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Everyone knows the fable of the tortoise and the hare. The former, by plodding forward at a disciplined, methodical pace, triumphs over the latter, who dillies and dallies, squandering natural advantages.
The fable’s moral—”slow and steady wins the race”—has been the underlying premise of many media narratives about how Asian economies, especially China, have managed to contain the coronavirus and return to growth more rapidly than the United States.
But don’t count the rascally rabbit out just yet.
After a year of chaos, confusion, and downright incompetence, the U.S. is now vaccinating its citizens with unexpected speed. As of Wednesday, more than 150 million doses had been administered in the U.S., according to the Center for Disease Control, leaving 54 million Americans, or about 16% of the population, fully immunized, and another 43 million partly immunized and awaiting their second dose.
President Joe Biden last week doubled to 200 million his goal for how many vaccines would be administered in the first 100 days of his administration. If the U.S. can maintain its current pace of delivering about 2.5 million doses a day, it will reach Biden’s target a week early.
Many experts now predict that America will reach the 70% “herd immunity” vaccination threshold—at which point so many people have developed antibodies protecting them from the virus that it can no longer spread—by mid-summer.
But vaccines aren’t the only way to attain immunity. The CDC estimates that more than a quarter of the U.S. population has been infected by the coronavirus and recovered. Their numbers, when combined with Americans getting the vaccine, could put herd immunity within reach for the U.S. as early as June.
In China, by contrast, herd immunity remains a distant prospect. China plans to vaccinate 40% of its 1.4 billion people by the end of June, according to Zhong Nanshan, one of the country’s top health officials. That would require inoculating 560 million people.
For now, though, China’s vaccine rollout lags far behind campaigns in the U.S. or most European countries. China is administering doses at a rate about 5 million a day—twice the absolute number of daily injections delivered in the U.S but a far slower relative pace given China’s larger population. China has administered about 117 million doses of vaccine, enough for only 4.2% of the population; there’s no clear data on what percentage of the population has been fully vaccinated. To reach the 70% herd immunity threshold, the number of Chinese with COVID antibodies would have to exceed 900 million.
China faces a host of obstacles to reaching herd immunity. One is that the country’s success in containing the virus means that, according to official figures, only about 85,000 people have acquired antibodies by contracting the disease and recovering.
A second challenge is the lower effectiveness of Chinese vaccines. While vaccines developed by U.S.-based Moderna and Germany’s BioNTech have demonstrated 95% effectiveness in preventing infection, the effectiveness of vaccines developed by Chinese drug makers ranges from 50% to 79%, according to the companies. Sixth Tone, citing Hong Kong University epidemiologist Benjamin Cowling, estimates that even if China used the strongest of its vaccines, 76% of its population—or more than 1 billion people—would need to be inoculated to reach herd immunity.
A third, and somewhat paradoxical hurdle is that, precisely because China all but eliminated the virus within its own borders, its citizens feel little urgency to be vaccinated. Even without a jab, they can go to the office, meet customers and clients, visit friends and family, dine in restaurants, take public transportation, travel domestically, and even go to concerts without fear of infection.
A December survey by market research firm Ipsos and the World Economic Forum found that, of 15 countries surveyed, China’s citizens were the most open to the idea of being vaccinated, with 80% of respondents declaring their willingness to take a shot. But more recent surveys in Shanghai and the coastal province of Zhejiang found that only about half of respondents were willing to receive injections. Notably, vaccine skepticism was higher among health professionals and highly educated respondents.
A final complication is supply. China’s manufacturers are still ramping up production. And with virtually no COVID cases at home, China has prioritized shipping its vaccines to countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines, where the virus rages.
As Grady noted recently, George Gao, the director of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has publicly acknowledged that China is unlikely to reach herd immunity until next summer, months after Beijing plans to host the 2022 Winter Olympics. For the moment, China’s borders remain closed to most foreign travelers; those who are allowed in must endure two-week hotel quarantines on arrival.
If it hopes to host international visitors for the winter games, the tortoise will have to pick up its pace.
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More Eastworld news below.
Clay Chandler
clay.chandler@fortune.com
This edition of Eastworld was curated and produced by Grady McGregor. Reach him at grady.mcgregor@fortune.com.
