FIFA projected $30.5 billion in economic impact, and hotels planned accordingly: higher rates, longer minimum stays, and room blocks held for the international wave expected to arrive.

But that wave has not shown up the way many expected. Instead, demand is skewing domestic, last-minute, price-sensitive, and uneven—far from initial projections. For hotels and host cities, that changes everything.

The international split is the whole game

Host cities were promised a 50/50 international-domestic split that is not coming to fruition, fundamentally altering the economics.

International visitors spend four to five times what domestic travelers spend. They stay longer, spend more, and contribute across hotels, restaurants, transportation, retail, and attractions. 
That makes their absence the defining challenge for host cities.

What hotels and destinations can do before it’s too late

Holding rates steady and hoping for a late surge is not a strategy.

If bookings are soft, move on pricing. If minimum stays are creating friction, loosen them. If shoulder dates are weak, price them accordingly. And if cancellations are rising, assume more are coming and plan around the room nights you can actually defend.

As ticket prices soften, hotels have a narrow window to convert renewed fan interest into overnight stays—especially among last-minute buyers.

Additionally, international travelers are likely to lean into online travel agencies (OTAs) more than domestic visitors. Hotels should fine-tune OTA strategies to target international markets while maintaining pricing discipline for domestic demand.

For destinations, the message cannot stop at the match. A ticket gets someone into the stadium. It does not guarantee they stay three nights, eat downtown, visit attractions, or come back later. That requires deliberate marketing.

The World Cup is still a massive opportunity. But at this point, the upside will come from operators who manage the next few weeks actively, not those waiting for early forecasts to materialize.

Host cities need a better summer story

The World Cup should not be treated as the only reason to visit.

We know big soccer matches move people. According to our data, the Brazil vs. France friendly at Gillette Stadium in March pulled 7.6% of its North American audience from more than 150 miles away. The Club World Cup final at MetLife Stadium last summer drew 21.9% of its audience from more than 150 miles away. The question is not whether fans will travel—it is whether destinations can turn a match into a multi-day visit.

June and July are peak travel periods in markets like Boston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and New York. Cities must clearly communicate why visitors should extend their stay beyond match day.

Fans tend to show up for the game and leave quickly. The average length of stay for Americans at the Doha World Cup was roughly 1.6 days. For many, the trip centered entirely on the match. Cities need to treat every visitor as a potential tourist, not just a ticket holder.

Destinations with strong summer programming, cultural events, historic anniversaries, festivals, and attractions have a real advantage right now. They can capture both World Cup fans and travelers who might otherwise avoid peak-season crowds or pricing.

Perception is doing damage policy alone would not

There are several reasons international demand may be softer. Ticket prices are high. Airfare is expensive. Hotel rates in many markets have been elevated since the World Cup announcement.

At the same time, international travelers are navigating a complicated perception environment around visas, entry requirements, and the broader political climate.

Notably, many of the policies driving concern have not been implemented. The $250 visa integrity fee has been delayed, DHS social media screening is not in effect, and the administration has explicitly pushed these measures past the World Cup

But perception often outweighs policy for travelers deciding whether to book. Marketing and policy have to work together. It is not enough for travel to be possible. Travelers need to believe it will be seamless, safe, and worth the cost.

What I am watching now

At this point, the story is going to move quickly. Between now and kickoff, three signals will determine whether demand is building, shifting, or not materializing as expected.

Cancellation rates. Hotels are starting to adjust pricing, and that triggers the cancel-rebook cycle at volume. This means guests will cancel a booking made three months ago at $500 and rebook the same room at $350. Properties that thought they had revenue locked in are about to find out whether they do.

Seat maps on international flights. Anyone can pull this up right now. If premium and economy seats from London, Frankfurt, or Tokyo are still widely available this close to opening day, that tells you more about inbound demand than any airline earnings call will.

Which host cities pivot fastest. The ones leading with a full destination message, not just the match, will capture World Cup travelers and the normal summer visitors who might otherwise assume the city is overrun.

The math has changed

The opportunity is still real. But it has to be managed against the demand that is actually showing up, not the demand originally forecast.

That means watching cancellations, adjusting rates, marketing the full destination, and treating every visitor as more than a ticket holder. The World Cup can still deliver meaningful economic impact—but only for operators willing to adapt to the demand in front of them.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.