• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

He worked 100-hour weeks to save a nearly bankrupt boat company. At 83, he’s just turned down $400 million for it—and gave it all to charity instead

2

Costco's $14 million email settlement: Who qualifies for an up-to $500 payment and how to claim before the Aug. 24 deadline

3

Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax was designed to hit the wealthy, but it’s sending most New Yorkers to their estate lawyers

1

He worked 100-hour weeks to save a nearly bankrupt boat company. At 83, he’s just turned down $400 million for it—and gave it all to charity instead

2

Costco's $14 million email settlement: Who qualifies for an up-to $500 payment and how to claim before the Aug. 24 deadline

3

Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax was designed to hit the wealthy, but it’s sending most New Yorkers to their estate lawyers
MagazineFinance

Three Stocks to Own in Risky Times

By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 26, 2018, 8:00 AM ET
Illustration by Nazario Graziano; All photos via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FOR A BUY-AND-HOLD INVESTOR, taking stock of the geopolitical landscape can feel like a disorienting, daily roulette-wheel spin to determine which news story will make you most jittery. What’ll it be: a nuclear face-off with Iran? High-stakes talks with North Korea? Trade spats between the U.S. and its allies? The crumbling of the European Union? Oh, and don’t forget the ongoing investigation into Russian influence on the 2016 election. (Excuse us as we mute CNBC and pop another Xanax.)

It’s not your imagination: By some indicators, the world currently faces measurably more risks than usual. This year, two Federal Reserve economists unveiled a Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index that tracks occurrences in news reports of “words related to geopolitical tensions.” When international conflict, terrorist threats, or nuclear posturing ramps up, the index spikes. Since 1985, the average daily GPR reading was 81; this May it hit 147—more than 80% above the mean. Investment giant BlackRock, meanwhile, recently launched its own statistical gauge for political risk. It stands nearly one standard deviation higher than its historical average—high enough, BlackRock says, for investors to consider portfolio adjustments.

Here’s the good news: Conflict may be tough on your nerves, but it’s seldom the cause of tough times for stocks. Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, recently looked at military actions going back to 1983. He found that even when major attacks occur—think the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, or the 2011 toppling of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya—stock markets typically recover within five days. Still, geopolitics become a financial threat when they create stressful long-term conditions that hurt companies’ profits and discourage investment. That’s why, of all the items on the global-strife laundry list, analysts worry most about trade wars.

Most economists agree that restrictive tariffs hurt growth—and could do more damage today, when more companies rely on global sales and supply chains to sustain profits. The restrictions often backfire on the industries they’re designed to protect: In the 1980s, for example, the U.S. placed tariffs on steel from Japan, but 10 of the 11 largest U.S. steel producers saw negative equity returns from 1982 to 1986, according to the Brookings Institution. The current environment has an added wrinkle, notes Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi: Countries have considered microtargeting sanctions at specific companies or subsectors. It isn’t hard to envision, for example, China retaliating against Trump administration tariffs by punishing Boeing, which got 13% of its sales from China last year.

 

 

WHAT’S THE BEST WAY TO ADJUST to such uncertainty? Historically, the industries that have held up best amid geopolitical risk in general and trade tensions in particular are defense, oil, and consumer staples. Defense stocks look pricey these days, however. Over the past five years, they have risen 20% annually, compared with 11% for the S&P 500, as investors sought to cash in on a growing Pentagon budget. “All the good news is priced in,” says Chris Higgins of Morningstar.

