Most NFL fans might be starting to tire of seeing Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but their pursuit of an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy on Sunday might bode well for your portfolio.
The stock market responds well when the Chiefs are in the big game, according to statistics shared by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Kansas City’s six previous Super Bowl appearances have coincided with an average yearly gain of 21% for the S&P 500, compared to the index’s average return of roughly 10%. As the Chiefs became the ninth team in NFL history to win back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024, the S&P jumped 26.3% and 25%, respectively.
On Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will try to avenge their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs two years ago. The S&P has averaged just a 5.5% return in the four years when Philly appeared in the big game.
Fans whose rooting preferences don’t align with these trends might scream that causation does not equal correlation, and they’d be right. With a massive disclaimer that these apparent coincidences are probably not the basis of sound investment advice, here are some fun facts for your Super Bowl party:
- The over/under: Betting on the “over/under,” or guessing whether both teams will combine for more or fewer points than a pre-specified amount, is a popular staple of sports gambling. This year, the line is set at 49 points. The market is happiest when the “over” hits, as the S&P has responded with an average gain of 16.3%.
- Cheer for offense: In a similar vein, the median combined final score of each Super Bowl has been 47 points. When both teams reach that threshold, the S&P has returned 17.8% on average. The index has gained just 6.6% on average, however, in years when the big game has been a low-scoring affair.
- Location, location, location: New Orleans is hosting the Super Bowl for an 11th time, tying Miami for the most of any city. The S&P has averaged a 12.1% return when the game is hosted in the Big Easy. Additionally, Sunday will mark the eighth Super Bowl contested at the famed Superdome; the index has an average return of 9.1% over the 20 previous occasions the game has been played under a dome or with the retractable roof closed, while the market has gained 13.8% on average in years featuring an open-air stadium or when the retractable roof has been open.
We’ll see how Sunday’s outcome—and the market’s performance in 2025—affects these numbers.
