage M&A closed through yesterday, excluding AssuredPartners. Just a reminder, you always need to make a pick for future M&A. Moving down the page, you'll see that we expect fourth quarter 2025 risk management segment rollover revenues of about $16 million. All right. Flipping next to page seven, I hit on the major takeaways up front in my comments, but heads up on a couple of items as you use this page to build your models. First, take a hard read through the footnotes. This table shows our midpoint estimates. It uses a placeholder assumption for growth and also does not include synergies. We still see annualized run-rate synergies of $160 million by the end of 2026 and $260 to $280 million by early 2028.

The second point, the non-cash items that we show here, mostly depreciation and earn-out payable, are also reflected in the brokerage segment fourth quarter estimates on page three. Please don't double count those. Moving to cash, capital management, and M&A funding. When I look at available cash on hand plus future free cash flows plus investment-grade borrowings, over the next couple of years, it's looking like we might have $10 billion to fund M&A before using any stock, still at multiples with a terrific arbitrage. Before we go to Q&A, a few soundbites on our nine-month combined brokerage and risk management adjusted results. Revenue up 17%. Net earnings up 27%. EBITDA up 25%. Our organic year-to-date at 6.6% and EBITDA margin over 36%. Those are stellar results, and I see us finishing 2025 strong, and 2026 is looking like another terrific year. Okay, back to you, Pat.

Operator, if we could go to questions, please.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, I want to start on AssuredPartners. When we're thinking about new business by AP, I'm assuming that that's in the M&A line, but then what about synergies? Does that fall on the M&A line, or is that something when they start coming online that will be included within organic revenue growth?

The revenue synergies that we get out from that goes into the AssuredPartners P&Ls will be given credit to them, not to us. If there is something that we would book, for instance, a broader base contingent commission or supplemental, that if that impacts our books, that would go into the legacy Gallagher organic growth. To a certain extent, if we pick up some more on the AssuredPartners book of business, that would understate organic revenues. Does that help?

Yeah, that does help. I think in the past, you guys have said that next year feels a lot like this year. You just said the full year is going to be, I think, just more than 6%. Based on how you guys are seeing everything today, is there more precise guidance just in terms of the organic outlook that you're looking at for 2026?

Yeah, we're in the middle of our budget and planning process, but I still think we feel comfortable that next year, 2026 could look a lot like 2025. We still believe that early indications that we're having terrific success in our reinsurance business. We're having terrific success in our P&C businesses, too. As a matter of fact, when you really pull back the organic growth in the P&C business, it's been pretty consistent over the last five to seven quarters when you strip out property. Basically, our business is still running very similar today as what we were seeing throughout the year. That's what makes us feel comfortable that next year could be a lot like this year.

My last one is on M&A. When you guys talk about the pipeline, I'm assuming that's now like a combined Gallagher and AssuredPartners pipeline.

How has, now that you guys have closed on the AssuredPartners acquisition, the M&A from their side of the house added to the pipeline, as well as just when you think about your bolt-on M&A over the course of the next year or two?

Just give us a couple of weeks on that. We just really got closed, and we're kind of getting around that. As I said, we've been doing a lot of visits. We're going to have most of their folks in the field come to the home office over the next month and a half or so. That pipeline has not been yet put into our pipeline report. They did have a good pipeline. Things were working along. Of course, we're going to bring them together with our M&A people. I don't have a real good handle on that yet.

We're hopeful that that business and those opportunities will roll right over to us, but I haven't seen that yet.

One thing qualitatively on that is that what's happened is, as I sit down and talk to some of the branch managers or agency presidents that have come over that have been merger partners and AssuredPartners, I think a lot of them are, frankly, kind of surprised that we'd be so interested in them. They're in smaller communities necessarily. Their books, they're not quite as large. I think it's opened up the eyes to those 30,000 agents or brokers out there that, of all sizes, we have an interest. If you want to sell, you want to take care of your customers, you want to get better together, our doors are open for that M&A. I think there's an awakening.

We want good producers that want to produce and good agency leaders that want to stay on and be a part of their business. I think that's going to lead to us getting more looks and more swings at the plate.

It'll also take a little while to re-coke, if that's the right word. People are naturally cautious. We're going down a discussion track with AssuredPartners. You've now gone a different direction with Gallagher. How are you feeling about that? Are you still wanting to put the recruiting press on me, or are you feeling a little bit hesitant? I think people want to naturally watch that. I'm very hopeful that when it starts to cook, it should cook well for us. That's what I'm hoping.

