• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
solar power

Solar power is “the new king of electricity”

Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 13, 2020, 5:00 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Ray Kurzweil was right—again.

The International Energy Agency today declared solar photovoltaic power “the new king of electricity,” stating in its annual World Energy Outlook that “solar PV is consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen.”

Kurzweil told us more than a decade ago this would happen. Hardly anyone believed him. Kurzweil is the inventor and futurist best known for his writings on the singularity, the moment when machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence and it becomes possible to upload our brains. “There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine,” he has written.

Many of his predictions are based on applying Moore’s Law to technologies other than computer chips and following that idea where it goes. Back when photovoltaic tech was impossibly inefficient, he observed that it was doubling in performance every two years or so; he extrapolated from there.

Result: Depending on which year you take as the baseline, he was forecasting over a decade ago that global photovoltaic capacity in 2019 would be 448 gigawatts or that in 2020 it would be 1,120 gigawatts. Reality is right in between. The IEA’s estimate for 2019 (the actual number still isn’t available) is 633 gigawatts; the forecast for 2020 is 770 gigawatts.

You could argue that Kurzweil’s forecast range was very wide, but remember that he was making these calls when global photovoltaic capacity was only seven to 15 gigawatts. Remember also that he didn’t claim to predict the future of oil, gas, or coal prices or the future of energy demand as the world economy expanded, all of which would affect demand for solar technology.

Making outlandish predictions that tend to come true is largely the story of Kurzweil’s life, as Fortune noted four years ago. Today’s news is a reminder of what writer David Z. Morris advised: Ignore him at your peril.

About the Author
Geoff Colvin
By Geoff ColvinSenior Editor-at-Large
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Geoff Colvin is a senior editor-at-large at Fortune, covering leadership, globalization, wealth creation, the infotech revolution, and related issues.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

rh
AIReid Hoffman
Reid Hoffman says SpaceX is ‘not an AI company’ and xAI is a ‘complete train wreck’—and there’s room for both OpenAI and Anthropic
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
1 hour ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
SuccessCareer Advice
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
SuccessBrainstorm Tech
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
By Rachel VentrescaJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
21 hours ago
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
Investing
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
By Nick LichtenbergJune 22, 2026
2 days ago
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
3 days ago
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
Real Estate
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
By Sydney LakeJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.