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Good morning. It’s the first trading day of August, which historically has been a month of low volumes and high volatility. Throw in a pandemic and a presidential campaign, and it should be an eventful month.
Let’s check in on the action.
Markets update
Asia
- The major Asia indexes are mixed in afternoon trade with Japan’s Nikkei up 2%.
- Tick tock. The Trump Administration is giving ByteDance 45 days to negotiate a sale to Microsoft, Reuters reported on Sunday. Microsoft confirmed in a blog post it’s looking to buy TikTok’s operations in the U.S., Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
- HSBC shares were down 4.3% in London on Monday after the Asia-dependent bank raised its loan loss estimates to $13 billion and posted a big hit to profits.
Europe
- The European bourses were mostly higher with Germany’s DAX up 1.3% an hour into trading.
- It’s the biggest health-care deal of the year: Siemens Healthineers has agreed to buy U.S. cancer treatment specialists Varian Medical Systems in a deal that values Varian at $16.4 billion. The move gives Siemens Healthineers a foothold in the cancer market and would likely propel the company into the Dax.
- Heineken was down 1.7% in early trade after the Dutch brewer posted a 53% decline in first-half profits. The company is banking on low- and zero-alcohol beer and e-commerce to stimulate growth.
U.S.
- Nasdaq futures point to a positive open for the tech-heavy index as it looks to extend its impressive July run. S&P and Dow futures are in the red.
- What’s on the calendar this week? On Friday, we get the big jobs report. Economists doubt it will capture the full picture of a labor market that’s shown worrying declines in late July. The other big news will be whether the Republicans and Dems can reach an agreement on a new round of stimulus. They’re still far apart.
- Disney reports tomorrow, giving investors an important indicator into the relative health of the leisure and entertainment sectors.
Elsewhere
- After an incredible month, gold is up again.
- As is the dollar.
- Crude is off slightly.
***
What’s hot, what’s not
It’s the first trading session of August, which means we’re looking back at the big winners and losers of July. And, yes, gold tops the list.
If you’re long gold and short the dollar, you’re no doubt smiling right now. Seriously, if you made this trade, chapeau! I’m impressed. Usually, gold and the dollar trade in tandem during times of crisis. They are the ultimate safe-haven assets in highly uncertain times. Or were, at least.
The fact the dollar is in such decline speaks poorly to America’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The dollar just had its worst month since 2010. As the chart shows, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a half-dozen other currencies, fell by 4.3% in July.
There are some who argue the dollar was overvalued, and that it was bound to come down some. But few foresaw such a swift drop. After hitting an all-time high in March, the greenback has lost 10% of its value.
Now, that may sound like good news for America’s multinationals, but it’s really the global markets’ way of saying the U.S. is bombing in its efforts to manage this crisis. The impasse in Washington over a coherent stimulus plan is also hurting the currency. All that is giving investors the jitters.
Where are investors turning, instead? To tech and Chinese equities, namely. The Shanghai Composite has had some crazy swings in recent weeks, but it was up nearly 10% last month, fueled by an impressive final week of the month. If history is any judge, that exchange will continue to be volatile.
The safest of safe havens continues to be Big Tech. The Fab 5—Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet—thrived under lockdown, hitting a series of all-time highs.
It’s probably a good thing July was such a strong month for the major exchanges. Looking forward, the S&P 500 in August and September has, since 1985, generated its weakest performances of the year. That’s according to Goldman Sachs.
History could repeat itself as the presidential election campaign goes into overdrive in the coming days. Politics and the coronavirus crisis will likely be big drags on the markets going forward, market experts say.
Good luck with your portfolios in the weeks ahead.
***
Have a nice day, everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
As always, you can write to bullsheet@fortune.com or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
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