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Albemarle (ALB): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Albemarle

albemarle

Hello, and welcome to Abba Miles Corporation's Q4 twenty twenty four Earnings Call. I will now hand over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability.

Thank you, and welcome everyone to Albemarle's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings conference call. Our earnings were released after the market yesterday, and you'll find the press release and earnings presentation posted to our website under the Investors section at albemarle.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer Anil Sherry, Chief Financial Officer Netha Johnson, Chief Operations Officer and Eric Norris, Chief Commercial Officer are also available for Q and A. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including our outlook, guidance, expected company performance and strategic initiatives may constitute forward looking statements. Please note the cautionary language about forward looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation, which also applies to this call.

Please also note that some of our comments today refer to non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations can be found in our earnings materials. And now I'll turn the call over to Cat.

Thank you, Meredith. For the fourth quarter, we reported net sales of $1,200,000,000 and an adjusted EBITDA of $251,000,000 with year over year EBITDA improvements in all of our business segments. Turning to the full year of 2024, we achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $1,100,000,000 in line with our outlook considerations due to significant productivity and cost improvements, higher volumes and strong contract performance. Our Energy Storage segment delivered a 26% year over year increase in sales volumes, surpassing our initial guidance of 10% to 20% growth, driven by successful project ramps and increased spodumene sales. We also generated $7.00 $2,000,000 in cash from operations with an operating cash conversion rate exceeding 60%, which is above our target of 50% and in line with our long term objective.

Albemarle continues to act decisively across four key areas optimizing our conversion network, improving cost and efficiency, reducing capital expenditure, and enhancing financial flexibility. We'll touch on each of these areas in more detail later in the call. As part of these initiatives, today, we're announcing new measures to further optimize our global conversion network, including placing the Chengdu Lithium Conversion Facility into care and maintenance by mid year of twenty twenty five and shifting capacity at our Zhengzhou lithium conversion facility somewhat from hydroxide to carbonate. As we did last year, we are providing our outlook based on a range of lithium market prices, including a new $9 per kilogram scenario and updated $12 to $15 per kilogram and $20 per kilogram scenarios. Compared to 2024, we have improved our outlook across these ranges due to our ongoing efforts to enhance productivity and reduce cost.

Additionally, we have further decreased our full year 2025 CapEx outlook by an additional $100,000,000 and we now expect to spend in the range of $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 Thanks to these and other measures, we now have line of sight to achieve breakeven free cash flow in 2025. Now I'll turn it over to Neil, who will provide more details on our full year and fourth quarter performance, outlook considerations and market conditions. Then I'll conclude our prepared remarks with updates on our long term competitive position, strategic framework and execution.

Thank you, Kent, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 performance on Slide five. In the fourth quarter, we reported net sales of $1,200,000,000 which represented a year over year decline, primarily due to lower lithium market pricing. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $251,000,000 an increase year over year driven by improvements across all three businesses as well as reduced corporate costs. Note that last year's adjusted EBITDA included a $6.00 $4,000,000 lower of cost or market pretax charge.

Earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $0.29 adjusted earnings per share reflected a loss of $1.09 excluding gains on asset sales, reduced restructuring charges and discrete tax items. For the full year 2024, net sales were $5,400,000,000 marking a year over year decrease primarily related to lower lithium pricing, partially offset by robust growth in lithium volumes. Full year EBITDA reached $1,100,000,000 in line with our outlook considerations. Slide six shows the drivers of our year over year EBITDA performance. Our Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $251,000,000 surpassed last year's result due to higher volumes, productivity and lower COGS.

The EBITDA volume benefit was driven by higher volumes in specialties and the conclusion of the Marbel JV marketing agreement at the end of twenty twenty three. The COGS improvement was split between lower spodumene costs and reduced lower of cost or market adjustments. These benefits were partially offset by lower pricing and pretax equity income, mainly from reduced lithium and spodumene market prices. As Kent mentioned, adjusted EBITDA improved year over year in all three business segments, and we also reported lower corporate overhead costs. Moving to Slide seven.

