In a series of posts on X, he said the shooting will guarantee that every Trump supporter will show up to vote in November. But the same can’t be said for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.

“Trump’s voters are energized, Biden’s voters are demoralized,” Luntz wrote. “In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm.”

That translates to a differential in voter turnout that’s worth at least 1%-2%, he estimated. While that seems small, it can be enough to tip the election, especially as a handful of closely divided swing states will determine the winner.

And because the shooting happened in the swing state of Pennsylvania, the participation impact will be most felt most significantly there, he added.

Even before the shooting, Biden’s election hopes had been dwindling after a disastrous debate performance last month. Some analysts have said his only plausible path to victory is if all the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin stay in his column.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign is pausing its messaging to supporters and pulling TV ads in the aftermath of the shooting. But the Republican National Convention will go on as planned starting this week, with Trump scheduled to appear.

When Democrats eventually fully re-engage their campaigning activities, Luntz sees an intensity gap there as well.

“It’s hard to imagine either Biden or any of the potential Democratic candidates delivering full-throated crowd-pleasing attacks on the former President now, taking away most of their ability to play the Trump card by labeling him a ‘threat to democracy’ when he just survived a real threat to democracy,” he said. “The 2024 presidential election is now Trump’s to lose.”

Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, also said the shooting means Trump is more likely to win the election.

In a video posted to X on Saturday, he said the image of Trump raising his fist in the air with blood streaked across his face while Secret Service agents carry him to safety will contrast dramatically with Biden, who looked old and frail during the debate.

But he also warned about the prospect of more violence, noting that the shooting came as the country was already deeply polarized.

“This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment, and I deeply worry that this presages much more political violence and social instability to come,” Bremmer said.