What Ukrainian CEOs are saying

After Friday’s tense White House meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, fears are running high. But Ukraine’s economy and tech sector have been remarkably resilient. Its economy grew 3% last year, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which just revised down its forecast to 3.5% growth in 2025.

Kosovan says his 500-person company continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than before Russia’s 2022 invasion, and he is investing in Ukrainian startups through his SMRK venture fund as other sources of capital dry up. “We continue to innovate and build products.” That doesn’t diminish the tragedy of the 10.6 million Ukrainians who’ve been displaced or the tens of thousands killed so far in the war. When I spoke with Kosovan last week, however, he reinforced my perception that his country’s cities and companies are damaged but far from destroyed. It would take Russia more than 83 years to take over Ukraine at its current rate of advance, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

Still, there’s no question Ukraine’s business leaders face daunting challenges, from traumatized employees and damaged property to postponed projects and the extreme volatility of everyday life. Kosovan moved his wife and children to Spain and has 200 of his employees outside the country. “We went from growing 40% a year to around 5%,” he says, adding that he’s expecting better growth this year but “tariffs could have a significant impact.” [Other CEOs echoed that concern in our recent roundtable on Globalization 2.0 with BCG’s Matthias Tauber.]

Kosovan wants the world to know the depth and strength of Ukraine’s tech sector. He even commissioned a book called Innovation in Isolation: The Story of Ukrainian IT from the 1940s to the Present. It will be available March 4 on Amazon. Ukraine companies are “experimenting with new technologies on the battlefield that can help improve the security of other nations,” he says.  “Like natural resources, this is like only the tip of the iceberg.”

More news below.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com.

Top news

Russia is happy with the way things are going. In the aftermath of the Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office shouting match, Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “The collective west has partially ceased to be collective, and the fragmentation of the collective west has begun.” Peskov also said the post-Biden U.S. policy change on Ukraine “largely coincides with our vision.”

U.S. drops anti-Russian cyber defense policies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered Pentagon cyber security operatives to stop offensive operations against Russian targets. The move is intended to encourage Russia’s President Putin into further talks on Ukraine.

Cyber security experts are baffled by the move. A memo sent to staff at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency set new priorities for the agency, and Russia isn't one of them. One source told The Guardian, “People are saying Russia is winning. Putin is on the inside now.”

Europe scrambles for a plan. EU and UK leaders are waking up to the fact they may have to defend their borders without U.S. help. France floated a ceasefire proposal for activity in the air and the sea. The U.K. convened a meeting of leaders on Sunday to formulate a military response, but it looks like they still want U.S. cooperation before proceeding. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy said the door was open if Trump wanted to restart talks. 

An ace up Europe’s sleeve? Brussels is sitting on $218 billion in Russian central bank assets seized and frozen as part of the sanctions regime against Moscow. That’s more than all the funding the U.S. provided since the start of the war. Unanswered question: Is Europe willing to go it alone if the U.S. continues to balk? 

RFK Jr. urged people to get vaccinated against measles. He was previously a vax sceptic (and kinda-sorta still is).

The Oscars: In case you missed it, Anora was the big winner, taking home five statues. It’s about a stripper who marries her Russian client. Full list of winners here.

From Fortune

Wojcicki wants back in
Former 23andMe CEO Anne Wojcicki is offering just $74.7 million to buy out the DNA testing company that was once worth $6 billion. Wojcicki tried to purchase the company last year, but her proposal was rejected by the company’s board. Fortune

Atlanta Fed predicts GDP contraction
The Atlanta Fed now predicts that the U.S. GDP will contract by 1.5% in the first quarter despite predicting 2.3% growth just nine days earlier. The change comes after a $153.3 billion trade deficit in January was reported on Friday. Fortune

BofA is still bullish on Nvidia
Bank of America analysts insist that Nvidia stock is a buy and will see a 50% price jump despite failing to blow out Wall Street’s earnings expectations for Q4 last week. “The company remains in a dominant position of leading the AI market towards compute-intensive inference, agentic applications, and physical AI/robotics,” Bank of America said last week. Fortune

The markets

• The S&P 500 closed up 1.59% on Friday but was down 0.67% for February ... Pre-opening futures contracts looked rosy this morning, up 0.32% … Japan was up strongly this morning … In Europe, defense industry stocks are up sharply as investors bet on military action vs. Russia ... Bitcoin regained some ground and is back above $92K after President Trump talked up the idea of a strategic national crypto reserve on social media.

From the analysts

• Apollo on recession chances: “Since 2023, the likelihood of a recession has declined steadily. But in recent weeks, the probability of a recession over the next 12 months has ticked higher in the US, UK, and Europe,” see chart here.
• Goldman Sachs on global credit: “The dominant theme in February has been growing discomfort driven by policy uncertainty, weakening consumer confidence, and still tight valuations. In both IG and HY, credit has been performing in line with its historical beta to equity markets so far. We continue to advocate taking advantage of still-low hedging to add downside protection,” per Lotfi Karoui et al.
• Wedbush on Nvidia: “... the DeepSeek soap opera fears and many bears yelling fire in a crowded theater on Big Tech Capex (MSFT) have caused white knuckles for the tech trade to kick off 2025. Nvidia delivered a massive quarter as the company handily beat the top-line … the tech haters always hate so the bears that have missed the historical upward move in Nvidia and Mag 7 stocks the last few years will try to poke some hole around guidance should have been even stronger... the ‘cracks in the AI thesis drumroll’ were all smoke and no fire. The bears were hoping for some black swan event....they did not get it and now they go back into their hibernation caves,” per Daniel Ives et al.

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