• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

3

Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

3

Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
Finance

Is the economy partying like it’s 1999?

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
and
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
and
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 5, 2014, 2:15 PM ET
Prince Live At The Forum
Prince performs live at the Fabulous Forum on February 19, 1985 in Inglewood, California. (Photograph by Michael Ochs Archives—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The economy is rockin’ again! Sort of.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that job growth surged in November. In the past 11 months, U.S. employers have added nearly 2.7 million jobs. That’s the fastest job growth we’ve had since 1999, a year in which the economy was truly robust, but also inching closer to a plunge.

So, is the economy as good as it was in 1999? Not quite.

Yes, employers have added more jobs in 2014 than what they added for the entirety of 2005—the next biggest year for job growth—but we are still a long way away from matching 1999. Back then, the economy was adding 262,000 jobs a month. Today’s average is 240,000. Put another way, employers would still need to add another 527,000 jobs in 2014 to match 1999’s record, and we only have one month to do it (not factoring revisions). So, we’re likely to fall short.

Here are a few other ways to compare today’s economy to what we had in 1999.

Labor Force Participation

US Labor Force Participation Rate Chart

US Labor Force Participation Rate data by YCharts

At the end of 1999, the portion of the population that was working was the highest it had been at any time in the nation’s history. Much of this had to do with demographic shifts: women had been steadily joining the workforce for a couple decades at that point. Meanwhile, not even the oldest baby boomers had reached retirement age.

Fast-forward to 2014, and the trend of more women joining the labor force looks to have come to a close. At the same time, the aging of the United States’ populace means that there are fewer working-age people as a percentage of the overall population. There’s also evidence that a sinking labor participation rate is a sign that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic. The fact that labor force participation even for working-age Americans (25 to 54 years old) is at 80.8%, down from a high of 84.6% in 1999, suggests that the decline isn’t only a product of an aging society.

The Stock Market

price-earning-1999-2014

Stocks are up 12% this year. That’s pretty similar to 1999, when the market in the first 11 months was up 16%. But the big difference is how confident investors seemed back then that the market and, by extension, the economy would keep rising. How much more confident? The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is a pretty good measure of investor enthusiasm. Back in 1999, it was 59% higher than it is today.

GDP Growth

2014 vs 1999 gdp

In 1999, U.S. GDP growth was steadily accelerating. This year, economic grow is up, but it has been choppy. (And, yes, we had bad weather in 1999. The Blizzard of 1999. Look it up.) For the first nine months of 2014, GDP growth averaged 2.1%. And it was lower in the third quarter than it was in the second. Back in 1999, the nine-month average GDP growth was a significantly higher 3.8%. And the growth in 1999 was a continuation of a trend that the economy had been experiencing for the past few years. GDP growth averaged 4.5% in both 1998 and 1997. These days, five years since the recession, we are only now pulling out of our growth slump. Last year, GDP growth was a meager 2.2%. That makes this year’s gains off of that lower hurdle less impressive.

Wages

Perhaps the single biggest difference between the economy of today and that of the late 1990s comes down to wage growth. While wages grew 0.4% over last month, double what economists were expecting, they have barely grown in real terms over the past year. That’s a far cry from what we saw from 1995 to 2000, when a very tight labor market led employers to give generous raises, which in turn led to increases in average worker pay by 2.4% every year, above and beyond inflation.

About the Authors
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

A Viking ship named Havhingsten af Glendalough - the Sea Stallion of Glendalough -, the world's largest replica of a Viking warship, sets out 01 JUly 2007 from the Viking Museum in Roskilde, Denmark, on a voyage to Dublin in Ireland, where it is scheduled to arrive 14 August.
EuropeScience
1,000-year-old massive textile factory unearthed in Denmark—and it belonged to the Vikings
By James Brooks and The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
2 hours ago
Young couple standing in a brightly lit home
Real EstateHousing
A big look at the state of housing in America: Boomers won’t sell, millennials can’t buy, and Gen Z gets to watch the whole thing sort itself out
By Tristan BoveJune 24, 2026
2 hours ago
Wind turbines on yellow grass
Environmentwind power
California threatens to hit Trump with lawsuit if he doesn’t revive massive wind farm project off central coast
By Jennifer McDermott and The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
2 hours ago
Warren leans in to talk to Scott
PoliticsHousing
Congress’s landmark housing bill could backfire on millions of renters
By Jacqueline MunisJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Institute's Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel,on May 6, 2024 in Beverly Hills, California.
RetailSpaceX
Elon Musk was the world’s first trillionaire for 12 days
By Eva RoytburgJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
President Donald Trump pictured in September 2025 signing an executive order that overhauled the H-1B visa program.
EconomyImmigration
Trump’s international student crackdown kicked off a domino effect that could shave nearly $500 billion off the economy
By Tristan BoveJune 24, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
Economy
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
By Jacqueline MunisJune 24, 2026
16 hours ago
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
Retail
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
8 hours ago
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America 'doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire'
Asia
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America 'doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire'
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
10 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 23, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.