Treasury head Scott Bessent says Jamie Dimon should relax about the bond markets: ‘For his entire career he’s made predictions…none of them have come true’

Speaking on CBS News’ Face the Nation on June 1, Bessent addressed Dimon’s latest worries about what host Margaret Brennan referred to as a debt market crisis. 

“I have known Jamie a long time. And for his entire career, he’s made predictions like this,” Bessent told Brennan. “Fortunately, none of them have come true.” 

He added, “That’s why he’s a banker, a great banker. He tries to look around the corner.” Bessent also took issue with the widely reported prediction that the GOP spending bill—which slashes government benefits and cuts taxes, mostly for the wealthy—would cost $4 to $5 trillion over the next decade.

“We are going to bring the deficit down slowly,” Bessent said, noting that income from tariffs and savings from President Donald Trump’s price controls on prescription drugs would make up the difference.  

“We didn’t get here in one year, and this has been a long process,” he said. “So the goal is to bring it down over the next four years, leave the country in great shape in 2028.” 

Asked for comment on Bessent’s assessment, a JPMorgan Chase spokesperson referred Fortune to Dimon’s interview on Friday with CNBC, when the CEO addressed the Reagan National Economic Forum and described the looming debt problem, among other geopolitical concerns.

Bond market jitters

Dimon is far from the only one concerned about U.S. debt and overall policy direction: The bond markets share his worry. In April, a bond selloff that drove interest rates on U.S. debt to historic highs prompted Trump to pull back on his tariff plans, putting a “pause” on reciprocal tariffs planned against most of the U.S.’ trading partners. 

In May, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, meaning the U.S. no longer gets the highest rating from any of the three major credit agencies. During that month, Treasury yields, which represent the level of risk investors perceive from investing in the U.S., rose steadily. Just last week, yields on the 30-year Treasury note crossed 5%, a psychologically important barrier that, outside of a surge in October 2023 prompted by inflation worries, hadn’t been seen since before the Great Recession. 

Here’s how the bond meltdown would happen, as Dimon laid it out Friday. As the U.S. issues debt, in the form of Treasuries, investors will demand a higher yield, or interest rate, to compensate for the perceived risk that the debt might not be paid back. 

“Something like $30 trillion of securities trades every day. These are investors around the world,” Dimon said, speaking to FoxBusiness’s Maria Bartiromo on the sidelines of the Reagan National Economic Forum. “People vote with their feet—and they’re going to be looking at the country, the rule of law, the inflation rate, the central bank policies… Those rates aren’t set by central banks,” he said. 

That means nervous investors could potentially bid up the interest rates on Treasuries and affect what the U.S. government pays to borrow money, as well as things like mortgage rates—without the Federal Reserve being able to do anything about it.

Getting it down will require a reduction of debt, Dimon said. 

With the U.S. government’s spending post-COVID, “we hit $10 trillion in five years,” he said, speaking to CNBC at the same event. “When Ronald Reagan first warned about deficits in the 1980s, “the debt to GDP [ratio] was 35% and the deficit was 3.5%. Today it’s 100%, and the deficit is at 7%. Highest [in] peacetime ever.”

“What I really worry about is us. Can we get our act together, our own capability, our own management,” Dimon later said. “If we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That’s a fact. Just read history.”