We present our outlook considerations for 2025. As we did last year, we are providing ranges of outcomes for our energy storage business based on recently observed lithium market pricing, including year end twenty twenty four market pricing of about $9 per kilogram lithium carbonate equivalent or LCE, the first half twenty twenty four range of $12 to $15 per kilogram LCE, and the fourth quarter twenty twenty three average of about $20 per kilogram LCE. Within each scenario, we have provided ranges based on expected volume and mix. We anticipate that energy storage volumes will be slightly higher year over year. All three scenarios reflect the results of assumed flat market pricing across the year in conjunction with Energy Storage's current book of business.

These scenarios illustrate the improved stability of our Energy Storage business. Given our extensive resource positions worldwide and our cost and productivity actions, we can sustain margins even with lower year over year lithium pricing. Additionally, we have maintained significant operating leverage with potential to benefit if pricing increases. For example, if market pricing were to average $12 per kilogram LCE similar to last year, we would expect to see margin improvement rising from the mid-twenty percent range that we delivered in 2024 to the mid-thirty percent range. Moving to Slide eight, we present modeling considerations for Specialties, Ketchen and Corporate.

Specialties 2025 net sales are projected to be $1,300,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $210,000,000 to $280,000,000 Ketchum's 20 20 5 net sales are projected to be $1,000,000,000 to $1,100,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $120,000,000 to $150,000,000 The corporate outlook shows a planned decrease in capital expenditures, which are now expected to total $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 in 2025, down from $1,700,000,000 in 2024. Corporate costs in 2025 are expected to range between 70 and a hundred million dollars. We are seeing the benefits of our non manufacturing cost improvements and the changes in our operating structure. Corporate costs in 2025 are expected to decrease year over year, excluding favorable FX and interest income in the prior year. Adding it all together, slide nine presents Albemarle's comprehensive company roll up for each energy storage market price scenario.

Recall that the full year 2024 included approximately $100,000,000 of pretax equity income from one time additional offtake by our JV partner at Talison. Notably, assuming a consistent average lithium market price of $12 per kilogram LCE in 2025, we expect cost and productivity improvements to more than compensate for the reduced equity earnings. Turning to slide 10 for additional outlook commentary by segment. For Energy Storage, we anticipate volumes to be slightly higher year over year, primarily due to the ongoing ramp of the Solar Yield Improvement Project in Chile. In addition, we continue to ramp our conversion sites, including Meishan and Kemerton, which helps improve fixed cost absorption and result in reduced tolling volumes.

Last year, we indicated that about two thirds of our lithium salts volumes were sold on contracts, including both long term agreements with floors and other contracts. For 2025, we've indicated that 50% of our lithium salts volumes are sold on long term agreements with floors. This number now excludes other contracts to help simplify modeling. Our contracts continue to perform, and we have no significant contract renewals this year. We continue to have additional sales on contracts with volume commitments, giving us greater confidence in our volume expectations for this year.

We foresee a modest volume led recovery in specialties year over year, driven by strength in pharma, autos, and oilfield applications. Finally, in Ketchen, we expect modest improvements in 2025 results related to product mix, cost, and productivity improvements and continued execution of our turnaround plan. Please refer to our appendix slides in the deck for additional modeling considerations across the enterprise. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity metrics on Slide 11. We concluded the fourth quarter with available liquidity of $2,800,000,000 predominantly comprising $1,200,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents and the full $1,500,000,000 available under our revolver.

The measures we have implemented to enhance our cost structure and operational efficiency have also increased our financial flexibility. As a result of our proactive actions to reduce costs and optimize cash flow, we ended Q4 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.6 times, favorable to previous expectations. For additional information on covenants, please refer to the appendix. We have a single upcoming maturity, which is our €372,000,000 notes at 1.8% due in November of this year. Given the favorable rate, there is no immediate urgency to refinance, and we continue to evaluate our options for managing this maturity.

Slide 12 shows our focus on execution and converting our earnings into cash, evident in improved operating cash flow conversion due to operational discipline and cash management. For 2024, operating cash conversion was 62%, surpassing our target of 50% and aligning with our long term target range. This was driven by increased Talison dividends from higher Green Bushes sales volumes and inventory and cash management improvements across operations. Looking to 2025, we expect our cash dividends from Taliesin in the year to remain below historical averages as Taliesin completes the CGP three project at the Green Bushes mine. Nonetheless, we expect operating cash flow conversion to exceed 80% in 2025 above our long term target range due to ongoing working capital improvements and a $350,000,000 customer prepayment.

