Politicians all over the world have been grappling with how to deal with low voter turnout, as it keeps falling in recent decades even as the number of countries holding elections (and the voters voting in them) has grown, according to International IDEA. Some jurisdictions have implemented paid holidays from work while political campaigns increasingly offer rides to the polls. Then the president of the United States recently began toying with another, arguably more enticing initiative: offering cash.
Should the GOP sweep the midterms come November, President Donald Trump promised every American adult a $5,000 check in their mailbox. It’s not the first time the noted dealmaker offered such a deal, but what is fresh is new details of who will actually get the check, which seemingly change with every passing day as the election draws closer.
As a result, voters are taking Trump’s word with a grain of salt. An Economist and YouGov poll from September found that only 21% of registered voters think Trump would “definitely or probably would” issue that $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of Congress, while more than half (57%) said he probably or definitely would not. Even among Republicans, less than half (45%) think Trump will follow through.
Now announcing the Trump Dividend
Trump first announced the payment on Sept. 9 as a $5,000 “dividend” for every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans sweep both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. Speaking at a Republican midterm convention in Dallas, he introduced a dividend component—saying the payment would be made because of what he described as the country’s “tremendous strength and success economically.”
“If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000,” Trump said during the midterm convention. “It will be called the Trump Dividend.”
In a post on Truth Social on Oct. 3, Trump wrote: “If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000.”
But that post gave a slightly diverted message from just a day earlier: “The highly popular $5,000 Trump Dividend will be distributed to every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Oct. 2. “Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
But on the same day during a campaign stop in Alabama,Trump said the $5,000 check will go to “all adult citizens.”
The difference between every adult U.S. citizen and every U.S. citizen is roughly 73 million people. There were roughly 270 million adult U.S. citizens in 2025 according to Kids Count Data Center, meaning a $5,000 payment to every adult would cost the government about $1.3 trillion—if the plan solidifies and it comes out of the government’s coffers.
Extending the payment to all U.S. citizens—about 343 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau—would push that price tag to over $1.7 trillion. That’s a $400 billion difference. And Trump himself acknowledges the size of the bill.
“The Trump Dividend is approximately $1 trillion, but we have a record-setting $21 trillion that’s being invested in our country in just the last 15 months,” he said in October.
When asked to clarify who would be eligible for the dividend, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Fortune: “President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong” and that “with the continued support of the American people, President Trump will keep delivering real results.”
Voters aren’t convinced
According to Economist and YouGov’s poll, among likely voters, 61% said Trump would not deliver compared with 21% who said he would. The proposal itself is also under skepticism: 45% oppose the payments entirely while only 43% support them.
Voters’ doubts about Trump’s follow through may come partly from the president’s history of proposing other direct payments that never followed through. In 2025, Trump supported a proposal for a $5,000 “DOGE dividend” that would have distributed part of the savings from Elon Musk’s government-cutting effort to taxpayers. The idea never became a federally approved payment as DOGE’s initial $2 trillion savings projection did not materialize.
And later last year, Trump said Americans would receive a tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per person, excluding high-income individuals. The dividends never went out, however, as the administration sent out $100 billion in tariff refunds through the end of July.