As the United States prepares to revisit the USMCA, recent calls by congress to impose new limits on Mexican avocado imports have reignited debate over how best to support California growers. 

Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) won’t fix the unique problems and production costs that California faces. Instead, they would create an economic headache, straining supply and jeopardizing America’s jobs, health and wallets. Seasonal tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) would limit Mexican supply during the March–September window, when imports are roughly half of U.S. supply. They would raise prices without addressing growers’ underlying costs.

Their concerns deserve attention. American farmers deserve policies that help them compete and thrive. California growers face real pressures, including high input, land and water costs.

The history

Mexican avocados reached the U.S. in stages. Alaska got access in 1993. In 1997, the USDA allowed Mexican Hass avocados into 19 northeastern states, for part of the year. Year-round access to all 50 states began February 1, 2007. California growers fought the earlier expansions in court. While some states began receiving Mexican avocados in 1997, nationwide access did not begin until 2007. 

According to USDA data, U.S. avocado consumption has grown more than sevenfold since the late 1990s, rising from approximately 424 million pounds in 1998/99 to 3.25 billion pounds in 2024/25.

Today, avocados are no longer a specialty purchase. They have become a regular part of Americans’ diets. Per capita avocado consumption reached 9.5 pounds annually in 2024/25, up from just 1.52 pounds in 1998/99.

The supply math

American demand has far outgrown domestic avocado production. California had approximately 49,300 acres of bearing avocado farmland in 2025, producing an average of 6,940 pounds per acre. Meanwhile, the United States imported nearly 2.9 billion pounds of avocados that year, with Mexico supplying 83% of those imports. The scale of that gap illustrates why California production alone cannot replace the volume supplied by Mexico.

The tomato comparison

We have recently seen how agricultural trade policy can reverberate through grocery aisles. After Mexican tomatoes lost their duty-free status, U.S. tomato prices climbed sharply, rising nearly 40% over the prior year, compared with a 17% increase in food prices overall according to CBS News. While tariffs were not the only factor, with weather conditions and rising production costs also contributing to price pressures, the experience illustrates how trade restrictions can compound existing supply challenges and increase costs for consumers.

Economic impact

According to a 2026 economic impact analysis by Texas A&M University researchers, Mexican Hass avocado imports generated an estimated $7.1 billion in U.S. economic output and supported more than 37,000 jobs in fiscal year 2025/26. The study, funded by the Mexican Hass Avocado Importers Association (MAHIA), found that economic output associated with those imports has increased more than 320% since fiscal year 2012/13, although annual contributions have fluctuated with changes in import volumes and prices.

That economic activity extends to California itself. The researchers estimate that Mexican Hass avocado imports generated approximately $968 million in economic output and supported more than 5,300 jobs in the state in fiscal year 2025/26, benefiting businesses across transportation, distribution, retail and other services. These findings illustrate how California participates in the economic activity generated by avocado imports, even as its domestic growers face competitive pressures.

What will help growers

California growers face real challenges, including rising labor and water costs and regulatory pressures. Addressing these challenges requires targeted policies, including measures to improve water efficiency and manage rising production costs. However, supporting domestic growers and maintaining a reliable, integrated North American avocado supply chain must work in tandem, not at the expense of one another.

The Economic Stakes for America

Mexican avocado imports have helped meet growing American demand, expand the overall avocado market and support U.S. jobs. We can support American farmers without forcing American families and workers to bear the cost. Supporting growers is a legitimate goal. The question is whether a TRQ achieves it, and I maintain it would not.

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