This prepayment relates to a recently signed contract for delivery of spodumene and lithium salts over the next five years at market index prices. As you see here, our efforts to enhance operating cash flow and cash flow conversion are paying off. This focus is evident in our free cash flow expectations this year. We now have line of sight to breakeven free cash flow through new capacity ramp ups, inventory management, bidding events, cost and productivity measures, and other cash conversion enhancements. Turning to Slide 13, I will provide some comments on the current conditions of the lithium market.

We are in the process of updating our longer term supply demand forecast in light of recent policy and market developments. We expect to provide a more comprehensive update with our first quarter results. Lithium remains crucial to the energy transition and the long term drivers of our business remain strong. The global energy transition is undoubtedly progressing. It is a matter of when, not if.

In 2024, electric vehicle registrations increased by 25% year over year. Sales reached a new quarterly record in Q4 with December achieving all time highs for both BEVs and PHEVs. Sales are influenced by customer preferences and the availability and cost of different models. As early as next year, we anticipate that consumers will find EV prices comparable to those of internal combustion engine vehicles. Global battery costs have fallen below the critical $100 per kilowatt hour pack average, which supports the relative EV affordability.

Plus, EVs represent only a portion of the broader picture. Grid storage demand is also performing exceptionally well, increasing by nearly 50% year over year in 2024, driven by installations in The United States and China. Grid storage demand now constitutes nearly 20% of global lithium demand, up from less than 5% a few years ago. On the supply side, there have been several announced curtailments both upstream and downstream. Non integrated hard rock conversion remains unprofitable, and larger integrated producers are facing pressure.

Our estimates of pressure on the global cost curve are unchanged. We think that at least 25% of the global resource cost curve is either at or below breakeven. Slide 14 details 2024 global EV growth by region. China's demand was the key global driver by far, with demand increasing 37% year over year, driven by balanced subsidies for battery EVs and plug in hybrids. China now represents about 65% of the market demand.

Europe had the weakest demand due to reduced subsidies and economic challenges, but potential price cuts and emissions targets may boost growth in 2025. North America grew 14% year over year with U. S. Trends improving due to more model availability and affordability. Overall, these trends reinforce confidence in the industry's long term growth potential, but continue to highlight that the regional dynamics are important factors to consider as the industry expands.

Thank you, Neil. Moving on to Slide 15. I will discuss the major initiatives we are implementing to reset our cost structure. These measures will enable us to sustain our leadership position and be competitive across the cycle. Moving to Slide 16, it is essential to place our recent initiatives within the context of the measures we have been implementing over several quarters as we navigate the current business environment.

This year, we are optimizing our conversion network, including new actions at Chengdu and Zhengzhou, improving cost and efficiency with significant progress toward our $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 target for cost and productivity improvements, reducing capital expenditures as we refine our twenty twenty five execution plans and enhancing financial flexibility. Taken together, we now have greater confidence in our ability to achieve breakeven free cash flow as early as this year at current price levels. Our initiatives are comprehensive and designed to sustain our long term competitive advantages in response to market conditions. As the dynamic environment persists, we are continually adding to our list of potential actions so that we can adapt as necessary. Turning to Slide 17 for additional details.

The shifting market underscores the need for a globally diversified conversion network with product flexibility. As previously mentioned, we are optimizing production from both our carbonate and hydroxide assets, achieving record production at the La Negra lithium carbonate plant in Chile and the Meishan lithium hydroxide plant in China. As we have reviewed our conversion network for improvement opportunities, we have made the decision to place our Chengdu plant on care and maintenance due to market conditions and shifting product mix. Chengdu is a relatively small plant with a capacity to produce approximately 5,000 tons of lithium hydroxide annually. We will continue to service those customers through the ramp of newer, larger plants in Chile, China and Australia.

