Consider this: Listed on Zillow is a stunning home on Anna Maria Island, on the coast of Manatee County in Florida. On Oct. 2, after Hurricane Helene made landfall, the price was slashed by $699,000 to $1.5 million. The description reads: “LARGE Price Reduction—SOLD AS IS—Seller attended to IMMEDIATELY After Hurricane Helene … Up to 36 inches drywall removed throughout entire house, dehumidifiers and fans started immediately and running 24 hours, hardwood floors and vapor barriers removed, all lower cabinets removed, all doors removed, all appliances and furniture removed, dried and sanitized (anti-fungal spray throughout entire house).”
The house is at extreme risk of flooding, and you’d need a separate policy to even get a federally backed loan, according to Zillow and First Street’s newly implemented climate risk assessments. The property literally has a 100% chance of flooding in the next 30 years, the length of America’s favorite mortgage.
So the question remains, would you buy it?
For more people the answer is—not a chance. Florida is hurricane prone. We’ve always known this, but it could be impacting home sales in its coastal metropolitan areas. In the four weeks ended Oct. 6, national pending home sales rose 2% from a year ago, marking the biggest increase in three years, according to Redfin; they’re actually rising in most urban areas other than those in Florida.
In West Palm Beach, pending home sales nose-dived almost 18%, the greatest decline experienced in any of the 50 most populous metropolitan areas. Then there’s Tampa, which saw pending home sales drop 15.5%. In Miami, pending home sales fell close to 15%.
“That’s due partly to Hurricane Helene, but coastal Florida’s housing market has been slowing over the last several months as insurance and HOA [homeowners association] costs surge due to the increasing prevalence of climate disasters,” the analysis stated. It continued: “Hurricane Helene—and Hurricane Milton, which hit just days later—may have a bigger impact on future home sales.”
The two problems are especially acute in the condominium world in Florida, where in some metros, supply is climbing and prices are falling for those very reasons. In July in Tampa, the number of condos for sale rose around 57% from a year earlier; prices, however, dropped 5%, a separate Redfin analysis found. The same was happening in Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, and Orlando. Homeowners association fees were increasing because of additional maintenance requirements for condos and rising insurance costs, which were also on the incline because of the expanding severity of weather-related events and multiple insurers fleeing the state.
Not to mention, a prior Redfin-commissioned survey found almost a third of residents between the ages of 18 and 34 said they were reconsidering where they want to live after seeing or hearing about damage caused by Hurricane Helene. “Americans are beginning to realize that nowhere is truly immune to the impacts of climate change, and we’re starting to see that impact where people want to live—even people who haven’t experienced a catastrophic weather event firsthand,” Redfin’s chief economist said at the time.
Housing is already so unaffordable for a lot of people. Can you imagine tacking on even more costly insurance premiums? Well that’s what people in Florida are dealing with, and in some cases, their homes are uninsured. Florida was affordable relative to California, for example, and it’s why people flooded the state during the pandemic, but they might be regretting their decision. Homes in Florida are much more pricey than they were less than five years ago, for one; that’s not even including insurance woes.
