If that number makes you check your 401(k) twice, you’re in good company. In the same survey, 51% of plan participants said they expect to have less than $500,000 saved by retirement, including 24% who expect less than $250,000. Only 30% think they’ll reach $1 million. The survey polled 1,500 U.S. investors ages 30 to 79 in March and April. Some Wall Street leaders put the bar even higher: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned that Americans need $2 million to retire and “almost no one is close.”

Vanguard’s retirement-plan data suggest that a seven-figure goal remains a long way off for many savers. Among Vanguard defined-contribution plan participants ages 65 and older, the average account balance was $330,186 at the end of 2025. The median was just $103,202. Those balances reflect only what participants accumulated in Vanguard-administered workplace plans. They may also have IRAs, pensions, other workplace accounts, or other assets. Still, most Americans are well short of what they think they need.

So how much do you actually need? There is no official price tag for “comfortable.” Where you live, what you spend, and how much Social Security covers can move the answer dramatically. Change the assumptions, and the number moves again.

In a recent analysis, Investopedia estimates that a single retiree would need anywhere from about $644,000 in North Dakota to roughly $1.02 million in New Jersey. Its national baseline is what the average American 65 or older living alone actually spent in 2024: about $59,600 a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Social Security covers about $23,700 of that, since the average retired-worker benefit was $1,975 a month in December 2024. That leaves about $35,900 a year. Under the 4% rule, covering that gap takes a nest egg of about $898,000.

Those numbers come with caveats. Investopedia’s “comfortable” budget reflects average spending, including travel, dining out, and entertainment. The outlet notes that retirees who spend at the median typically need 15% to 20% less. Its estimates also leave out state income taxes on retirement income, long-term care, and local senior property-tax breaks. They also assume current benefit levels hold, even though Social Security faces a funding shortfall that could force benefit cuts if Congress doesn’t act.

The size of your check matters almost as much as your ZIP code. Investopedia’s state-by-state figures show that a retiree collecting $1,500 a month would need about $786,000 in North Dakota and $1.16 million in New Jersey. At $3,000 a month, those figures fall to about $336,000 and $711,000. At $5,000 a month, Social Security alone would cover the estimated annual cost in every state except nine high-cost ones: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Washington.

The state spread comes largely from local costs. Investopedia calculates housing separately, using Census data on what single older renters, homeowners with mortgages, and homeowners without mortgages pay in each state. It then adjusts retirees’ other spending for regional prices.

Housing is where geography bites hardest. Investopedia found that for Americans 65 and older living alone, annual housing costs run from about $7,000 in West Virginia to about $19,000 in California. Those costs include rent or mortgage payments, insurance, property taxes, and utilities. Everyday prices vary less. Goods and services cost about 6% more than the national average in Hawaii and about 7% less in South Dakota.

Retirement Living uses the same 4% rule and gets a very different answer. It starts with the national average retiree spending and adjusts that figure using each state’s cost-of-living index. It then subtracts each state’s average Social Security benefit. Investopedia instead uses a single national benefit, because state averages reflect where retirees worked rather than where they live now. Under Retirement Living’s model, retirees need about $729,000 in Oklahoma and nearly $2.17 million in Hawaii. Massachusetts and California both top $1.5 million. Fortune‘s earlier look at how long $1 million lasts in every state found a similar pattern, with the money running out in about 12 years in Hawaii.

Same 4% rule, very different assumptions about what life actually costs.

How much a single retiree needs in every state

The figures below are Investopedia’s estimates for a single retiree who collects the average Social Security benefit of $1,975 a month and withdraws 4% of savings a year. Each entry shows the estimated annual cost of a comfortable retirement and the nest egg needed to cover what Social Security doesn’t. Washington, D.C., not listed below, comes in at about $1.01 million.

• Alabama: $51,200 a year; $687,000 nest egg
• Alaska: $57,910 a year; $855,000 nest egg
• Arizona: $56,210 a year; $813,000 nest egg
• Arkansas: $49,630 a year; $648,000 nest egg
• California: $64,300 a year; $1,015,000 nest egg
• Colorado: $58,810 a year; $878,000 nest egg
• Connecticut: $60,970 a year; $932,000 nest egg
• Delaware: $56,000 a year; $807,000 nest egg
• Florida: $58,030 a year; $858,000 nest egg
• Georgia: $54,250 a year; $764,000 nest egg
• Hawaii: $64,350 a year; $1,016,000 nest egg
• Idaho: $53,110 a year; $735,000 nest egg
• Illinois: $57,150 a year; $836,000 nest egg
• Indiana: $52,160 a year; $711,000 nest egg
• Iowa: $50,400 a year; $667,000 nest egg
• Kansas: $51,830 a year; $703,000 nest egg
• Kentucky: $50,780 a year; $677,000 nest egg
• Louisiana: $50,490 a year; $670,000 nest egg
• Maine: $55,140 a year; $786,000 nest egg
• Maryland: $60,880 a year; $930,000 nest egg
• Massachusetts: $61,160 a year; $937,000 nest egg
• Michigan: $53,590 a year; $747,000 nest egg
• Minnesota: $56,430 a year; $818,000 nest egg
• Mississippi: $49,820 a year; $653,000 nest egg
• Missouri: $51,880 a year; $704,000 nest egg
• Montana: $53,260 a year; $739,000 nest egg
• Nebraska: $51,920 a year; $705,000 nest egg
• Nevada: $57,590 a year; $847,000 nest egg
• New Hampshire: $60,360 a year; $917,000 nest egg
• New Jersey: $64,440 a year; $1,018,000 nest egg
• New Mexico: $52,150 a year; $711,000 nest egg
• New York: $61,660 a year; $949,000 nest egg
• North Carolina: $53,380 a year; $742,000 nest egg
• North Dakota: $49,450 a year; $644,000 nest egg
• Ohio: $52,700 a year; $725,000 nest egg
• Oklahoma: $50,800 a year; $677,000 nest egg
• Oregon: $58,900 a year; $880,000 nest egg
• Pennsylvania: $54,550 a year; $771,000 nest egg
• Rhode Island: $58,490 a year; $870,000 nest egg
• South Carolina: $52,870 a year; $729,000 nest egg
• South Dakota: $50,720 a year; $675,000 nest egg
• Tennessee: $51,070 a year; $684,000 nest egg
• Texas: $54,790 a year; $777,000 nest egg
• Utah: $55,890 a year; $805,000 nest egg
• Vermont: $56,900 a year; $830,000 nest egg
• Virginia: $57,400 a year; $842,000 nest egg
• Washington: $61,270 a year; $939,000 nest egg
• West Virginia: $50,030 a year; $658,000 nest egg
• Wisconsin: $53,750 a year; $751,000 nest egg
• Wyoming: $53,020 a year; $733,000 nest egg