T-minus 24 hours: On the eve of SpaceX IPO liftoff some Wall Street analysts say the stock is worth only half of Elon Musk’s price

SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO is set to become the largest in history this week, and, analysts say, among the most controversial. The IPO, which aims to raise $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at an offered price of $135 per share, starts trading on Friday, June 12, and will be listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX. Fortune’s Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez breaks down the bull case and the bear case for the stock.

Elon Musk has used 23 different banks to float his company, and the Financial Times points out that this has constrained each of those banks from publishing independent research about the company prior to its public launch. Morningstar, however, has published analysis of the company aaaand … the news isn’t good. SpaceX stock is probably worth $63 per share, not the $135 issue price. And SpaceX's “addressable market” is maybe $129 billion, not the $1.6 trillion Musk claims in his S-1, Nicolas Owens and his colleagues say. See their notes here and here.

• The space economy’s next frontier is in ground infrastructure, Northwood Space CEO says - Sebastian Herrera
• SpaceX IPO Is Said to Be More Than Four Times Oversubscribed - Bloomberg
• SpaceX IPO: the map Wall Street got wrong - Milk Road

THE MARKETS

Tech tumbles, inflation bites—but futures are blinking green

It was another tough day for U.S. markets yesterday as tech stocks led another broad decline. The S&P 500 lost 1.62% and has moved down in four of the last six sessions. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.98%. One of the worst performers was Tesla, which declined 3.8%. However, U.S. futures were up this morning after Europe and Asia delivered marginal gains.

• S&P 500 futures were up 0.76% this morning. The index lost 1.62% yesterday. 
• In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.68% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.78% before lunch.
• Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.43%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat. India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.15%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.55%. 
• Brent crude was $92 per barrel this morning.
• Bitcoin was $62.8K.

Keeping the faith: This morning, Goldman Sachs’ Ben Snider forecast that despite the volatility, the S&P would end the year at 8,000 (it’s currently 7,266.99). “Investors have dealt with uncertainty by anchoring on near-term earnings, and the outlook for earnings is solid,” he told clients.

Oracle debacle: “There were also developments on the AI-capex front as well. Most notably, Oracle shares fell -10.25% in after-hours trading after they reported higher capex spending than estimated, adding to doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure like data centers. Otherwise, the company also announced plans to raise another $40bn in equity and debt, including a previously disclosed plan to issue $20bn in shares,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said in an email this morning. The stock later recovered a little but was still down 7% prior to the opening bell in New York.

U.S. inflation (CPI) came in at 4.2% yesterday, which all but guarantees the Fed will keep interest rates on hold at the 3.5% level when it meets on June 17, according to CME Fedwatch futures.

THE FORTUNE CRYPTO 100

From Coinbase to BlackRock: the definitive crypto power list is here

It's here: the inaugural Fortune Crypto 100. In the tradition of the Fortune 500, our editorial team has ranked the most influential companies and protocols in the digital asset ecosystem — from crypto-native pioneers like Coinbase and Uniswap to Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock. See who made the list here.

BOX OFFICE STILL BOFFO

Disney determined to force “Dunesday” showdown

North American box office revenues rose 25% year-on-year to $1.8 billion in Q1, according to Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese and her team. “The summer slate is shaping up very nicely,” she said in a note. “We expect the 2026 box office to rise 13% year-over-year, to $9.8 billion, after 25% Q1 YoY growth.” 

There remains one fly in the summer ointment, and that is Disney’s “adamant stance in [having the release of Marvel's Avengers: Doomsday] going up against Dune 3 in December, forcing it to forgo an important IMAX window.” This looming clash of titles has become known as “Dunesday” among fans. 

IRAN

No end in sight

U.S. forces in the Middle East and Iran traded strikes for a second day. The U.S. struck a selection of Iran’s military and radar sites, according to the BBC, while Iran targeted U.S. bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The price of oil remained at around $92 per barrel this morning.

