• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
EconomyDebt

U.S. debt is like a Hallmark movie boyfriend who eventually gets dumped for a small town firefighter, budget watchdog warns 

Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 13, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
According to Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, a holiday-movie trope could also describe the bond market's feelings about U.S. debt.
According to Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, a holiday-movie trope could also describe the bond market's feelings about U.S. debt.Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

This rom-com formula is now a staple of holiday TV programming: a busy professional from the big city goes back home for Christmas and falls for a local guy after admitting her current boyfriend wasn’t her true soul mate.

Recommended Video

According to Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, this trope could also describe the bond market’s feelings about U.S. debt.

During a Senate hearing this week, she was asked what might trigger a debt crisis and why it hasn’t happened yet despite the explosion of borrowing in recent years. Gimbel replied it’s basic supply and demand, and investors are settling for the easier option, even if it doesn’t meet all their needs—they simply don’t have a better option right now, but that may not always be the case.

“The way that I sort of put it is we are currently the boyfriend at the beginning of the Hallmark movie in the big city where the girlfriend is still going out with him even though she knows that it’s wrong,” she explained. “But at some point she’s gonna go home to the small town and find the nice firefighter and realize that there’s another option.”

For now, as Gimbel explained, investors are settling for the status quo, but it’s only a matter of time before we hit a Sleepless in Stagflation moment and investors find better options. Much like a would-be suitor exaggerating how big their heart is, publicly held debt is pretty substantially—it already is as large as the U.S. GDP, and it will exceed the all-time record set after World War II in the comings years. Publicly held debt then will continue marching higher with no sign of abating as retiring baby boomers drive up entitlement spending.

Like the big-shot professional visiting the small town, treasury bonds are still in high demand, especially for now as a safe-haven asset, despite all the turmoil from President Donald Trump lately. The U.S. debt market remains by far the largest and most liquid, underpinned by the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.

While Gimbel said she doesn’t know when U.S. debt will fall out of favor, the eurozone has been trying to make its debt more appealing to investors.

Europe is a top holder of U.S. debt, so any shift away from Treasuries could worsen the outlook by sending yields higher and adding to borrowing costs.

In 2021, Europe launched the Next Generation EU borrowing program financed through joint debt issuance. While intended as a pandemic-era stimulus program, the breakthrough measure was seen as boosting the euro’s status as reserve asset.

To be sure, other countries also have safe haven assets, including Germany and Scandinavia. But individually, their debt and currency markets aren’t big enough to fill the needs of global finance.

Gimbel pointed out that investors have piled into Switzerland lately, adding that the U.S. is fortunate that Swiss financial markets can’t absorb that much capital.

Helped by low debt levels and a reputation as a secure financial hub, Switzerland has long been seen as a safe haven. That sent the Swiss franc soaring 12.7% against the dollar last year as Trump’s trade war jolted markets. It shot up further this year after Trump threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark.

The war on Iran could worsen the U.S. debt outlook as additional military spending adds to the deficit, while higher bond yields due to oil-fueled inflation translate to bigger interest costs.

“The more we make ourselves less attractive to markets, the more likely it is that you will have a fiscal crisis,” Gimbel warned. “We are literally relying on the fact that markets have no place to go.”

Subscribe to Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter delivers clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world’s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.
About the Author
Jason Ma
By Jason MaWeekend Editor

Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Economy

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Economy

MSCI delays Indonesia’s market status review until November
AsiaIndonesia
MSCI delays Indonesia’s market status review until November
By Prima Wirayani, Bernadette Toh and BloombergJune 23, 2026
2 hours ago
Alan Greenspan testifying before the Senate Banking Committee.
BankingFederal Reserve
The man who invented the Fed’s magic trick just died. His successor is about to try it again
By Eva RoytburgJune 23, 2026
10 hours ago
Woman hides from the sun in front of Big Ben in London
EconomyEurope
‘London isn’t just calling—it’s cooking.’ Europe’s largest economies face over $600 billion in heat-driven losses by 2030
By Tristan BoveJune 23, 2026
12 hours ago
Young woman shopper in store
SuccessPersonal Finance
As 93% of Americans lean on coupons to get by, Bed Bath & Beyond is splashing out $100K on a home renovation for their thriftiest shopper
By Emma BurleighJune 23, 2026
13 hours ago
ks
PoliticsUnited Kingdom
10 years of Brexit means 7 Prime Ministers and a broken British politics
By Jill Lawless and The Associated PressJune 23, 2026
14 hours ago
iran
EnergyIran
The Strait of Hormuz is ‘open’ — but it’s mined, half-empty, and subject to tolls both sides say they might charge
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips, Mae Anderson and The Associated PressJune 23, 2026
14 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
17 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
19 hours ago
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
Investing
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
By Nick LichtenbergJune 22, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
16 hours ago
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 22, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 22, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.