Connor English of Edjsports.com has a formula that’s successfully picked the winners of the last four Derbies. However, in his post for this year’s predictions, English notes that it’s not a perfect science. It’s only picked the right second-place winners twice and has never accurately predicted the third-place finisher, according to the Courier-Journal.

Those last four Kentucky Derby winners were also betting-favorites. In fact, some on English’s picks to place and show came in 8th, 10th, 16th and even 19th.

“To say that this model is foolproof would be naïve since it is borderline terrible at predicting anything but 1st place finishes,” English writes.

But, this year, English has picked Good Magic to win the Kentucky Derby. Justify is predicted to place and Mendelssohn to show.

Good Magic has odds at 9-1. Justify is the current favorite at 3-1 and Mendelssohn stands at 6-1.

English’s formula accounts for “the number of prep races a horse ran, post number, expert picks, as well as the ratings given to horses by various outlets.”