This approach will enable us to provide high quality secure supply to our customers while driving network efficiencies and better leveraging our scale. Moreover, we have identified a highly capital efficient project at Zhengzhou to shift conversion capacity partially from hydroxide carbonate in response to strong market demand. In Australia, performance of our Kemerton lithium hydroxide facility continues to improve and the site recently commenced its first battery grade commercial sales. On the resources front, we are focused on preserving and maximizing the value of our advantaged low cost resources. The Solar Yield Improvement project has exceeded a 50% operating rate milestone and is progressing toward nameplate capacity.

We are leveraging our brine expertise, for example, in hydro geological mapping to maximize recoveries at every stage of the resource. At Greenbushes, CGP Three is expected to produce its first ore in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five, providing additional feedstock for increased lithium salts volumes in 2026. The Talison team together with our JV partners has undertaken technical studies to optimize Greenbush's operation over the life of the mine. Please refer to Slide 18 for more details on cost and capital considerations. We've achieved over 50% of the $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 cost improvement announced last quarter as we move quickly to execute on our plans.

Our goal is to reach a full run rate by year end, possibly sooner. Additionally, we're reducing twenty twenty five capital expenditures by $100,000,000 to $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 down more than 50% from 2024. This result stems from more detailed review of our projects. Full year 2025 CapEx will focus on core assets with priorities on health, safety, environmental improvements and cost reductions. Moving to Slide 19.

The actions being taken are intended to preserve Albemarle's competitive advantages and position the company for long term value creation as outlined by the strategic framework on Slide 20. Our strategic framework continues to guide how we operate Albemarle as we lead the world in transforming essential resources into critical ingredients for modern living. Our vision is still the same. We want to lead with impact and be purpose driven. The markets we serve are unchanged.

Both of our core businesses have enormous secular growth opportunities across mobility, energy, connectivity and health, including the energy transition, electrification, population growth and shifting demographics. I want to feature on that next row of boxes, which highlights our strategic and competitive advantages, and they're highlighted in more detail on Slide 21. First, our industry leading resources are unmatched with large scale, high grade and therefore low cost assets. This core advantage is enhanced through our innovation and advanced process chemistry capabilities. We've used this for growth in the past and now are increasingly aiming these capabilities toward cost savings and incremental growth opportunities.

Customer centricity is key. We stay focused on both the customer and end user integrating from the resource to the final product. Close collaboration with customers lets us understand market trends and technology shifts, allowing us to adapt in our dynamic markets. We continue to get positive feedback that our customers seek to work with Albemarle for our capabilities, scale and reach. Lastly, our commitment to people and planet stewardship is fundamental.

It underscores our value proposition by supporting our team and promoting sustainability across all our business lines and in the communities where we operate. There's no question that while our strategic framework has not changed, our execution has certainly adapted. We have implemented several key initiatives to enhance our operational efficiency and agility. Our commitment to innovation is evident in the strategic investments we have made in research and development. We are exploring cutting edge technologies and sustainable practices to ensure that we remain at the forefront of the industry.

This includes developing next generation polymeric flame retardants and optimizing lithium conversion to meet shifting market demand. Innovation is also core to preserving our resource advantage with projects like the Solar Yield Improvement Project in Chile and an innovative process upgrade in Jordan that we call NEBO, both of which allow us to increase production more sustainably without incremental brine pumping. We're also driving out cost and reducing capital intensity. For example, by leveraging advanced data analytics and digital tools, we are improving our ability to monitor and optimize production processes in real time. Throughout these changes, we remain dedicated to safety, sustainability and operational excellence, aiming to create long term value for our stakeholders while fostering a more sustainable future.

In summary, on Slide 23, Albemarle delivered solid 2024 performance, while acting decisively to preserve long term growth optionality and maintain the company's industry leading position through the cycle. Our full year 2025 company outlook considerations build on the progress we've made to drive enterprise wide cost improvements, strong energy storage project ramps and contract performance. We are focusing on taking broad based proactive steps to control what we can control and ensure we are competitive across the cycle. Albemarle remains a global leader, and I am confident we are taking the right actions to maintain our competitive position and to capitalize on the long term secular opportunities in our markets. I look forward to seeing some of you face to face at upcoming events listed here on Slide 24.

And with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to begin the Q and A portion.

