Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva.
It’s hard for any business leader to make sense of economic indicators, these days, and no country better embodies this schizophrenic reality better than Japan.
As my colleague Nicholas Gordon points out today in an analysis of Japanese firms on the Fortune Global 500, Japan’s presence among the world’s biggest companies is in steep decline.
Back in 1995, when the Global 500 debuted, “the firm that beat everyone else on the list wasn’t Walmart or Exxon or GM…it was Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation.” Japan had just about as many companies on the list as the U.S., and its companies generated more revenue than any other major market.
Fast forward to today, and Japan Inc. is almost nowhere to be found.
Its presence in the Global 500 shrank from 149 to 41 companies, featuring few if any newcomers. In its stead, China has become the top dog, alongside the U.S. Both countries also regularly boast newcomers on the list, especially from the tech sector. In a throwback to the 1980s and its Walkmans, Japan’s greatest tech player is still Sony Corporation.
Yet at the same time, Japan’s stock market today is partying like it’s (early) 1989. In May, the Nikkei index hit its highest level in 33 years. And bizarrely, some of the same indicators that explain its fall on the Global 500 are reasons for Japan Inc.’s stock market rise: A weak yen and the fact that it isn’t China.
On the currency side, a weak yen means that Japanese company revenues have declined year-over-year in dollar terms (the basis of the Global 500). But it also means that their export forecast is rosier, as Japanese companies become more competitive in the global market. Japan’s GDP growth beat expectations this past quarter, coming in at a whopping 6% annualized rate for Q2.
On the geo-economic side, China’s rise also hurts and helps Japan. It hurts the country, as many of its companies are displaced on the Global 500 by emerging Chinese competitors. But as tensions between China and the rest of the world mount, Japan also emerges as the most viable “not-China” destination in Asia, whether in stock investment or trading.
For business leaders, making sense of these seemingly contradictory realities is part of navigating the world today. One man who doesn’t have a problem with that, though, is Warren Buffett. In June, he significantly raised his shareholding in Japan’s top trading houses, their decline on the Global 500 be damned.
More news below.
Peter Vanham
peter.vanham@fortune.com
@petervanham
TOP NEWS
Toppled Tower
Intel is canceling its $5.4 billion deal to buy Israel-based chip manufacturer Tower Semiconductor after it failed to win approval from antitrust regulators in China, where both firms have significant business. Intel had hoped the acquisition would bolster its chipmaking efforts after falling behind Samsung and TSMC. China may have wanted to scupper the deal to reciprocate U.S. pressure on the country’s own domestic semiconductor industry. The Associated Press
Consultant CEOs
A stint at a high-flying consulting firm isn’t enough to land someone as a CEO, due to a lack of real-world experience. Only three of the 47 former management consultants running Fortune 500 companies got a C-suite job straight from a consulting firm. But consulting experience still provides benefits, as proximity to executives at other large companies leads to “learning by osmosis,” says Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply (ranked No. 291 on the Fortune 500). Fortune
On Target
Target will shift how it presents heritage-month-themed merchandise, after it botched the response to a customer backlash to Pride apparel. For customers, Target stores are the “place that they go to get away from everyday life,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said. Sales last quarter dropped 5.4%, and the retailer lowered its forecast for full-year sales and profits. Still, investors may have expected worse: Shares were up 3% in Wednesday trading. The Wall Street Journal
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
CFO turnover at Fortune 1000 companies has spiked 30% since last year by Sheryl Estrada
Headspace’s CEO on what business is overlooking when it comes to mental health by Fortune Editors
Fancy offices will be the only ones to survive the hybrid work shift, says property tycoon by Eleanor Pringle
Commentary: LinkedIn is uniquely positioned to benefit from Twitter’s meltdown–and disgruntled X users are offering Microsoft a blueprint for social media supremacy by Vivek Wadhwa and Alex Salkever
The world’s biggest single investor in the stock market returned $143 billion in the first half of the year thanks to A.I. and tech by Chloe Taylor
This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.
This is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read insights from Fortune CEO Alan Murray. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.
