Tesla’s post-election rally has caused the stock to soar past Wall Street’s price targets, adding a Donald Trump–size layer to the debate about how to value the notoriously volatile stock. In order to better inform their projections, analysts at Bank of America decided to put boots on the ground and visited the electric vehicle giant’s gigafactory in Austin. What they saw left them bullish about the company’s long-term prospects.
Tesla shares have jumped over 50% since Election Day, largely propelled by sentiment about CEO Elon Musk’s future influence, real or perceived, inside the incoming administration. Analysts have an unusual challenge in assessing how Musk’s relationship with the president-elect will impact Tesla. When BofA revealed it had increased its price target for the stock from $350 to $400, however, their reasoning didn’t mention politics.
“The trip gave us increased confidence that TSLA is well-positioned to grow in 2025+ with its core EV business (new vehicles will expand its [total addressable market]) and launch of its robotaxi offering,” the team, led by managing director John Murphy, wrote in a note Thursday, also citing longer-term investments in the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus.
Is Tesla stock worth the massive premium?
The updated target puts BofA on par with noted Tesla bulls like Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, who has consistently claimed that Tesla is the market’s most undervalued AI play. Even before Donald Trump’s decisive victory, Wall Street has long been divided about whether Tesla is a technology company with massive upside, a massively overvalued car company, or something in between.
According to S&P Capital IQ, analysts’ price targets range from as high as $421 to as low as $116, with the median estimate currently sitting at $245.
What’s clear is that shareholders are betting on massive upside as the stock approached the $400 threshold in premarket trading Monday. Tesla’s shares currently trade around 125 times forward earnings, according to Cap IQ estimates, far ahead of the single-digit multiples of most major automakers.
Even in the EV market, investors are paying a massive premium for Musk’s company. Chinese competitors Li Auto and Berkshire Hathaway–backed BYD both trade for roughly 20 times forward earnings, according to Cap IQ.
Tesla’s current eye-popping valuation might prove justified, however, if it can execute on Musk’s vision for autonomous driving. The company’s “full self-driving” software currently requires driver assistance and has been the subject of numerous lawsuits, as well as scrutiny from regulators, though these pressures are expected to ease under Trump.
Murphy and the BofA team said they were impressed by the technology on test rides, finding it much improved from prior versions.
“The Cybertruck and Model Y we rode in were equipped with versions 12.5 and 13.2 and drove seamlessly to a charging station several miles away despite abnormal road conditions,” the analysts wrote, “traveling on roads under construction and taking a tough left turn against traffic.”
Adoption has increased, they noted, since Tesla switched to a subscription-based model for the product after previously charging several thousand dollars upfront, one reason they see room for margins to improve.
The company said the software will soon require driver intervention only approximately once for every 10,000 miles. BofA said that indicates Tesla is nearing the capability to launch a robotaxi that could challenge Alphabet-owned Waymo. Ives has claimed a “cybercab” could propel the company to a $5 trillion valuation, compared with roughly $1.3 trillion now.
If that business successfully matures, BofA wrote, more resources could be freed up for Optimus, another area where Musk is exceptionally bullish. The analysts also suggested Tesla could boost the project with an equity raise, a move they believe would be supported by most investors.