Per person. Our first question is from Patrick Cunningham at Citi. Patrick, your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess my first question is on the contract mix. That remaining 50% piece not on long term agreements, should we assume most of those follow spot mechanisms? And then was there any significant tranche of those long term agreements that came up for renegotiation recently and had any respective reset in floors?

Yes. So, your comment about the other 50% pretty much at index is that's a good assumption. And the shift that we've moved and when we've reported previously kind of that it was about two thirds on contract. So, now we're reporting contracts only with floors. We had some long term contracts that didn't have floors and we pulled that out of that definition now.

So, that 50% has floors. I don't think we've had any we renegotiated in the near term recently or that have come up.

Understood. That's helpful. And if I'm reading the chart correctly, it seems like most of the CapEx reduction was CapEx previously devoted to the resource base. So where are you cutting back investments in resources? And given the current program, how quickly can you repossession and invest in additional brownfield to maybe support higher volume growth 2027 and beyond?

Yes. I'm not sure that's right. I mean, if you go back, then the capital we pulled back, a lot of it was conversion initially and then we've gotten a little bit more focused and we have pushed out on some resources and we're getting very focused on kind of the highest quality, lowest cost resources and we're not out at pursuing as many resources as we were at one time. So, I think the big piece, if you look at the capital that we cut out from our plans, a big piece of it was on conversion, at least initially. And then now we're getting a little bit more focused on operations, sustaining capital and we have cut back on resources as well.

And I think when we've said a number of times that we can we think we can grow at 15% kind of a CAGR over a period from 22% to 27% and we start running out of the steam a little bit, so those growth rates come down after 27% and a lot of that most of that is about resource.

Our next question is from Rock Hoffman with Bank of America. Rock, your line is open.

Thank you. Could your actions including cutting CapEx and placing Shumdu under care and maintenance influence the broader market? And how might your actions adjust further if pricing stays at the low end of the scenario analysis?

So, I think you said, do we think our actions at Chengdu will influence the market? So, no, I don't think so. I mean, we're doing that because of market conditions and product mix. So, we have an opportunity to shift some product from hydroxide to carbonate at Chensile. And then we're and Chengdu is one of our smallest facilities, which is why it's probably not wouldn't influence the market that much and then we make up that capacity because we're still ramping other larger assets at Zenu, Tinso as a small investment and then Meishan and Kimmerton as well.

Got it. And would you be able to explain the wide range in the tax guide for 2025?

Yes. Hi, good morning. This is Neil. Yes. So the wide range is really driven by the variety of scenarios that we have on the page or in the deck here.

One of the reasons why we had kind of an odd tax rate in the fourth quarter and really in 2024 overall is that, as you've seen over the last few quarters, we've been reporting losses in a couple of jurisdictions where we took tax evaluation allowances. So therefore, we didn't get to recognize the tax credits in our tax expense line. Those two jurisdictions in particular are China and Australia, where we have some particulars that require us to take those tax valuation allowances. So why there's a wide variety on the tax ranges, it's really about where the lithium price is and that influence on our pre tax income. Obviously, at the lower end of the range, what our guidance has said is, go to a tax rate very similar to what we did in 2024.

If you're at the higher end of the range, you kind of come more to our run rate kind of statutory rate that we have based on our geographic mix.

Our next question is from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. Ben, your line is open.

Hi, good morning. This is Apurva on for Ben. So you've discussed the line of sight to being free cash flow breakeven in 2025. So is achieving that really just a case of all the dominoes falling in place? Is there anything that could put this at risk beyond just pricing collapsing?

Well, I just we have to execute against our plan, right? So that is our plan to do that. We have to execute against that. And, a pricing would be one of those, but we have look, they're pretty aggressive plans. You see the actions that we've taken.

We think we've executed pretty well against it so far. So, but we just need to execute to accomplish that.

Perfect. And then as a follow-up, at this stage with all of the kind of revised plans that you've laid out, do you foresee any need for a capital raise in 2025? And if so, is there any sense of what magnitude or what form that could look like? I know last year you folks did the preferred convertibles. Is that kind of no longer in the picture given all of these actions that you've planned?

Yes. So, we're taking all these actions, so we don't do that. Right? So, and we are again, as I said, we have to execute against that, but we see ourselves being free cash flow positive through the year and we don't have plans to do an equity raise.

