Roberto Vannacci‘s “National Future” party is injecting uncertainty into the conservative bloc that has underpinned Meloni’s government, exposing tensions ahead of the 2027 general election.

Meloni’s party has its roots in fascism and she campaigned as an EU-skeptic, prompting analysts to speculate she would be a hard-line nationalist if elected. Instead, she has been a pragmatic conservative leader with a more moderate, pro-European approach, which also ensured a period of unusually long stability for Italy.

In early September, if still in office, Meloni will become the longest-serving head of government in the 80-year history of the Italian Republic, surpassing the late Silvio Berlusconi.

A rival carving out space to her right could test her ability to hold that tack, analysts say. The question is no longer whether Vannacci will influence the vote, but whether Meloni can contain, co-opt or outmaneuver her challenger.

Vannacci calls his party the ‘real right’

“With us, Italy will once again be the home of Italians,” Vannacci said at his party’s founding assembly on Sunday. “Everyone must feel safe in their own home.”

One day earlier, he proudly described his core lawmakers as the “dirty dozen,” stressing his outsider role.

Vannacci, 57, emerged politically with his 2023 self-published book “Il mondo al contrario” (The World Upside Down), which drew controversy for harsh attacks on LGBTQ+ people, migrants and minorities.

He entered politics a year later with Matteo Salvini ’s anti-migration League, winning more than 530,000 preferences in European Parliament elections. He left the League in February to launch his Futuro Nazionale, a break Salvini called a “betrayal.”

Since then, Vannacci has consolidated support. The party says it has surpassed 100,000 members and now has eight deputies, including defectors from the League and centrist Forza Italia, underscoring unease within Meloni’s coalition.

He rejects the traditional “far-right” label, calling his movement the “real right,” and has accused Meloni of failing to turn shared priorities into policies. He’s for now ruling out a possible alliance.

Vannacci platform centers on hard-line positions on security and migration, including calls for the “remigration” of foreigners he considers not integrated; opposition to EU policies such as the Green Deal; and criticism of Western sanctions on Russia.

Vannacci’s rise comes as far-right and nationalist parties gain ground across Europe, reshaping the political landscape and focusing on polarizing issues like migration and security.

A potential wild card

Analysts say Vannacci’s rise in Italy reflects a political and cultural shift.

“He is commanding a sort of political raid for hard-right votes within the main parties of the coalition,” said Massimiliano Panarari, politics professor at University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. “Meloni’s strategy was to have no one to her right. Now she does.”

Panarari described Vannacci as “an entrepreneur of fear,” whose rhetoric pushes themes that Meloni can no longer openly embrace in government, like openly anti-gay and anti-feminist positions.

Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, said the development introduces “something new — an opposition from the right to the current government.”

“Now there is a force outside the majority that challenges it on popular issues like migration, security and culture wars,” he noted.

That shift carries electoral weight. Polls give Vannacci’s party single-digit support, but that’s a potentially decisive share when time comes for coalition building, given Italy’s main center-right and center-left blocs are so closely matched.

“They could be the difference between finishing ahead or behind,” Pregliasco said, describing Vannacci as a potential wild card.

Meloni has a tough choice to make

For Meloni, the dilemma is strategic.

“In terms of political debate, he introduces instability on the right,” Pregliasco said. “She and her allies must decide whether to absorb him into the coalition — but that would create problems.”

Addressing parliament earlier this week, Meloni accused Vannacci-aligned lawmakers of undermining the government and favoring the left, while her Brothers of Italy party and centrist allies have ruled out electoral agreements.

For now, Meloni has avoided direct confrontation, a strategy seen as both calculation and a bet that Vannacci’s momentum may fade.

“The issue is what to do with this loose cannon of Vannacci, which could drag the right back toward the far right,” Panarari said.

“I’m not sure it would benefit Meloni to shift further right before general elections. Her approach will likely be marked by ambiguity and ambivalence, as long as possible.”