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Economy

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Goldman raises recession odds to 30% on higher inflation, lower GDP outlook as oil prices surge

Goldman said it expected six weeks of Hormuz disruption, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80.

By Nick LichtenbergMarch 25, 2026
shinkarovsky
The job market is so bad that ‘reverse recruiters’ are charging $1,500 a month just to help people look for jobs
By Jake AngeloMarch 25, 2026
Why QVC is making such a big bet on TikTok
By Phil WahbaMarch 25, 2026
trump
Iran, the $39 trillion national debt and dedollarization: How Trump exposed America’s Achilles Heel in Hormuz
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 24, 2026
A man in a green ERO vest walks through an airport terminal.
ICE agents can make twice the salary of TSA employees—and economists warn their pay is more ‘shutdown proof’ than other government jobs
By Sasha RogelbergMarch 24, 2026
Latest Stories
NewslettersThe growing problem of ‘tech addiction’ spawns a new detox economy
By Allie GarfinkleMarch 25, 2026
America’s largest Medicaid insurer is making a move into building affordable housing, Centene CEO Sarah London announced at Fortune's Brainstorm Health conference in Dana Point, Calif., on Monday, May 20, 2024.
NewslettersThe youngest-ever female Fortune 500 CEO is reinventing the largest Medicaid insurer amid funding cuts and rising costs
By Diane BradyMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceToday’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on March 25, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceTop CD rates today, March 25, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
NewslettersAI plot twist: Why did OpenAI kill its Sora video star?
By Alexei OreskovicMarch 25, 2026
retirement
CommentaryOur retirement system gets a C-plus; policymakers have an opportunity to make it A grade
By Chris MahoneyMarch 25, 2026
America’s Most Innovative Companies
By FortuneMarch 25, 2026
david-f
CommentaryEurope has survived 3 energy shocks in 4 years. The only way out is to stop buying power from its enemies
By David FrykmanMarch 25, 2026
More EconomyPage 100 of 100
Sam Altman in a golf cart arriving for the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference.
CommentaryHow a Sam Altman-backed study into guaranteed income was widely misinterpreted
By Jesús GerenaSeptember 4, 2024
FinanceWhat to expect for inflation, employment, and trade in the ‘tight 20s’
By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul SwartzSeptember 3, 2024
The Volkswagen AG factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, on Thursday, May 23, 2024.
FinanceGermany in crisis: Intel and Volkswagen mull a multibillion-dollar withdrawal from the country
By Ryan HoggSeptember 3, 2024
factory worker welding
FinanceThe pillars of China’s economy are in a free fall that’s getting worse
By BloombergSeptember 1, 2024
Left: WAYNE, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 08: Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris waits to speak at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 on August 8, 2024 in Wayne, Michigan. Kamala Harris and her newly selected running mate Tim Walz are campaigning across the country this week. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images). Right Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks toward the stage to speak at a rally at the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse at Montana State University on August 9, 2024 in Bozeman, Montana. (Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)
PoliticsTrump vs. Harris: Which candidate has the better plan for America’s $35 trillion national debt?
By Eleanor PringleSeptember 1, 2024
phone showing Temu app
FinanceTemu’s woes are fresh signs of the doom loop headed for China’s economy
By Jason MaAugust 31, 2024
Elon Musk raising hands
FinanceElon Musk and others urging people to have more kids are essentially calling for a Ponzi scheme, experts say
By Jason MaAugust 31, 2024
FinanceHalf of all households in the country can’t afford a normal starter home
By Alena BotrosAugust 30, 2024
Kamala Harris wearing a white suit, is enthusiastically greeting and reaching out to a crowd of supporters while smiling widely. She is surrounded by people, including a security detail and another woman in a red jacket. Many in the crowd are capturing the moment on their phones. The atmosphere is energetic and joyful.
PoliticsDemocrats’ financial confidence surges from year-long low after Harris joins race
By Jarrell Dillard and BloombergAugust 30, 2024
Personal FinanceMortgage rates sink to 15-month low—a glimmer of hope for homebuyers