Our next question is from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. David, your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning. Kent, on your realized lithium prices in Q4, what was the difference of spread between your spot sales and your contract sales?

So we don't normally report on the exact pricing and particularly on our contract piece. So I'm going to decline to respond to that.

Understood. I believe back in Q4 you were saying that roughly 10% to 12% of global lifting supply was shut down or curtailed due to lower prices. Is that still a good estimate or has it moved up or since then?

Yes. I think we are saying about 25% we believe is underwater and we still think that's the case. But how much is actually curtailed or shutdown? Yes. So, probably about it's about half of that 25%, I would say.

And I think that both those numbers still hold.

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Jeff, your line is open.

Thanks very much. On Slide seven, where you provide different scenarios, is the meaning of this slide that you're if there were no change in lithium prices today, the energy storage adjusted EBITDA would be between $600,000,000 and $700,000,000 or because of your contract prices, it's more complicated than that.

Yes. Hi, Jeff. This is Neil. I think, my answer is probably going to be towards the latter part of how you described it that the prices that you see at the top of that slide are observed market prices, not our price what our realized prices are, but market prices. The numbers below that then is if you take those market prices and move that through our book of business, you get these kinds of EBITDA ranges.

Okay, great. And then what you do on the right hand column is you have some assumptions and you say, we assume spodumene market pricing averages 10% of the LCE price, but aren't spodumene prices already below that? And you say, you assume full Talison sales volumes. Are you currently receiving full Talison sales volumes? And what does that mean?

What has to happen for you to receive full Talison sales volume?

Yes. Jeff, let me take the second one. What we mean by full Talison sales volumes is that all the partners at Talison are taking their full allocation. That is the assumption that we've made. That hasn't always been the case if you go back over the years, but our assumption going forward is that's the case.

As where I sit right now promptly, is that is also the case right now. We're taking our full allocation in this environment. With regards to the spodumene average of 10% of LCE price, look to your point, it has moved around over time, anywhere from in the 5% to 10% kind of range. So what we wanted to do was at least just put a mark in, in terms of how we've done these considerations and we picked 10 because that was something that we sort of recently observed in 2024. But to your point, it can and it does, shift around with the market dynamics.

Our next question is from John Roberts at Mizuho. John, your line is open.

Thank you. I believe IGO guided for essentially flat 2025 volume at Green Bushes. Can you confirm that? And then where is your growth, the 5% to 10% growth for 2025 coming from?

Good morning, John. It's Eric. That's correct. CGP2 was fully utilized, which was the last expansion of Talison in 2024. CGP3 does not come on until the very end of this year.

So there is no growth capacity at Talison until that comes on. That's sort of the as you know and appreciate the lumpy nature of bringing on capacity. Our 5% to or 0% to 10% guidance on growth is all coming out of Chile, where the Solar Yield project continues to ramp and drives the bottlenecking effectively of the Negra plant to march towards nameplate.

And then on Slide 18, you're targeting sustaining CapEx of 4% to six percent. Is a percent of sales the right way to think about targeting sustaining CapEx given the volatility that you get in pricing?

Yes. So we that's the right point. So we and we say that on a stabilized market, right? So, and it's aspirational at the moment for us because we're not there, but we're also at what we think is the bottom of the market. So, it's a good benchmark.

We say mid cycle pricing is where we go to that. We're not at that level today. We still have some work to do around that, but we're getting focused on it and we want to have a benchmark out there that we can aim at.

Our next question is from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Joel, your line is open.

Hi, good morning everyone. I want to follow-up a little bit on Ben's associates prior question. So can you talk about what if you go into 2026, how much of the half of your sales here that are contracted floors, do we expect the floors have to be renegotiated? And how do you think about the balance sheet leverage if spot prices stick around where they are and we are renegotiating floors for 2026.

Yes. So we've look, we provided guidance for 2025, not 2026. But the way our contracts work is they don't usually end and then get renegotiated. They get adjusted over time. As our customer wants something, we want something.

They have adjusted. That's how they've worked overtime and we expect that to happen. I mean, you see our portfolio of contracts has become a little bit more, spot oriented in the recent past. That's because China is the biggest market. It's a spot market.

