Syria’s Assad is under siege and is making overtures to US

Assad is ordering his army to fall back to defend Damascus, essentially ceding much of the country to insurgents, who seized the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in a lightning offensive over the past week. The rebels have entered Homs, a war monitor said, the last major city before Damascus.

As his remaining troops dig in, Syria’s longtime ruler is signaling his willingness to reach a deal that would allow him to hold on to the rump territory his army controls, or guarantee his safe passage into exile if needed, said the people. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss secret meetings.

One offer Assad made to the US via the United Arab Emirates is for Syria to cut all involvement with Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah, if Western powers wield influence to stem the fighting, the people said. 

Another initiative saw Assad dispatch a senior Christian leader to meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to relay what he sees as an existential threat to Syria’s Christian minority if Islamist rebels prevail, according to other people familiar with the plan. The intention was that Orban, a Trump ally, would convey this danger to the incoming US president, they said.

Trump, who finds himself in Paris, has responded to events on the ground. He took to X to say: “There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

It’s a dramatic turn of events for a dynasty that’s ruled Syria with an iron fist for half a century, crushed peaceful protests in 2011 and clung to power through years of civil war that spurred one of the worst humanitarian crises of modern times. Iranian and Russian military support was crucial to the survival of the 59-year-old president, but both are now distracted and stretched thin by other conflicts.

Read More: Syrian Rebels Eye Next Prize With Assad Lacking Russian Help

“Assad is in huge danger — it’s almost like in 2015 when the insurgents were at the gates of Damascus,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, referring to the year Russia intervened to save him.

Western nations were equally surprised, including the US, which had largely relinquished much of its influence in Syria to Iran, Russia and Turkey but has reacted to protect its interests, according to senior officials. 

Multiple Western officials said it was difficult to see Assad remaining in power.

The fall of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, could cut the highway linking Damascus and the country’s west and Mediterranean coast — the stronghold of the Assads and loyalists from their Alawite sect.

South of Damascus, rebels have seized parts of Daraa province bordering Jordan and in the capital residents of some districts took to the streets and tore down billboards of Assad. In one area people destroyed a statue of Assad’s father Hafez.

The president’s whereabouts are unclear, although he’s believed to be in Damascus or his hometown of Al-Qardaha, close to Russia’s Khmeimim airbase. It’s also possible he’s in the Iranian capital, Tehran, a person familiar with US policy said Saturday.

Assad’s office issued a statement condemning “rumors and fake news,” saying the president remains in the capital.

Assad has ordered the bulk of Syria’s remaining army — estimated at between 30,000 to 40,000 fighters — to rush to defend Damascus, according to two people familiar with the matter. An army spokesman said in a TV address on Saturday that it was strengthening its defenses in the countryside around the city.

Read More: Who’s Fighting and Why in the Revived Syrian War: QuickTake

The main rebel offensive has been led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, and various armed groups backed by Turkey. Other fighters have joined in, including army defectors who’d fought the regime and laid down arms in previous ceasefires, said the people. 

As rebels converge on Damascus from the north and south, Iran has drawn back its presence in Syria, leaving its military advisers concentrated around the capital, according to the people. Some Tehran-backed Iraqi militias have also returned to their country after the government ceded the eastern city of Deir Ezzor to US-backed Kurdish fighters, they said. 

Russian personnel now remain mainly around the capital and at the Khmeimim airbase and Tartous naval base, they said.

After a meeting with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Doha on Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is “trying to do everything not to allow terrorists to prevail.”

“We don’t want them to follow the fate of Iraqis, Libyans and other nations who were disturbed by the people desiring to keep their domination,” he said.

Trump said Saturday a withdrawal from Syria might “be the best thing that can happen” to Russia and that troops shouldn’t get involved in the fighting.

Read More: Trump Says Pullout From Syria Might Be ‘Best Thing’ for Russia

Back Channels

Russia has launched airstrikes around Homs to try and stall the rebel advance. But with signs the Kremlin’s help may not be enough, Assad is pressing on with back-channel negotiations.

A key goal would be retaining control of a portion of the country and addressing Turkey’s demands for a political transition and the potential return of millions of Syrian refugees, a major issue for Ankara. 

Assad is also proposing a new constitution and talks with the mostly exiled political opposition, according to the people familiar with the outreach.

It’s unclear if the efforts will bear fruit. Events on the battlefield have their own momentum, and even countries such as Turkey that have influence over the rebels may not be able to fully control events.

“I don’t think any of these outside powers have the leverage over their proxies to change the course of what is happening on the ground,” said Andreas Krieg, director of London-based MENA Analytica Ltd. “At this moment most bets are that the Assad regime may not be able to hold out.” 

Patriarch Visit

It was against that backdrop that Assad sent Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius Aphrem II to Hungary on Monday to relay his fears. Syria’s Christian community makes up about 10% of the country’s 24 million population. 

The plan to have Orban relate this message to Trump was described by an aide to the patriarch and another person with knowledge of the encounter.

People close to Trump couldn’t immediately comment, but said he had dispatched his in-law and Middle East adviser, Massad Boulos, to the UAE on Saturday to discuss the situation in the region.

Assad has pursued similar tactics before. HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani and other rebels have in recent days attempted to allay the fears of Christians and Syria’s other minorities that they envision a form of Islamic rule. 

Assad’s own Alawite community, which has stuck by him since 2011 and paid a heavy price to defend the regime, also appears to sense the end may be near. 

Nariman, an Alawite woman reached by phone in Damascus on Friday said she, her husband who’s in the security forces and their 23-year-old son were fleeing to their ancestral village near Jableh in western Syria. She said there were many families like hers.

Nobody is going to fight for Assad this time, she said, asking not to be identified by her last name for reasons of safety.