President Trump complained that Iran was taking too long to reach a peace agreement. “Iran is all talk and no action. … They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” he posted on social media. 

Trump has said that the end of the conflict is near 38 times since the start of the war on Feb. 28, according to a count by The Mirror.

The president also claimed that U.S. naval forces, in a “secret mission,” had successfully escorted 200 ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and “this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market.” He added: “This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran. Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost. It’s over for Iran!”

• “The Fake News Media refuses to report how EFFECTIVE the U.S. Naval BLOCKADE is, the most successful Blockade in the history of Naval Warfare. NOTHING GETS THROUGH unless we want it to. IT IS A STEEL WALL! Iran is doing ZERO business, not paying their military, or any of their bills, and quickly becoming a FAILED NATION! Lots of oil is getting out. Praise be to Allah!” he said on Truth Social. 

Context: The average oil tanker contains between 1 million and 3 million barrels of oil. On Trump’s numbers, those 200 ships would have carried an average of only 500,000 barrels each—which seems low. (Not all ships transiting the Strait carry oil, of course.)

• Trump’s ‘Secret Mission’ to Ferry Oil Past Iran Was Widely Disclosed - NYT
• Trump baffles Wall Street with top dealmaker praise for Citi - FT

MORE FROM FORTUNE

Gates testifies on Epstein: previous Fortune investigation reveals payments to his ex-girlfriend, $1M Microsoft deal - Eva Roytburg and The AP

How the World Cup is a high-stakes stage for Big Tech’s AI push - John Kell

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer - Sasha Rogelberg

Anthropic accused of ‘secret sabotage’ as Claude Fable 5 silently limits capabilities for AI researchers and developers - Sharon Goldman

A 5-week course and a guaranteed job: Meta commits $115 million to solve the skilled-trades shortage stalling its AI build-out - Jacqueline Munis

CHART OF THE DAY

$14 trillion being spent on AI is like adding a second Japan and another France to the global economy

According to Pimco, “AI investment is now large enough to drive macroeconomic activity. The buildout of AI infrastructure, combined with rising defense spending and energy security investments, could add roughly $14 trillion to global capital spending over the next five years,” Richard Clarida and his colleagues wrote in their recent outlook paper “The productivity payoff could arrive faster, and prove more disinflationary, than many investors now expect.”

NUMBER OF THE DAY

6 billion

The number of people FIFA expects to watch at least one match in the World Cup, which starts today. Four years ago, the final alone was watched by 1.5 billion worldwide, per data from Bank of America. (For the next month, CEOs the world over should expect their staff to be unavailable due to a large number of “meetings,” many of which will last 90 minutes or more.)

• Prediction market wagers on World Cup winner climb to $2bn - FT

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY

Trump says ‘I love the inflation’ after consumer price index hits 3-year high - CNBC

How the FSB cut Russia off from the internet - FT

"Regime Change": New book reveals Trump team's Epstein leak fears - Axios

OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating War for Users With Anthropic - WSJ

The War in Ukraine Has Now Gone On Longer Than World War I - NYT

ONE MORE THING

High school Nostradamus predicted in his 2020 yearbook: “Knicks in 6. 2026 NBA Finals”

Evan Pfeufer called it six years ago, and has the receipts to prove it. While his classmates dutifully listed their academic awards, extracurricular activities and sports accolades in the high school yearbook, the Long Island resident opted for just six simple words for his entry: “Knicks in 6. 2026 NBA Finals,” Pfeufer wrote next to his portrait in the 2020 Smithtown High School West yearbook. Game 6 is on June 17. The Knicks currently lead the best-of-seven series versus the Spurs 3-1.

Pfeufer’s prediction went viral after he shared photos on social media, the AP reports. One Instagram post has more than 130,000 views. He admits it was just a guess: “I could have said Knicks in 5, 2025, or Knicks in 7, 2027,” he added. “I guess I got the right year.”