It's growing. We've got new capacity coming on there with Maison ramping. So that's really why that has shifted. Our contracts simply don't just come to an end. We negotiate terms somewhere along that and extend them out a year or two and we've done that over time and I suspect that's how it's going to play out going forward.

Okay. And then talking about a quarter in your estimates quarter of lithium supplies underwater, maybe half of that's curtailed. We just it seems like CATL is bringing back some of the pit light production in the last bunch of weeks. There's some maybe some rational behavior going on, although those mines are downstream to capture the battery. So, I mean, it seems like there are actors in this industry, that are maybe manipulating price, maybe don't have the same objectives as Albemarle and other public companies.

I mean, how do you act in this market? And is there any hope for a mature recovery such behavior by such actors continue?

Okay. So, I don't know if I can comment on all of that. I would say that we're pretty focused on making sure we can compete at the bottom of the cycle. And so, when you see us taking actions and targeted at that, so the capital that we pull back on our growth to reduce capital as a result of that, driving costs out of the business, getting more focused on cost, not as much on growth, and making sure that we can compete at that cycle and then pivot when the market comes back to take advantage of more growth and higher prices. That's the approach that we're taking.

Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Vincent, your line is open.

Thank you. I wanted to follow-up on the $350,000,000 customer prepayment and just a clarifying question to start off with, which would be, I assume that's included when you talk about the 80% conversion as well as being free cash flow neutral this year. I assume you're including the $350,000,000 and almost equal then, does that mean next year cash flow would be $350,000,000 less?

So Vincent, on the this is Neil. On the first part of your question, you are correct. So the $350,000,000 is included in our cash conversion number of 80% for 2025. And with regards to looking over to 2026, let me just give you maybe two things to think about here. You are correct that that $350,000,000 won't recur again in 2026.

But also remember that there are a lot of other things from a cash standpoint that will actually start to benefit us in 2026 and beyond. One of the key ones that I'll point out is that, from a Talison JV perspective, right now, they're obviously going through a large investment program. That program is going to be done at the end of this year. So we would expect even in this low environment as you would expect, Talison is a very competitive asset. So we would expect a return to dividend payouts from the JV as we get into 2026.

And then just as a follow-up on your cash flow statement. But for starters, thank you for the increased disclosure on working capital. But I have a reconciliation question. Do you have a new line item that says inventory net realizable value adjustment? And this year, it's a negative $500,000,000 Last year, it was a positive $6.00 $4,000,000 So I'm just wondering, does that line reconcile somewhere else within cash flow from operations?

Or what is that? Or any more detail you can provide would be helpful?

Yes. So that line, Vincent, is predominantly going to be a reflection of the lower of cost or market adjustment that we took in fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. And so that's why you see those adjustments. And so that's the best most of that line is related to that.

Our next question is from Alexei Efremayov from KeyBanc. Alexei, your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. If you look at your CapEx, you're talking about maintenance level. Assuming market prices don't change, can you get to that maintenance level in 2026? And would you be willing to do so under these conditions?

Yes. So I'm not going to make a commitment for capital for '26, but those are our aspirations is that we want to get to like maintenance capital at that particular level. So we still have in our capital opportunity growth opportunities, I'd say growth or cost saving opportunities, smaller investments. So, the Cinso investment that we talked about on the call is a good example of that. Low single digit millions of dollars, we were able to shift from hydroxide to carbonate about 10,000 tons a year.

So that I mean that and that's a great return project and pretty low capital. So we continue to look for those. Those tend to be more focused on cost savings now and maybe incremental growth like what we're doing at, at Chinseng. But the 4% to 6% at mid cycle, that's an aspiration that we work to and we continue to focus to try and drive to that. Whether we get there in 2026 or not, we've not laid out plans in that detail for 2026, so I can't answer that.

Thanks, Kent. And on CGP3, I mean, it's an important project for your cash flow this year and next year, especially any comments on risk assessment for delays, cost overruns, that kind of thing? Like how is the project going from your point of view?

Yeah, I think we are on schedule and around budget. I don't know exactly whether we're right on budget or not, but it's pretty close from a budget and a schedule perspective.

Albemarle (ALB) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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