Uber customers loathe the word “surge,” but investors tracking the company’s share price love nothing more. Now, after watching the company’s shares drop by 27% since it reached an all-time high in October, there are signs that an upswing is on the way, say analysts.
The ride-hailing and delivery app company was recently showcased as a top pick in the large-cap category in two notes looking ahead to 2025, one from Evercore ISI and one from Goldman Sachs, both of which essentially dismissed worries that autonomous vehicles and self-driving taxis would significantly disrupt Uber’s business model anytime soon.
(For reference, Tesla, unveiled its wild vision for “Cybercab” robotaxis on Oct. 10. Although it received a skeptical response from many, the event kicked off a sell-off of Uber.)
At Evercore, analyst Mark Mahaney addressed concerns around the company’s future performance. The market seems to see recent progress in the robotaxi category as a threat to Uber; but Mahaney, using all-caps, points out that Waymo is expected to expand to Austin and Atlanta next year “ON the Uber platform.”
His team predicts that Uber, which he calls “the ultimate ridesharing demand aggregator” will be “a net beneficiary of robotaxis.”
Mahaney also acknowledged concerns that Uber’s growth could be stalled once former president Donald Trump takes office next month and enacts new immigration policies. He writes, “the real issue we wonder about is if a reduction in (legal) immigration could impact driver supply for Uber. But we think this is a bit stretchy of a concern. More headline than reality.”
At Goldman Sachs, analyst Eric Sheridan and others saw Uber selected as the top pick among large-cap stocks at a time when they see “the most compelling risk/reward in companies that have lagged a robust market environment.”
Despite Uber being “mired in a series of short-term debates,” over the impact of pricing inflation and competition, and caught up in longer-term handwringing over what autonomous vehicles will do to the mobility and delivery categories, Sheridan wrote, his team sees Uber on a path to sustainable growth.
Goldman’s analysts also wrote that they believe both Uber and Lyft will benefit, through partnerships, as autonomous vehicles become more common, and that in time the company’s networks will come to accommodate cars controlled by human drivers and self-driving taxis. The mass adoption of driverless cars, they added, will play out “over at least several years.”
Uber shares are trading at around $60 as of this writing. Sheridan expects Uber’s stock to rise to $96 over the next 12 months, representing an increase of more than 55%, while Mahaney reiterated his previous price target of $120.
One month ago, Mahaney also told CNBC that he thinks Uber will be an “autonomous vehicle winner.”