• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
FinanceEconomy

Inflation just increased for the first time in a year

By
Paul Wiseman
Paul Wiseman
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Paul Wiseman
Paul Wiseman
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 10, 2023, 8:56 AM ET
Jerome Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation in the United States rose in July after 12 straight months of declines, boosted by costlier housing. But excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation matched the smallest monthly increase in nearly two years.

Recommended Video

The inflation figure the government reported Thursday showed that consumer prices increased 3.2% from a year earlier. That was up from a 3% annual rise in June, which was the lowest rate in more than two years. The July inflation figure remained far below last year’s peak of 9.1%, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The Fed, economists and investors, though, pay particular attention to the core inflation figures for signs of where inflationary pressures might be headed. From June to July, core inflation remained a tame 0.2%.

Thursday’s price data will be among the key barometers the Fed will weigh in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates. In its drive to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high.

A jump in energy prices has rekindled some of the inflation pressures underlying the economy. Gasoline prices have surged nearly 30 cents over the past month to a national average of $3.83 a gallon, according to AAA.

Economists say that in the fight to conquer inflation, the easy progress has likely already been achieved. Gasoline prices, for example, though liable to bounce around from month to month, have already plunged from a peak national average of more than $5 a gallon, which was reached in June of last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Much of the inflationary surge that began in 2021 was caused by clogged supply chains: Ports, factories and freight yards were overwhelmed by the explosive economic rebound from the pandemic recession of 2020. The result was delays, parts shortages and higher prices. But supply-chain backlogs have eased in the past year, sharply reducing upward pressure on goods prices. Prices of long-lasting manufactured goods actually dipped in June.

Now, the Fed faces a daunting problem: persistent inflationary pressures in service businesses — restaurants, hotels, entertainment venues and the like — where wages represent a substantial share of costs. Worker shortages have led many of these services companies to sharply raise pay.

Last week, for example, the Labor Department reported that average hourly wages rose 4.4% in July from a year earlier, more than expected. To cover their higher labor costs, companies have typically raised their prices, thereby fueling inflation.

Another factor working against continued declines in year-over-year inflation rates is that prices soared in the first half of last year before slowing in the second half. So any price increase in July would have the effect of boosting the year-over-year inflation rate.

Still, economists caution against reading too much into one month of numbers. Many of them expect inflation to continue trending lower.

Used car prices, which had skyrocketed after the pandemic, have been edging down: They dropped 5.1% in July from a year earlier to $29,198, according to Edmunds.com. July of last year was near the peak of used-car price spikes, resulting from a scarcity of new vehicles caused by a global computer-chip shortage. Buyers who wanted new vehicles but couldn’t find them entered the used market, sending used prices sharply higher.

This year, though, used vehicle prices began to drop once automakers managed to acquire more chips and could produce more new vehicles. Many shoppers who were forced to buy used are now back in the new-vehicle market. Used-vehicle prices are expected to decline, at least modestly, through the year.

Despite chronic concerns about higher labor costs, one closely watched measure of wages and salaries — the Labor Department’s employment cost index — grew more slowly from April through June. Excluding government jobs, employee pay rose 1%, less than the 1.2% increase in the first three months of 2023. Compared with a year earlier, wages and salaries grew 4.6%, down from a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in the first quarter.

Rents, which had soared after the pandemic, are also cooling. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote this week that “year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024.″

Fed officials will have plenty of data to absorb before deciding whether to continue raising rates. Thursday’s report is the first of two CPI numbers the policymakers will see before their next meeting Sept. 19-20. In addition, their favored inflation gauge, called the personal income expenditures price index, comes out on Aug. 31. And the August jobs report will be released Sept. 1.

Many economists and market analysts think the Fed’s most recent rate hike in July will prove to be its last: Nearly 87% of traders expect no Fed hike next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

____

AP Auto Writer Tom Krisher in Detroit contributed to this report.

About the Authors
By Paul Wiseman
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By The Associated Press
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

T-minus 24 hours: On the eve of SpaceX IPO liftoff some Wall Street analysts say the stock is worth only half of Elon Musk’s price
EconomyMarkets
T-minus 24 hours: On the eve of SpaceX IPO liftoff some Wall Street analysts say the stock is worth only half of Elon Musk’s price
By Jim EdwardsJune 11, 2026
2 hours ago
Top CD rates today, June 11, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, June 11, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 11, 2026
3 hours ago
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on June 11, 2026
Personal FinanceSavings accounts
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on June 11, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 11, 2026
3 hours ago
bessent
CommentarySocial Security
Social Security and Medicare are heading toward insolvency. Congress has 6 years to act
By Steve H. Hanke and David M. WalkerJune 11, 2026
3 hours ago
Meet the Fortune Crypto 100: A ranking of the very best companies in blockchain
CryptoCryptocurrency
Meet the Fortune Crypto 100: A ranking of the very best companies in blockchain
By Jeff John RobertsJune 11, 2026
4 hours ago
Fortune Crypto Innovators
CryptoCryptocurrency
Meet the Fortune Crypto Innovators
By FortuneJune 11, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
Energy
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
18 hours ago
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
3 days ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 10, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 10, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 10, 2026
24 hours ago
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
Innovation
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
2 days ago
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America's beef supply
North America
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America's beef supply
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 10, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.