On Wednesday, not only did the Federal Reserve hold off on cutting rates, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts were unlikely in March, too. The Dow subsequently nosedived 300 points (predictably enough). And as Term Sheet talks to VCs from its private markets perch, it’s clear that there’s lots of interest rate consternation here, too. 

What will it actually take from the Fed for the VC industry to say “we’re back”?

No one totally agrees, and the stage you’re operating at matters as much (if not more) than ever. For example, for early stage dealmakers, too much focus on interest rates could even be a “distraction” when you’re betting on a startup’s long-term potential and settling into an investment for the long haul, said Bison VC partner Ben Hemani. 

“Interest rates have dramatically shifted the total dollars focused on venture,” he said. “But it doesn’t have anything to do with the underlying innovation cycles…I don’t think it’s appropriate to say it doesn’t matter, but it’s the wrong point for an early stage venture capital fund to be focused on.”

However, if you’re a later stage investor, you’re dealing with a whole other can of worms. For G Squared managing partner Larry Aschebrook, a smoke signal from Powell isn’t going to cut it.

“You need multiple cuts that, to me, will signal that they’re comfortable with the direction we’re headed,” he said.

For Steven Rosenblatt, Oceans Ventures cofounder and general partner, we need to buckle up for a long-term change. The days of easy money are, quite simply, over.

“Interest rates aren’t coming close to where they were the last ten to 15 years,” he said. “Even when the Fed cuts, we’re all going to have to get used to a world where the money supply is much tighter…It’s going to be a much slower pace.”

Per previous Fed signals, rate cuts are still likely this year—and make no mistake, when that happens “it’ll be a boost to the equity markets, and positive sentiment will trickle through and increase confidence,” Union Square Advisors head of M&A Wayne Kawarabayashi told me. And it’s not like the interim isn’t providing a necessary correction, either—just a painful one.

“The last couple of years have weeded out companies that were weaker, and some good resetting did happen,” said Kamran Ansari, Headline venture partner. “Valuations are reset, the worst companies are gone, and the biggest risk factors in the venture business are now exogenous.”

Today is Groundhog Day. But it feels like we’ve been here a while, as high rates have held and the economic outlook remains dicey.

“I like to tell our LPs it’s like Groundhog Day—it’s hard to tell if we’re in the middle of this environment or if we’ve got six more weeks of winter,” Aschebrook told me. “In my opinion, we’re definitely past the midpoint.”

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
Twitter: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joe Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.

VENTURE DEALS

- Watershed, a San Francisco-based platform designed for companies to report and manage their emissions, raised $100 million in Series C funding. Greenoaks led the round and was joined by existing investors Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia Capital, Elad Gil, Emerson Collective, and others. 

- Metronome, a San Francisco-based billing platform for software companies, raised $43 million in Series B funding. NEA led the round and was joined by existing investors a16z and General Catalyst. 

- LightBeam, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based data protection platform, raised $17.8 million in Series A funding. Vertex Ventures US led the round and was joined by Dropbox Ventures and existing investors 8VC, Village Global, and angel investors.

- Wisedocs, a Toronto, Canada-based platform for indexing, reviewing, and summarizing medical records, raised $9.5 million in Series A funding. Information Venture Partners led the round and was joined by Thomson Reuters Ventures and ManchesterStory.

- Perelel, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based provider of vitamins designed for women’s different hormonal stages, raised $6 million in Series A funding from Unilever Ventures, Willow Growth, and Selva Ventures.

- Lumata Health, an Oklahoma City, Okla-based eye care management platform, raised $5.5 million in funding. Cortado Ventures led the round and was joined by Boyd Street Ventures and others.

- Coris, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based provider of automated underwriting and risk infrastructure software, raised $3.7 million in seed funding. Lux Capital and Exponent Founders Capital led the round and was joined by Y Combinator, Blank Ventures, and angel investors. 

- Energy Source, a São Paulo, Brazil-based provider of repair, reuse, and recycle services for lithium batteries, raised $1.2 million in funding from InMotion Ventures.

PRIVATE EQUITY

- Charlesbank Capital Partners invested $250 million into Rise Growth Partners, an Austin, Texas-based financial partners for registered investment advisors. 

- Artinia Group acquired a majority stake in Canvas, a Huntsville, Ala.-based provider of engineering, technical, and lifecycle management services to U.S. defense agencies. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Bansk Group acquired No Man’s Land Foods, an Enid, Okla.-based meat snacks brand. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Francisco Partners acquired The Weather Company, a Brookhaven, Ga.-based provider of weather technology, from IBM (NYS: IBM). Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Instinct Science, backed by Mainsail Partners, acquired VetMedux, a Tusla, Okla.-based provider of veterinary practice management. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- PAX Services Group, backed by New State Capital, acquired Cram Roofing, a San Antonio, Texas-based provider of re-roofing, maintenance, and emergency repair services. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Valsoft, backed by Coatue Management and Viking Global Investors, acquired Easy Employer, a Sydney, Australia-based timesheet and staff management platform. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

EXITS

- AHEAD, backed by Berkshire Partners, acquired Computer Design & Integration, a New York City-based provider of IT solutions, from One Equity Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Macquarie Group agreed to acquire Camin Cargo Control, a Pasadena, Texas-based provider of inspection, testing, and fuel treatment services to energy companies and trading houses, from Metalmark Capital. 

OTHER

- Fabric acquired GYANT, a San Francisco-based conversational AI assistant designed to automate busywork and provide care to health care patients. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

IPOS

- Amer Sports, a Helsinki, Finland-based manufacturer of sports and outdoor equipment, raised $1.4 billion in an offering of 105 million shares priced at $13. The company posted $4.3 billion in sales for the year ending September 30, 2023.

- XCHG, a Beijing, China-based supplier of electric vehicle chargers, filed to go public in the U.S. The company posted $38 million in revenue for the year ending September 30, 2023. Future EV Limited, Next EV Limited, Beijing Foreign Economic and Trade Development Guidance Fund, GGV Limited, Shell Ventures Company Limited, Zhen Partners Fund IV, and Wuxi Shenqi Leye Private Equity Funds Partnership.

FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS

- Giant Ventures, a London, U.K.-based venture capital firm, raised $250 million across two funds focused on sustainable technology companies. 

- Basis Set, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, raised $185 million for its third fund focused on AI companies.

- Alt Capital, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, raised $150 for its third fund focused on enterprise software startups, per The Information.

PEOPLE

- Arsenal Capital Partners, a New York City-based private equity firm, promoted Joelle Marquis to president. 

- Cinven, a London, U.K.-based private equity firm, promoted Bruno Schick, Jorge Quemada, and Supraj Rajagopalan to co-managing partners and Stuart McAlpine to chairman.

- Comvest Partners, a West Palm Beach, Fla.-based private equity firm, hired David Gibson as a managing director. Formerly, he was with Goldman Sachs.

- Vestar Capital Partners, a New York City-based private equity firm, promoted Wilson Orr and Ian Singleton to principals and Alyssa Stropoli to vice president.