By Alex Veiga and The Associated PressAugust 29, 2024
CommentaryInflation, housing, immigration, taxes: The Harris-Walz economic policy scorecard
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen HenriquesAugust 29, 2024
Oil pump next to a house
FinanceEconomy gets a jolt of good news as GDP rises and inflation falls
By Paul Wiseman, Irina Ivanova and The Associated PressAugust 29, 2024
CommentaryThe world’s population is poised to decline—and that’s great news
By Chandran NairAugust 29, 2024
Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell
FinanceInterest rate cut expectations keep getting deeper as Powell’s ‘risk bias’ changes
By Eleanor PringleAugust 29, 2024
FinanceU.S. homes aren’t just more expensive. They’re also getting smaller
By Alena BotrosAugust 28, 2024
FinanceEconomists at Jackson Hole say more labor market cooling may cause bigger jumps in unemployment
By Reade Pickert and BloombergAugust 24, 2024
Larry Summers
Finance‘I’ve got to give the Fed credit,’ Larry Summers says after Powell’s rate-cut speech
By Christopher Anstey and BloombergAugust 23, 2024
Mohamed El-Erian
FinanceTop economist Mohamed El-Erian says traders are too aggressive on Fed rate cut expectations
By Carter Johnson and BloombergAugust 22, 2024
Thanks to feedback from Elmo’s January 2024 post on X that asked how everyone was doing, Sesame Workshop and the Harris Poll launched their inaugural State of Well-Being Report.
MindCOVID is negatively impacting Americans’ mental health, reveals Elmo-inspired survey
By Lindsey LeakeAugust 22, 2024
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
FinanceFundstrat’s Tom Lee says Jerome Powell is too dependent on data and it’s hurting the Fed’s decision-making abilities
By Paolo ConfinoAugust 22, 2024
A commuter in Canada isn't sure where to go now that the rails are closed
FinanceGovernment officials and businesses are scrambling after Canada’s rail lockout halts all shipments crossing the U.S. border
By Rob Gillies, Josh Funk and The Associated PressAugust 22, 2024
Ken Leech
FinanceStar fund manager takes leave amid accusations of cherry picking
By Silla Brush and BloombergAugust 21, 2024
FinanceInterest rate cuts are now all but guaranteed after dovish Fed meeting, experts say
By Will DanielAugust 21, 2024
FinanceAmerica was short 800,000 jobs last year—but most investors aren’t worried
By Will DanielAugust 21, 2024
Austan Goolsbee, Former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama, testifies before the Congressional Joint Ecoomic Committee on Capitol Hill February 28, 2013 in Washington, DC. Goolsbee and fellow economics professor Michael Boskin disagreed on the speed of the nation's economic recovery during the hearing, titled "State of the U.S. Economy." (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
FinanceChicago Fed president warns falling inflation and high interest rates could make things worse
By Eleanor PringleAugust 21, 2024
CommentaryGen Zers and millennials are flocking to places with these attributes—and it’s key to winning the war for talent
By Hilary DoeAugust 21, 2024
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research
FinanceFamed economist Ed Yardeni predicts it’ll be ‘one and done’ for Fed rate cuts despite Wall Street expectations
By Eleanor PringleAugust 21, 2024
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 15: EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NO BOOK COVERS. Taylor Swift performs onstage during "Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour" at Wembley Stadium on August 15, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/TAS24/Getty Images for TAS Rights Management )
SuccessSeismologists across Europe recorded Swifties making the ground shake. Taylor Swift concludes her Eras tour: Here are 5 things you should know
By Akshata Kapoor and AFPAugust 21, 2024
FinanceNYC shocks the market with housing lottery for apartments under $175k—near Central Park
By Nacha Cattan and BloombergAugust 20, 2024
Donald Trump
PoliticsTrump defends Fed policy talk, hints at rate-cut push
By Mark Niquette and BloombergAugust 19, 2024
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Magazine
The youngest-ever female CEO of a Fortune 500 company is fighting Trump's cuts to keep Medicaid strongAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 24, 2026
Commentary
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed itAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 23, 2026
Economy
It took 200 years for national debt to hit $1 trillion. Annual interest alone now exceeds that—a 'crushing legacy we must reverse,' says budget chairAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 23, 2026
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