Donald Trump’s tariff war has sent markets spiraling and threatens to upend global supply chains. But if you’re Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, a potential global economic crisis is just another profit-making opportunity.
O’Leary told the Financial Times that Ryanair had “very significantly extended” its fuel hedges over the coming two financial years at “dramatically lower oil prices.”
Crude oil prices fell below $60 a barrel earlier in April, their lowest in more than three years, as Trump’s tariff war torpedoed expected demand. They have since risen as Trump suspended “retaliatory” tariffs on several countries. However, prices remain depressed at around $64 a barrel as the U.S. steps up its trade war with China.
In the wake of that decline in prices, which in turn affected prices in the jet fuel market, Ryanair opted to hedge much of its remaining fuel requirements through the end of the 2027 financial year. The airline had previously hedged about 70% of its requirements through the end of the 2026 financial year, and 15% of the next year, O’Leary told the FT.
O’Leary suggested that move, which could lock in fuel costs at a lower rate than otherwise, would filter down to the price Ryanair charges its customers.
“We and our passengers are going to be very significant net beneficiaries from the dramatic decline in oil prices,” said O’Leary.
Airlines use hedging as a key avenue to cut costs, buying most of their fuel at a certain price in the hope they will rise in the future, allowing them to lock in savings. Because fuel makes up a bigger proportion of total costs for budget airlines, it’s an even more vital business area for companies like Ryanair.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent oil prices to their highest levels since 2008, airlines were spared some of the pain thanks to hedging strategies that looked in prices before they rose above $100 a barrel. Ryanair toasted €1.4 billion in savings that year on what it called “industry-leading fuel hedging.”
While many other airlines also enjoyed savings at the time, Ryanair rival Wizz Air demonstrated the perils of ignoring hedging. Share in the airline plunged in 2022 when unhedged rising oil prices hammered the airline’s bottom line. The group said in June 2022 that it had reinstated its hedging policy to protect against future price rises.
O’Leary’s bet isn’t guaranteed to work out. Indeed, they haven’t always in the past.
In 2020, Ryanair registered a profit hit of €300 million ($325 million) after crude oil prices plunged as low as $17, well below what Ryanair hedged prices at prior to expectations of global lockdowns. Around 90% of Ryanair’s expected fuel consumption at the time was hedged at prices above the lows experienced during the pandemic.
If a global trade war intensifies and hits demand further, oil prices could decline below the prices hedged by Ryanair, resulting in losses for the airline.
O’Leary, though, doesn’t appear concerned about a drop in demand at Ryanair. He said he didn’t see any signals of falling demand going into the busy summer season despite uncertainty from tariffs, which caused the IMF to significantly cut global growth estimates this week.
