- After weeks of global hesitation following President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements, trade talks are cautiously progressing, with China signaling a willingness to negotiate and Japan showing early signs of movement toward a potential deal. Though no agreements have been finalized, optimism is growing as U.S. officials suggest the first trade deal could be imminent, pending final approvals.
Tensions appear to be defrosting between the Trump administration and some of its key trading partners after the president’s announcement of wide-ranging tariffs—most notably with China, the only nation which responded with retaliatory measures of its own.
In the weeks following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements, the White House painted a picture of frantic activity and optimism for a rapid flow of deals coming down the pipe.
A month later, no such agreements have been signed.
While foreign governments were frustrated but willing to come to the table and work with the Trump administration, leaders from across the globe also made it clear that they wouldn’t race to sign on the dotted line for a deal which didn’t benefit their people in the long term.
Questions are mounting for the Trump cabinet about when anxious voters can expect some action, potentially signaling a fractional easing of the economic pressure facing consumers when the president’s 90-day pause expires.
Likewise Wall Street, already battered by the flip-flopping narrative from tariff threats to pause, are keen for signs that the worst of the uncertainty may be over and businesses can start rebuilding some confidence.
First mover and China
It seems that at last the much-anticipated “first mover” (the country which signs a deal with the U.S. first) may at last be coming to the fore.
Perhaps more significantly China—the world’s second-largest economy and the primary source of trade war fears—has offered the Trump team some reprieve by saying it is “assessing” the American’s approach.
In a statement on Friday China’s Ministry of Commerce said “senior U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed their willingness to negotiate with China on tariff issues” and have done so “proactively…through relevant channels.”
The more nuanced tactic is seemingly more palatable to the Chinese government than President Trump’s initial approach, which has been to robustly critique the U.S.’s economic rival and threaten its government with escalating sanctions if they did not agree to terms.
Likewise, this week Beijing also rejected President Trump’s claim that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had called him directly.
“China’s position has always been consistent: if it’s a fight, we will accompany it to the end; if it’s a talk, our door is open. The tariff war and trade war were unilaterally initiated by the U.S.,” China’s Commerce spokesman added in the statement on May 2. “If the U.S. wants to talk, it must show genuine sincerity—be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariff increases.”
The minister added: “Saying one thing and doing another, or even attempting to use talks as a pretext for coercion and blackmail, will not work with China.”
Green shoots with Japan
Japan was one of the first countries to race to Washington D.C. to begin negotiations with the Oval Office after the tariff announcements, but initial talks concluded without a resolution.
Indeed Japan’s prime minister prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said he was in no rush to work to America’s timeframe if it meant making too many concessions.
“I don’t think it’s good to compromise a lot in order to just get the negotiations done,” he told parliament according to local reports.
But green shoots now seem to be appearing following a second round of conversations between Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
“We were able to have concrete discussions on topics such as expanding our bilateral trade, non-tariff measures, and cooperation on economic security,” Akazawa told reporters Thursday following the two-hour meeting, adding further negotiations could continue in May.
Akazawa added he hoped to see a deal signed by June—the first time a concrete date has been floated—but cautioned: “It is not simply a matter of speed, as there are national interests that must be protected on both sides, which will take some time. There are still many issues that need to be addressed and resolved before a final agreement can be reached.”
Conversations also seem to be progressing with India, with diplomats on both side confirming developing negotiations. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X following vice president JD Vance’s visit to India that the duo “reviewed the fast-paced progress following my visit to the U.S. and meeting with President Trump.
“We are committed to mutually beneficial cooperation, including in trade, technology, defence, energy and people-to-people exchanges.”
It seems at last the first deal is almost over the line, with Secretary Lutnick telling CNBC earlier this week that “I have a deal done, done, done, done.”
Lutnick added he is waiting for sign-off from the unnamed nation’s prime minister and parliament, but added he expects this “shortly.”