The oil patch looks more promising. Times of turmoil tend to boost crude prices, to the benefit of big U.S. producers—of which the best positioned right now is Chevron (CVX). The company endured criticism for recent investments in new production, particularly in Australia, but many of those wells are coming online just in time to capitalize on rising prices. Then there’s Texas’s Permian Basin, whose stunning energy boom Jeffrey Ball depicted in our Fortune 500 issue (June 1). Chevron’s production there has risen from less than 150,000 barrels a day in early 2017 to about 250,000 today, en route to a planned 650,000 by 2022. Those capabilities, along with an enviable balance sheet—Chevron generated $20.5 billion in cash flow from operations in 2017—make the stock about 25% undervalued today, assuming an oil price of $65 a barrel, says Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), a huge operator of pipelines and terminals, doesn’t benefit immediately from rising oil prices. But as the surge encourages producers to dig more wells and invest in new projects, they’ll sign more of the transportation contracts that account for most of Kinder’s revenue. The company’s $37 billion debt load, a by-product of an infrastructure building spree, has scared some investors away: It trades at a 35% discount to peers in pipeline and “midstream” energy based on estimated 2019 distributable cash flow, says Raymond James’s Darren Horowitz. But its stable income and dominant position in energy infrastructure make it an attractive long-term play.

No amount of global angst will make you stop purchasing food or toilet paper, and analysts expect consumer-staples stocks to benefit if trade tensions hurt other industries. Investors haven’t been impressed so far by aggressive cost cutting at Kraft Heinz (KHC); shares in the packaged-foods giant have fallen more than 35% since rival Unilever rejected its takeover bid in February 2017. But the company now boasts the best profit margins among its food peers, says Edward Jones analyst Brittany Weissman. If Kraft Heinz can start growing revenue again, “the stock will be rewarded for that,” Weissman says. And even if not, its healthy margins could make it look like a haven when investors scurry for safety.

A version of this article appears in the July 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Where To Hide From The Headlines.”

About the Author
By Ryan Derousseau
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest from the Magazine

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest from the Magazine

Inside Ikea’s big bet on humans in the age of AI
MagazineIKEA
Inside Ikea’s big bet on humans in the age of AI
By Claire ZillmanJuly 30, 2026
22 hours ago
The IPO hype cycle returns
MagazineFortune Archives
The IPO hype cycle returns
By Sam ForsdickJuly 28, 2026
3 days ago
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
MagazineAmazon
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
By Kristin StollerJuly 28, 2026
3 days ago
Can a global car company survive today’s complicated world? Nissan hopes to find out
MagazineNissan
Can a global car company survive today’s complicated world? Nissan hopes to find out
By Andrew StaplesJuly 28, 2026
3 days ago
How Wistron’s early Nvidia bet made it an unsung winner of the AI boom—and one of the biggest risers on this year’s Global 500
MagazineGlobal 500
How Wistron’s early Nvidia bet made it an unsung winner of the AI boom—and one of the biggest risers on this year’s Global 500
By Nicholas GordonJuly 28, 2026
3 days ago
Europe’s employers face a new challenge—keeping workers safe during heatwaves
MagazineEnvironment
Europe’s employers face a new challenge—keeping workers safe during heatwaves
By Oliver BalchJuly 27, 2026
4 days ago

Most Popular

He worked 100-hour weeks to save a nearly bankrupt boat company. At 83, he’s just turned down $400 million for it—and gave it all to charity instead
Success
He worked 100-hour weeks to save a nearly bankrupt boat company. At 83, he’s just turned down $400 million for it—and gave it all to charity instead
By Preston ForeJuly 29, 2026
2 days ago
Costco's $14 million email settlement: Who qualifies for an up-to $500 payment and how to claim before the Aug. 24 deadline
Retail
Costco's $14 million email settlement: Who qualifies for an up-to $500 payment and how to claim before the Aug. 24 deadline
By Sydney LakeJuly 29, 2026
2 days ago
Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax was designed to hit the wealthy, but it’s sending most New Yorkers to their estate lawyers
Real Estate
Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax was designed to hit the wealthy, but it’s sending most New Yorkers to their estate lawyers
By Catherina GioinoJuly 30, 2026
22 hours ago
'Am I paying for the vibes?' Gen Z says it hates capitalism, but their spending patterns show they just don't like being ripped off
Retail
'Am I paying for the vibes?' Gen Z says it hates capitalism, but their spending patterns show they just don't like being ripped off
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 30, 2026
18 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 30, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 30, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 30, 2026
18 hours ago
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
6 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.