Casey Ames is used to tough competition. As a longtime Amazon seller in a competitive market, he faces fierce, lower-priced rivals every day.
Still, the 34-year-old father of two has managed to build a profitable 10-person Idaho-based small business that generated $5 million in sales over the past year. His company Harkla, sells sensory swings and other specialized products aimed at children with special needs, mainly on Amazon, as well as offering online courses through his own website.
But Harkla, he says, will be decimated within a few months after President Trump’s plans to institute an additional 104% in tariffs on imports from China goes into effect as planned on Wednesday. (Note: Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday that the new China tariffs would increase to 125%.)
“104% is absurd,” Ames told Fortune in an interview on Tuesday. “The business just won’t work.”
Ames says he has an inventory order ready to ship from China that would have been subject to $4,707 in tariffs in 2024, in part because his best-selling product was not tariffed at all. With Trump’s 104% China tariffs, Ames estimates his company will have to pay more than $190,000 in duties when the merchandise arrives at a U.S. port around the middle of June. If that happens, Ames said he’ll be forced to shut down his physical product business, lay off at least half his staff, and focus solely on the online education business. Not only is the sheer size of the tariffs a killer for his business, but the lack of prep time to try and adjust his supply chain makes the situation untenable.
“If I end up shutting down half the company, I can look them straight in the eye and tell them I tried everything that I could and I think they would believe me,” Ames told Fortune of his staff. Ames said he’s previously tried to source his company’s “sensory swing” in the U.S. several years ago but the quotes he received were higher than his retail price for the product. He and a supply chain consultant he hired are reaching out to more U.S. textile manufacturers again now, but he’s not hopeful.
“We are not a big company; when they see our numbers, maybe that’s why they quote us what they do,” he said, noting how much more flexible Chinese suppliers are. “I would love it to be a realistic option, but I’m pessimistic.”
Ames is not alone. Thousands of small and mid-sized U.S. businesses make a living by designing useful physical merchandise, manufacturing it in China, and selling it via the dominant online shopping mall in the country, Amazon. These are what modern “Main Street” businesses look like in 2025, whether politicians are aware of it or not. In 2023, Amazon said these businesses employed nearly 2 million people in the U.S.
And if the tariffs remain at the current levels – tons will go kaput, while many China-based rivals, which make up at least half of all sellers on Amazon, will likely still figure out ways to survive, if not thrive. Lower labor costs, tighter relationships with suppliers, and other tax and regulatory advantages have long given them a leg up on many American competitors, and has left some top Amazon merchants practically begging for government intervention, as Fortune has reported.
On LinkedIn this week, one China based e-commerce consultant boasted of the current mindset of China-based Amazon sellers he spoke with at a summit.
“As a key component of China’s exports, if cross-border e-commerce sellers are not panicking, then I believe it’s others who should be worried,” he concluded.
Either way, Amazon’s core business should come out OK. Amazon generated more than $150 billion in revenue in 2024 from fees it charges sellers – the equivalent of a top Fortune 25 business in its own right. And for Amazon, it doesn’t matter whether the sellers are based in the U.S., in China, or in Greenland for that matter. If U.S. sellers like Ames drop out, many industry insiders believe sellers in China will simply fill the void.
Yes, the China-based sellers may still need to raise prices to offset some of their increased tariff costs. Yes, if an economic downturn causes U.S. consumers to pull back on discretionary spending, that may crimp Amazon’s sales growth and marketers may advertise less on the site. Yes, Amazon may have to raise prices on some of the inventory it carries itself. And, yes, it’s possible that Walmart – with its own extraordinary pricing power – could steal some share from Amazon.
But as the dominant online retailer in the US, with one of the stickiest membership programs ever created, customers who shop online will continue to turn to Amazon. Amazon should be just fine. But many of its “Main Street” sellers won’t.
Are you a current or former Amazon employee or seller with thoughts on this topic or a tip to share? Contact Jason Del Rey at jason.delrey@fortune.com, jasondelrey@protonmail.com, or through messaging apps Signal and WhatsApp at 917-655-4267. You can also contact him on LinkedIn or at @delrey on X, @jdelrey on Threads, and on Bluesky.