Our next question is from Andrew Klingerman with TD Securities. Please proceed.

I just actually want to build on Elise's questions. The first one on the organic growth. I recently spoke with two competitors in the small to middle market brokerage area, and both of them kind of said in this shallow pricing environment, 4% to 6% is a good organic run rate, that it's very doable and likely. How does that strike you? I mean, does that feel like the strike zone as opposed to in the past, you were looking more at upper single digit just given the pricing environment?

Yeah. I think if we start on January 1, remember, we thought that we would be somewhere between 6% and 8%, and that's where we're going to fold out. The difference on some of that is our reinsurance business, our international business. I think that you've got a good nose into what might be Main Street U.S. retail.

I think where we top up on that is because of our wholesale business that performs well, our programs. We've got that business, and then we've got our reinsurance business. Those are the things that make me feel being more on the upper end of that spectrum or that range than within that range.

Got it. Thanks for that. Going back to M&A. I get it's kind of too early to talk about AssuredPartners pipeline and so forth, but just in terms of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. appetite, if a deal were to present, a large deal were to come across your desks, or if a deal outside of the U.S. that were large to come across your desks, would that be something you could do at this stage, just given the sheer size of AssuredPartners?

Our next question is from Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed.

Good afternoon. I guess first of all, I appreciate the disclosure on page seven of your CFO commentary. Doug, I think you mentioned or just reiterated the $160 million of synergies. That's not in these estimates. You can confirm that. Can you talk about the geography of that? Is that going to be in the operating expense, or is that going to be revenue and operating expense? I'm not asking to pinpoint by quarter, just. Ballpark where you think those synergies, how those are going to show up when we get to the year-end 2026.

Yeah. I think by the time you get into 2026, it's easy for me to always say a third, a third, a third. We're going to get a third for revenue uplifts.

We're going to get a third because coming together, we'll have some efficiencies in our workforce. I think a third of that will come from our operating expenses. The more exciting number really comes when you get to that as you start to push $300 million of synergies out over the next year, really over the next year and a half after the end of 2026. I think you're going to see terrific opportunities for us to deploy our technologies, the AI that we're working at right now. Greg, you've been around the story a long time. We have spent 20 years transforming our business. We have capitalized on labor arbitrage. We've deployed technologies. It's just part of our DNA. You put that over our tracks, and you put that $3 billion over our proven places where we've been able to deliver efficiencies, productivity, and raise quality.

I think it's ripe for a tremendous, tremendous amount of better together, maybe even better than what we're saying right now.

I think the better together stuff too, Greg, dispatch is the whole revenue side of things. I think there's a lot more closeness in terms of what we're producing, and there's a lot more opportunity to trade together. They are clients of RPS, but not to the same extent nearly that our present platform does contribute to RPS. They've got a host of business. Although they're a spread middle market broker, they do have a ton of business in the UK. We've identified literally millions of dollars of business opportunities to trade with ourselves there. Just across the board, we've already produced $1 million of new accounts with them in six weeks that are accounts we both mutually had in our prospect system.

When we went out together with our tools, their connections, our connections, it made it easy for that buyer to join us. There's literally thousands of those opportunities. I think the trading better together is a real opportunity.

Thanks for that. In your answer, you mentioned that you're going to have the AP gets credit in their book for their revenue synergies. It seems like you're keeping two books for the purposes of getting through the earnout period. Am I to infer from your comment that you're going to be taking or trying to encourage the AP retail reps to use RPS as opposed to other sources? Is that going to help drive your wholesale organic? If something like that happens, does that go on to AP book, and we don't see that manifest itself in terms of organic results for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.? Does that make sense?

I'll let Doug comment on how we'll account for it. He's got that down. Let me tell you about the opportunity. As you know, probably about five or six years ago, we went through the arduous task of going out to our retailers and cutting back from probably 500 separate wholesalers being used across the entire platform in absolutely no coordinated way. We moved that across to four specific strategic relationships, one of which was RPS, our owned wholesaler, recognizing that we needed others besides just ourself. I call it arduous because it was trench warfare, and we got it done. By the way, we did that to benefit our clients and improved it over and over again. AP is just Gallagher 15 years ago. We are going to have to go through that process.

