Fortune once called the historically low mortgage rates of the pandemic era a blessing and a curse. It’s true—there’s nothing better than a below-market rate, especially when there’s such a substantial difference, but it keeps you locked in, too; it’s hard to give up a, let’s say, 3% mortgage rate for a 7% one, unless you have no other choice.
It’s a phenomenon called the lock-in effect, and all year it has shown subtle signs of easing. Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost three decades because nobody was selling or buying homes. But it seems sellers are finally ready; the only thing is, buyers aren’t matching their energy. “Home sellers are returning to the market but finding buyers hesitating,” Zillow’s chief economist Skylar Olsen wrote in a monthly housing report published yesterday.
“Buyers aren’t matching sellers’ uptick in activity,” Olsen reiterated. But how do we know sellers are making a comeback? New listings rose roughly 8% in May and close to 13% from a year earlier. “The effects of ‘rate lock,’ owners holding on to their existing homes and low-rate mortgages, appear to be lessening over time, even as most outstanding mortgages have a rate well below what’s currently being quoted on the market,” she wrote.
Still, there were fewer sales in May than last year; they were down 6%, according to Zillow. Separately, according to a Redfin analysis published today, pending home sales are down 3.5% from a year earlier, which is the biggest decline in more than three months, and its homebuyer demand index, which considers requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents, is down 18% (the lowest since February).
Either way, Olsen said, the drop in sales volume helped with a sort of housing restock: The number of homes for sale rose 22% from a year earlier, when it was near an all-time low, and total inventory is at its smallest deficit in three years—which basically means it’s still a ways away from pre-pandemic levels, about 34% less, per Zillow.
Competition wasn’t as intense last month, so home price appreciation cooled. In April, home values rose 4.4% from a year earlier, but in May, they rose 3.9% (the monthly increase was lower, too). Slower home price appreciation is great for anyone who wants to buy a home, but home prices are still 45% higher than they were before the pandemic.
“Zillow’s Market Heat Index shows the nation is becoming a bit friendlier for buyers and is headed toward ‘neutral’ territory, but sellers still hold a slight advantage,” Olsen wrote. “Buffalo, Hartford, and San Jose are the top markets for sellers among the 50 largest metro areas. New Orleans, Miami, Jacksonville, and Memphis are all tilted toward buyers, giving those in the market better leverage in negotiations.” And nationally, almost a quarter of homes for sale slashed prices, which is the greatest share in the past six years.
All in all, it’s a much different, more costly landscape for people who want to buy homes. On a monthly basis, home prices are up in all 50 major metropolitan areas, and on an annual basis, they’re up in 46 metros, per Zillow. We already know home prices are considerably higher since the start of the pandemic; monthly mortgage payments are, too. The typical monthly mortgage payment is 11.3% higher than last year, and ready for this—115.3% since before the pandemic. So not only is the housing world more costly than last year, it’s a completely different entity from four years ago. It’s not hard to imagine why buyers are backing off.
Mortgage rates have come down a bit; daily rates are at 6.97% (their lowest in three months on the back of yesterday’s consumer price index report), and weekly rates are at 6.95%. Home price appreciation has slowed as well, according to Zillow. So maybe things will start to look up for would-be buyers?
“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” Redfin’s economic research lead Chen Zhao said in the analysis. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”
Still, if anything, the housing world is moving toward a balance of sorts, Zillow’s Olsen wrote.