• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing

2

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'

3

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited

1

I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing

2

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'

3

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
FinanceEconomy

The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter, but economists say you shouldn’t freak out

Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 28, 2022, 12:06 PM ET

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, but experts say the decline was largely the result of a record trade deficit, arguing that underlying economic data remains strong.

Gross domestic product (GDP), which is typically used as a proxy for economic growth, fell 1.4% in the first three months of the year. That’s quite a dip compared with the 6.9% jump in GDP from the final quarter of 2021. 

In fact, it was the weakest quarter for GDP growth since the start of the pandemic in the spring of 2020. But economists say there’s more to the story. 

“The first quarter was not as bad as it looks at first glance,” Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, told Fortune. “Despite a decline in real GDP, it wasn’t a recessionary quarter: GDP fell and was much weaker than expected, but consumer spending growth was solid and fixed investment growth robust.”

The largest drag on the economy in the first quarter was the trade deficit, which reduced GDP by over three percentage points. A 2.7% reduction in government spending from a year ago also contributed to the weaker than expected GDP number. 

But consumer spending, a main driver of the economy, rose at a 2.7% annual rate through March, accelerating from the end of last year.

“The Omicron variant temporarily stymied economic growth, especially in January, but underlying details show consumer spending was strong,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, told Fortune. “Momentum in April suggests that the current and upcoming quarters of growth is consistent with our forecast of roughly 3% growth for the year.”

Roach noted that the latest GDP report showed nonresidential investment and capital expenditures—key indicators that show businesses are investing in their future growth—were on the rise as well, which he says should provide momentum for the rest of the year.

Businesses’ fixed investment, an economic measure that represents the spending by businesses to increase production capacity, also jumped at an annual rate of 9.2%. That should lead GDP to recover over the coming months as businesses’ production matches strong demand.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimate GDP will jump 2.6% in the final quarter of this year, matching 2019’s annual growth figures.

“Don’t freak out about the GDP report, the underlying inertial components were strong,” Jason Furman, an economics professor at Harvard and former economic adviser to President Barack Obama, said in response to the report. “Yes, there is a lot to be cautious and hedged about in the economy right now. But this report told me the trade deficit widened a lot in Q1, which is not one of the many variables I focus on in assessing worries about the economy.”

Furman noted that during his time at the Council of Economic Advisers, he focused on a key statistic called “private final domestic demand,” which measures the sum of final consumption and investment in the economy. That metric actually rose 3.7% in the first quarter.

“Considering that the core components of real GDP grew solidly in the first quarter, and payroll employment grew a robust 562,000 per month, the U.S. economy was not in a recession in the first quarter of 2022,” Comerica Bank’s Adams said.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

About the Author
Will Daniel
By Will Daniel
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

A rare ‘super’ El Niño is looking more likely. Here’s what to expect
EnvironmentWeather and forecasting
A rare ‘super’ El Niño is looking more likely. Here’s what to expect
By Brian K. Sullivan and BloombergMay 31, 2026
2 hours ago
Data centers could help determine who wins the next war, and a shortage of compute would be ‘catastrophic,’ retired general says
AIMilitary
Data centers could help determine who wins the next war, and a shortage of compute would be ‘catastrophic,’ retired general says
By Jason MaMay 31, 2026
3 hours ago
Financial markets are losing the security blanket that’s bailed them out of trouble so many times, top economist warns 
EconomyMarkets
Financial markets are losing the security blanket that’s bailed them out of trouble so many times, top economist warns 
By Jason MaMay 31, 2026
5 hours ago
AI will make the ‘tech bro’ class even richer, Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz says, just as it can take your job
AIJobs
AI will make the ‘tech bro’ class even richer, Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz says, just as it can take your job
By Catherina GioinoMay 31, 2026
6 hours ago
peter thiel
AIskills
Forget the STEM safety net. Peter Thiel warns AI is a bigger threat to technical roles than to creative thinkers
By Jake AngeloMay 31, 2026
6 hours ago
Hegseth seeks to convince allies U.S. should stay quiet on Taiwan
AsiaChina
Hegseth seeks to convince allies U.S. should stay quiet on Taiwan
By Josh Xiao, Philip J. Heijmans and BloombergMay 31, 2026
7 hours ago

Most Popular

I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing
Personal Finance
I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing
By Nick LichtenbergMay 31, 2026
12 hours ago
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
Law
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
By Collin Binkley and The Associated PressMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
Politics
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
By Jack Wittels and BloombergMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
Innovation
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
By Jason MaMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
Ex–Google CEO Eric Schmidt warns U.S. tech workers: Competing with China’s grueling 12-hour workdays means sacrificing work-life balance
Future of Work
Ex–Google CEO Eric Schmidt warns U.S. tech workers: Competing with China’s grueling 12-hour workdays means sacrificing work-life balance
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
Meet the Black women on Fortune's Most Powerful Women list shaping business leadership
MPW
Meet the Black women on Fortune's Most Powerful Women list shaping business leadership
By Cheyann HarrisMay 29, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.