Tax season started in late January, but the IRS’s latest statistics show that many Americans are still waiting to file their taxes. As of February 7, 7.7% fewer tax returns have been received by the agency compared to a similar time frame last year, according to its latest data release.
While the IRS expects filing numbers to even out, the IRS.gov website has experienced a 40% decline in visits this year to date over last year.
Francine Lipman, CPA, a tax law professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, says the reasons could be endless but probably come down to simple procrastination.
“Despite all the Super Bowl ads, I don’t believe that tax issues are on people’s radar yet,” adds Lipman.
This is surprising considering the political climate, says Jordan Rippy, an accounting professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Carey Business School, who expected to see an uptick in returns filed this year.
“Given the general climate surrounding the new administration, I would have expected more anxiety in the general population and a desire to receive refunds more quickly,” she tells Fortune.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reportedly visited the IRS on Thursday to begin analyzing the agency’s operations. Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, later posted on X that “if your refund is delayed, they could very well be the reason.”
Average tax refunds are higher this year so far
The rise in electronic filing is one of the biggest changes to the tax system in the last decade. With over 90% of individual taxpayers now filing their returns online, the process has become easier to handle for many Americans. But taxpayers still miss out on over $7 billion in underclaimed and unclaimed tax credits and deductions each year.
In the 2025 tax season to date, tax filers have received a 18.6% increase in their average refund amount ($2,065) compared to this time last year ($1,741). The IRS cautions this isn’t a perfect indicator of the final trend in tax refunds, since it’s early in the season. The agency says most refunds are issued within 21 days.
In the final analysis, the average refund last year was around $3,138. Compared to 10 years prior, last year’s average rebate was down nearly 30% on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Rippy says she is surprised that average tax refunds have not decreased more as Americans realize they can adjust their withholdings and get more money per paycheck throughout the year.
“If you receive a large tax refund, what you've essentially done is given a loan to the government over the last year that you didn't have to give them, and you've done that interest-free,” says Rippy.
At the same time, she admits that the fact that many Americans expect a big refund year after year is a good thing, as it’s a form of forced savings. While many end up saving their refund, others use it to pay down debt, make a home improvement, or go on vacation.
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“There is no real danger in it,” she says. “It's just that sort of foregone opportunity to have used those dollars last year sometime to invest on the upside—you might have invested those dollars and generated a real return.”
That makes tax season a great time of year to sit down and take a serious look at your personal finances.
“At the start of every month, I have a little alert on my calendar that says, ‘Go change the air filter in my house, like my HVAC,” she says. “Tax season is like that blinking red light.”
Rippy believes the single most important thing people can do is make a handful of good decisions early, like setting up automatic savings deductions from your pay, which lets them reap the benefits later—like George Foreman’s grill: set it and forget it.
Do yourself a favor: Tackle taxes early
Rippy and Lipman both agree that the biggest gift you can give yourself this tax season is to start early. Waiting until the last minute will almost always cause unnecessary stress.
“You don't want to be crushed and under the weight of April 15 and you have to take off a day of work to try to solve your problems because you did figure it out last week or last month,” Rippy adds.
For those filing on their own, Rippy advises people to do what works best for them. Online tax software, for example, will walk filers through step by step and help uncover any potential tax complications or opportunities, like tax credits. For example, maybe you installed a solar panel this year or are a small business owner and upgraded your home office.
If a question arises, be skeptical of advice from platforms like Reddit or Quora; Rippy adds that only consider an answer if it has multiple responses affirming it. Working with a tax professional is always advisable.
Above all, being tax-cognizant throughout the year will help you stay on top of your finances and avoid any surprise payments to the IRS.
“Every transaction has tax consequences and a simple call to a competent CPA can be very cost-beneficial before the transaction is done,” Lipman says.
More on taxes:
- 70% of Americans are eligible to file their taxes for free. Here’s what you need to know
- Where’s my refund? Here’s when you should receive your tax refund from the IRS
- Navigating the IRS alphabet soup: There are nearly two dozen different 1099 forms, we explain them all
