• See the list here: Most Powerful Women Asia - Fortune editors
• How Christina Zhu turned Sam’s Club into Walmart’s unlikely growth engine in China - Nicholas Gordon

Why Oura pulled its IPO

Hours before Oura, the smart-ring maker behind one of the season’s most closely watched IPOs, was expected to price its shares, CEO Tom Hale delivered a stunning announcement: The company was calling off its public debut, citing “uncertainty in the IPO market.”

But no one takes that statement seriously, according to Fortune’s Morgan Chittum.

“What else are you gonna say? ‘We aren’t meeting our expectations.’ I mean, that’s just not a thing to say to the public,” Kat Siu of IPOX said. 

“They always blame it on market conditions,” said Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida. “They never say, ‘Uh, the reason we’re pulling the IPO is we had unrealistic expectations about how much we’re worth.’”

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It’s ‘more likely than not’ humanity loses control: Former AI insiders testify safety fixes may be ‘duct tape that will fall off later’ - Catherina Gioino

Amazon’s answer to data center backlash: $1 billion for community college and home energy upgrades - Mia Osmonbekov

Inside Europe’s biggest companies—and the forces reshaping them - Sam Forsdick

Redfin signals a shift in power to buyers as a record share of sellers cut prices for this time of year—but 7% mortgage rates are a problem - Bilin Lin

Wealthy boomers doubt their heirs will keep giving as $124 trillion changes hands, BofA finds. The data shows a different reality - Sydney Lake

THE MARKETS

A break in the bond drama gives breathing room for stocks

The drama in the global bond markets eased off in the last 24 hours, helped by a drop in the price of oil, and stocks are broadly up this morning as a result. Oil fell to under $100 per barrel, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell beneath 5.3%, sitting at 5.27% at the time of writing. Even French government bonds rose, despite rioting on the streets in protest at lack of funding for schools. The Macron government has repeatedly attempted to get its debt under control but has met political opposition at every step—and that's why traders are selling out of French bonds.

“Markets have had another volatile session over the last 24 hours, as investors grappled with European contagion risk and a fresh Treasury selloff,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid told clients this morning. “On the bright side, yesterday brought some initial signs that the pressure on France was stabilizing, with a clear outperformance in French debt.”

• S&P 500 futures were up 0.26% this morning. The index rose 0.66% yesterday. 
• In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.94% in early trading, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.86% before lunch.
• Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.89%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.05%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.63%. China’s markets are closed. 
• Brent crude was $98 per barrel.
• Bitcoin was at $85,986.

France leads the way when it comes to bond market mayhem

This chart from Ed Yardeni and Toby Hearst at Yardeni Research shows countries ranked by the increase in yields on their 10-year bonds, versus a year ago. France has got it the worst, with the U.S. coming in as a decent runner-up. Both countries' bonds performed worse than those of Italy or Greece—something that rarely happens.

“Six of the 22 bond markets on our list have seen 10-year yields climb 100bps [basis points] or more this year. France leads at 131bps, with the U.S. second at 112bps. Italy, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea round out the group,” the pair told clients.

• “France is probably too big to fail, but it is not too big for the markets to punish” - FT
• France’s Appetite for ‘Magic Money’ Has Turned Into a Debt Bomb - WSJ
• France Set for Nationwide Strikes, as School Protests Escalate - NYT

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“We take the unpopular stance that a bond-market crisis would be a good thing.”

—AllianceBernstein’s Inigo Fraser Jenkins, who argues that such a crisis is “probably the sole route to engender change and avoid worse intergenerational tension later. However, in practice politicians might balk and stop yields from rising by fiat, thereby triggering inflation and currency implications.”

Why stocks haven’t been hammered by falling bonds—yet

The S&P 500 seems to have cruised on, unaffected by the drama in bonds, which is odd because panic in one sector usually leads to panic in another. The index is up 13.56% year-to-date.

In fact, this is something of an illusion, according to Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo. “Over the past month, the S&P 500 is up around 0.7%. Yet only two sectors are positive: technology, up 7.1%, and communication services, up 3.3%. Every other sector is down,” she writes.

“There are two simple ways higher yields can hurt equities,” she says. “First, bonds become more attractive. If investors can earn more than 5% from U.S. government debt, stocks need to offer a more compelling return to justify the additional risk. Second, borrowing becomes more expensive. Companies refinancing debt, households taking mortgages and businesses funding new investment all face a higher cost of money. But the impact is not equal across the market. Some sectors feel it much more quickly than others.”

• Surge in borrowing costs hits corporate America - FT

CHART OF THE DAY

Mortgage applications have ‘collapsed’ as the U.S. bond market drives up financing costs

Mortgage rates track the longer end of the bond market. The 10-year Treasury recently hit 5.3%, and the average mortgage rate is now around 7.3%—high enough to price many out of the market. Indeed, mortgage applications have “collapsed” this year, according to Christopher Wood at Jefferies. They’re down 6% week-on-week and down 37% from this point last year. 

“This is another major negative for the White House incumbent,” he told clients. “This is why the 47th American president’s polling on the economy remains dire.”

• Kevin Warsh’s Fed has a rent problem: Higher rates could fuel a ‘doom loop’ in housing, top economist warns - Eleanor Pringle

NUMBER OF THE DAY

6 New York cities

The equivalent shortfall of power needed by the AI buildout, as estimated by Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd and his colleagues. “The midpoint shortfall remains at a daunting 33 GW [gigawatts]. As a point of reference, New York City demands 5.5-6 GW of baseload power: we are short power by six New York cities,” or 34% of the estimated power needed, they said in a recent note.

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY

Warnings of possible Iranian drone attack led US to pull bombers from RAF Fairford - FT

Trump offers U.S. help to Russia after plague death; WHO assesses the situation as low risk - CNBC

GOP senator warns Anthropic of "alarmist" approach to AI - Axios

Saudi-Backed Forces Launch Fight to Free Bab al-Mandeb From Houthis - WSJ

DeepSeek to Raise at Least $12 Billion in Tencent-Backed Funding - Bloomberg

Sailors reportedly offered $25K per trip to move oil out of the Persian Gulf amid strikes, drone attacks - NY Post

ONE MORE THING

AI will kill off the keyboard, some believe

Take this with a pinch of salt but … The London School of Economics has warned that the days of the keyboard are numbered, according to Fortune’s Orianna Rosa Royle. By 2028, voice AI will become the default way of working. In the next few years, a study says, workers will be talking to their phones or laptops instead of typing, thanks to the explosion of AI.

“By the time Gen Alpha enters the workforce, AI will be fully embedded, and their work will be spoken long before it’s ever typed,” Paul Sephton, global head of brand communications at Jabra, told Fortune. 

(Also worth bearing in mind: The keyboard has been around for decades and has survived every technical revolution thrown at it. Don’t be surprised if it survives this one too.)

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