- Individual investors are growing bearish. The latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors hit its highest level of pessimism since November 2023—and showed a near doubling of pessimistic outlooks since Trump took office.
The Dow and S&P 500 index might both be showing gains for the year, but a growing number of individual investors are becoming increasingly wary about the months ahead.
The latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors found that 47.3% of the people it spoke with for the week ending Feb. 12 are now bearish about the stock market’s six-month outlook. That’s a nearly five-point jump from the week prior and the highest level of pessimism since November of 2023.
That unease has been growing steadily since Donald Trump took office. The week ending Jan. 22 saw bearish sentiment at a somewhat sedate 29.4%. Tariffs and their effect on the economy are a big part of the reason for the changing opinion. More than 57% of the people surveyed said they expect tariffs to slow growth and result in higher prices.
Bullish sentiment from the study is now below its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in seven weeks. It came in at 28.4% in the most recent survey.
Individual investors account for roughly 20% of trading volume, but some investors look at the AAII survey as a contrarian indicator, so this bearishness could bring in a new swath of investors. The AAII is a nonprofit organization with about 150,000 members, all of whom are invited to participate in the weekly survey. The number who choose to do so each week is not disclosed, however.
Year to date, the Dow is up nearly 5% and the S&P 500 is up 4.28%. The Nasdaq index is up 4% since Jan. 1.