We are not mandating they use RPS, but we will start the process in the new year of saying, "Look, there's basically five." We will add one to that, and that will be it. We are going to just keep pushing and pushing and pushing. That, of course, does include what we would hope to be an outsized opportunity for RPS. Doug can talk about the accounting.

Yeah. Greg, in that example, if we move it from wholesaler XYZ to RPS, that would be considered organic growth in our legacy numbers. We are talking about another 10 months of this, right? That would be legacy Gallagher organic growth. If they come on to a base commission schedule where we were getting 16% commission and they were getting 14%, that extra 2% of that base commission would be credited to that AssuredPartners historical branch.

Does that keep us from having to consolidate these businesses for purposes of that solely? No. There's a self-adjusting mechanism because it's going to go to the producer. That extra compensation will go to the producer. For us to track the producer, whether they move from branch A to branch B, it's not going to produce any more difficulty. We are not keeping them separate from us. There is no earnout on AssuredPartners other than those that they bought that were still on an earnout. We will have. Their earnouts, but those will go away in another year and a half too. It's not going to put a burden, and we're not doing anything to keep. We're trying to put everybody on the same system and get everybody in the same playbook as fast as possible.

For the final sort of cleanup question, just back to market conditions, there's a lot of rhetoric in the marketplace about where we are in the pricing cycle. I noted your comments that you're seeing some continuing stability and especially your middle and small market exposures. Maybe you can. Pat, you've been around, I don't know what number cycle you're on at this point in time, but there's a number of them. I'm just curious how you think this is going to play out over the next two or three years because certainly it seems like large account properties are under a lot of pressure, and there's some other areas where there's pressure points.

Yeah. I'd be glad to talk about that. I've done this in the past, Greg, so it's consistent with my previous comments.

Surprising to me, a couple of years ago when I was in London, we'd just gotten done putting forward and selling 300% renewal increases on our public company D&O book. I was with the FI team in London, and they said, "Pat, this thing is going to soften fast." I'm like, "How can that wait? How can that happen?" D&O is going to start to drop down, and so is cyber. I go, "Guys, you got to be kidding me." That started about two and a half, three years ago and continues. At the same time, during that period, other lines were continuing to firm.

What I think we're seeing this time, which is different from the cycle in the late 1980s into the 1990s and different from the cycle in 2005, is that there's less of all lines down, all lines up, which is why we try to give it in our prepared comments. The property market clearly is in a good spot for clients. It's been a hard place for clients the last number of years. They're getting some relief. That's a positive thing. When you take a look at the casualty market, isn't it interesting that we're still seeing rate increases there as they look to the pale on that stuff and realize they've got to adjust to it? I do believe that you have cycles within the cycle, which is different than the past, and this is my fourth.

It's different than I've seen in the past, and I think kind of makes sense. I think. We're always one storm or one disaster away from a firming property market. Casualty takes a long time to sort of figure out. You don't know your cost of goods sold, and it bleeds in. Then you've got ancillary lines like package or what have you. The interesting thing to me is that this is also bifurcated in a different way than it was in the past. Our large accounts are demanding discounts, and they're getting bigger ones. Makes some sense. They wield more premium. Smaller accounts, which were in the last cycles down as well, not so strong. We'll see how this all shakes out, but I think the dominant theme here is it's going to be cyclical.

It is cyclical, but I think it will be by line and by results by line. Cycles within the cycle.

Our next question is from Meyers Shields with KBW. Please proceed.

Good evening. This is Jing Hong from there. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is a follow-up on the pricing dynamics. We do see some deceleration in casualty, so 6% this quarter. Do you think the trend will continue to decelerate or stabilize from here? Just wondering what is your expectation going forward?

What you're saying, let me make sure I understand the question. You're seeing a deceleration in the casualty pricing increases, not a decrease in casualty pricing. We're not seeing that. We disagree with that.

I think that on a quarter-by-quarter basis, you could get a little bit of mixed difference that might cause us to look at.

