Polymarket is in the hot seat after an investigation alleged that the prediction market paid influencers to film fake trades and fabricate winnings. Legal experts say those allegations could result in regulatory consequences for the company—if President Donald Trump’s administration chooses to act.
The $9 billion company allegedly asked creators with American audiences to falsify trades as a marketing tactic, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. Since 2022, Polymarket had been banned from the United States, but in January it won a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets.
If federal agencies have the appetite for investigations, the CFTC would likely focus on Polymarket’s efforts to attract U.S. customers without proper registration, while the Federal Trade Commission would zero in on its influencer‑driven marketing, according to Steven Lofchie, a partner at the firm Norton Rose Fulbright, where he specializes in securities and commodities law.
“The [FTC], as opposed to the CFTC, might have the easier case against Polymarket,” he said. “The CFTC could bring charges about evasion of registration requirements.”
In a statement, a Polymarket spokesperson said it would review how its marketing content is created and distributed: “We are conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it complies with our standards, as well as applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.”
Enforcement dialed down
Despite the legal reasoning that Polymarket’s fake ad campaign could land it in the crosshairs of federal regulators, investigations under the Trump administration are unlikely, said Daniel Wallach, a gaming attorney and sports-betting legal expert at the law firm Wallach Legal.
Although prediction markets are growing rapidly, with billions in new bets flowing into platforms like Polymarket and competitor Kalshi, the CFTC under Trump has shed roughly a quarter of its staff and pushed out career officials who sought to investigate crypto companies and prediction markets, according to the New York Times.
Moreover, the agency’s lone chairman, Michael Selig—who previously represented crypto and prediction market companies as a corporate lawyer and later led the SEC’s crypto task force—is a longtime ally of those industries.
And the Trump family has ties to prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr. is a paid advisor to Kalshi and a major investor in Polymarket through the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner.
“The reality is that the CFTC…has moved away from an enforcement priority and is now marching in lockstep with the prediction market exchanges,” Wallach told Fortune. “I’m skeptical that there would be any real consequences coming from this agency that only has one commissioner out of five [and] has experienced a 25% reduction in staff over the past year,” he said.
Wallach added that the most likely legal fallout would come from private civil lawsuits, brought by bettors who lost money after relying on Polymarket’s misleading marketing.
The CFTC and FTC did not immediately respond to Fortune’s requests for comment.