Eastworld news
'Politicized'
The World Health Organization downplayed its own findings from the report it published this week on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report said that the virus was most likely spread to humans from bats via an intermediary animal. But WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the U.S., and a dozen other countries said China withheld data during the month-long investigation in China. China, meanwhile, said the report should not be “politicized.” Fortune
Convicted
Business tycoon Jimmy Lai, activist Martin Lee, and seven other prominent pro-democracy activists were convicted for unlawful assembly in Hong Kong on Thursday for taking part in an unauthorized demonstration during the city’s 2019 protest movement. The activists now await sentencing on charges that carry a maximum penalty of five years imprisonment. Lai’s lawyer had argued that police should not have been given the power to ban lawful assembly. As many as 1.7 million residents reportedly took part in the protest in question. CNN
Emitted
At a United Nations meeting on Wednesday, India’s energy minister R.K. Singh blasted world climate leaders like the U.S., EU, and China for committing to insufficient climate targets and said places like the world's major economies should aim for negative emission goals instead of net-zero. Unlike the U.S., China, and other governments, India has not committed to its own net-zero carbon pledge but says that it will reduce pollution by 33% in relation to its GDP by 2030. Financial Times
Lobbied
The Swedish telecoms company Ericsson AB is now the global leader in selling wireless equipment, thanks in large part to the U.S.-led campaign against Chinese telco giant Huawei. But for the last few months, Ericsson has lobbied on behalf of its Chinese rival in Sweden, saying that banning Huawei’s 5G network will only threaten retaliatory measures from Beijing. Ericsson’s biggest shareholder, Sweden’s Wallenberg family, may also have something to lose if tensions continue to rise. Chinese state-media outlets have raised the prospect of tit-for-tat action against Ericsson and other Wallenberg-owned companies in China in response to the Huawei sanctions. Wall Street Journal
Coronavirus by country
Myanmar’s COVID-19 response and health systems are in tatters following the military’s Feb. 1 coup. A strike among health workers means that COVID-19 testing, treatment, and vaccination have become all but impossible amid the military’s bloody crackdown. Myanmar does have 3.5 million doses of British vaccine maker Astrazeneca's COVID-19 vaccine on hand, but Dr. Htar Htar Lin, the former head of the country’s vaccine drive, has gone into hiding after the military regime accused her of corruption. “Since the coup, the military has become more dangerous than the disease,” one Myanmar resident said. Frontier Magazine
Markets and movers
Sinopharm, Sinovac – WHO officials endorsed vaccines from Chinese vaccine makers Sinopharm and Sinovac, saying that their vaccines were effective against COVID-19 according to data the agency has seen. Sinovac and Sinopharm are currently applying for the WHO’s approval but neither maker has publicly released data phase III clinical trial data. Reuters
BioNTech/Fosun Pharma – Hong Kong announced Thursday that it will resume inoculations on Monday of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by German vaccine maker BioNTech and distributed locally by China's Fosun Pharma. Authorities suspended the jabs for nearly two weeks after BioNTech and Fosun reported defective packaging in a batch of doses shipped to the city. Bloomberg
Geely – The Chinese car company is considering an initial public offering for Volvo Cars, a Swedish car maker owned by Geely. Volvo Cars could be valued at $20 billion in a potential debut, sources tell Bloomberg.
Hitachi – On Wednesday, the Japanese electrical equipment firm announced that it will acquire U.S. software developer GlobalLogic for $9.6 billion. Hitachi is overhauling its business to concentrate on the IT sector and believes that GlobalLogic’s software will help smooth the transition. Nikkei Asian Review
Xiaomi – The Chinese smartphone maker unveiled a $10 billion plan Tuesday to manufacture clean energy cars in the next ten years. Xiaomi has close ties to Chinese automaker Xpeng, which may serve as a potential partner in Xiaomi’s efforts to make its first cars. Nikkei Asian Review
HKEX – The Hong Kong stock exchange halted trading on over 50 company stocks on Thursday after the firms failed to submit earnings reports on time. Such trading halts are fairly routine on the day earnings results are due, but the 50 companies suspended Thursday is significantly higher than the nine firms suspended in 2020 and the 25 firms suspended in 2019. Bloomberg
Boeing – On Wednesday, the American airplane maker told the U.S. government to separate trade talks and discussions of human rights in future negotiations with Beijing. Boeing sells a quarter of its airplanes to China, but the U.S.-China trade war has threatened its hold on China’s market. Reuters
Final figure
$100 billion
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is investing $100 billion in research and development efforts in the next three years. TSMC says its manufacturing facilities are currently running at capacity as it attempts to address the global chip shortage and the investment will help it build out more manufacturing plants to meet the uptick in global demand for semiconductors. Bloomberg