Let's face it, this thing's marching up at 6% to 8% a year, has been for three or four years. I don't think things are getting less risky out there. I think that the carriers are being smart by staying ahead of this and continuing to march forward on the casualty pricing. The other thing too is remember, I know you're asking questions about late. There's also exposure unit change underneath there. Also, our customers, remember this, when rates are coming down, they opt in for more insurance. They buy more insurance. When rates are going up, they opt out of it. We're actually seeing revenue increases in lines that are higher than what rate declines that we're seeing in it. The fact is people are buying more insurance within that line, i.e., more exposure. They drop their deductibles. They raise their limits, so they're buying more insurance.

The brokers will never track 100% the rate because of this opt-in and opt-out. We used to speak about that a lot 10 years ago. It's not just rate. It's just what are our customers' budgets going to afford? As our customers grow, we'll sell more insurance too. A person has 100 trucks, and they go to 105 trucks, they got to buy 5% more truck insurance.

Got it. Thank you. My second question is kind of on the industry. We noticed one broker continuously expand its wholesale operation in London and recently entered the U.S. retail market. Just wondering what's your take on this and how does this impact Gallagher?

I'm not going to comment on our competitor strategy. Things are perfect for us.

Our next question is from Mark Hughes with True Securities. Please proceed.

The employee benefits, you had some slippage in a couple of large life cases, but as a general line of business, how do you see that shaping up for fourth quarter of 2026?

The fourth quarter is a time where we do a lot of our helping customers' enrollment. We see that as pretty strong right now. I think that there's a lot of help as people are trying to change their dynamics, so we're helping folks out with that. I think that it gets into the executive comp lines where people are looking for their strategies coming into proxy season. The base medical sales right now too, I think that human resource leaders are waking up to the spiraling and the increasing cost of medical inflation, both on the utilization and then cost on the utilization. You're having a frequency that pops up.

I think this is going to be a time where if you go back, I don't know, X years ago, I think there's always a war for talent, but right now, I think human resource folks are really working hard on this escalating cost of medical inflation. That will put some opportunities into our books here in the fourth quarter, and I think it'll keep us really busy next year.

Yeah. How about new business, Pat? In your experience, at this time in the cycle, things are a little—understanding that casualty is still up and still is a tough market. Is it a little easier or harder or about the same to go out and get new business?

No, look, I think you raised a good question. It's kind of an interesting time. First of all, it's nice in a time like this you can deliver for your clients.

We're not constrained by capacity in just about any way. At the very same time, you have our littler competitors, and you'll recall that we compete 90% of the time against smaller players. They can surprise us with a quote we didn't expect. You can end up sitting there saying, "This is a great deal," and someone will come in with something crazy. Quite honestly, our clients are not happy. They've gone through five years of listening and listening to increases and what have you. We've been able to show them with our data and analytics why it's happening, where it's happening, what to expect. Sometimes that local guy will get a shot at something and deliver a price we've got to match or what have you.

I think that it's both a very good time for new business because our people that are aggressive on the phone, out talking to people, can really deliver. At the same time, we have to reemphasize and resell the existing book we have. I think we're good at that. Overall, I think it's probably a positive for new logos, and it's probably less of a positive for top-line revenue growth.

Our next question is from David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

Hey, thanks. Good evening. I had a question just on the property market. It was encouraging that RPC held in at down 5%. I think it was down 7% in the second quarter.

Given the light storm season, I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the property market overall going forward, not only for the fourth quarter, but then also for next year.

I think the property market is going in a direction that makes some sense given the fact that they've got good results. The cap bond industry is doing well. Record ILS activity, reinsurers are making a good return on what they put at risk. I think there is more capacity available. I think there's continued pressure on the downside.

That influences our pick. If it was down 5% to 7% this year and what we post this year, next year, if it's down 5% to 7%, that's baked into our outlook for next year.

I do not sense a dramatic decrease coming in the fashion of past cycles where all of a sudden you turn around and it's off 15%. I'm not sensing that at this point.

Got it. That's helpful. The sort of like a down 5% to 7% is embedded, Doug, in your early thoughts on next year looking similar to this year.

Okay. Great. Thanks for confirming that. And then also. It seemed like the RPC was fairly stable with what you guys had said in some of the other lines versus September. Just if I think holistically about the book, could you just talk about what RPC is trending at or what it was in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and maybe where it was in the first quarter?

Yeah. I think overall that we're seeing basically a 4% increase across the book.

I think Pat said that in the early part of his comments, probably got lost in there a little bit, that overall we're still seeing a business where the rate and exposure are moving north 4%, 5%, something like that.

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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