• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

Redeeming Greenspan: Don’t blame the Fed for bubbles

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 27, 2014, 9:00 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — When it comes to financial crisis bogeymen, Alan Greenspan is often thought of as public enemy, let’s say, No. 3.

He may not conjure the same ire as too-big-to-fail bank CEOs, but there are few public figures whose reputation was damaged more by the 2008 financial crisis. Critics from the left assailed him for his overconfidence in the self-regulating power of free markets, while hard-money advocates on the right argued that he fueled the real estate bubble by keeping interest rates too low following the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001.

MORE: 4 reasons inflation is finally about to take off

But as economists begin to examine these criticisms, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Greenspan can be acquitted of at least the second charge. Sure, there are risks to keeping interests rates too low — chief among them inflation. But do low interest rates really inflate asset bubbles? According to a paper published Tuesday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, no, they don’t.

Researchers studied stock prices from the 1960s up until the financial crisis to determine how they responded to increases in short-term interest rates by the Fed. The result? After short-lived declines in stock prices, values actually rose in the long term.

This makes sense on a conceptual level, if the Federal Reserve is executing its monetary policy decisions as it should. After all, the Federal Reserve should be reacting to economic conditions on the ground rather than acting as the leading cause for why asset prices rise or fall. So, if the Fed raises rates, it’s doing so because it has evidence that the economy is growing quickly, that resources are growing increasingly scarce, and that inflation is a concern. All of these factors, all else being equal, would cause stock prices to rise. While news that the Fed is raising rates may cause stocks to temporarily decline in value (because higher interest rates reduce the present value of future income), the overall economic conditions that led the Fed to make the decision to raise rates will continue, in the long run, to drive share prices higher.

The same logic holds when the Fed lowers rates. Cheaper money will cause stock prices to rise, but it can’t overcome the many other factors that may be depressing stock values at a given time.

The evidence presented in the NBER paper applies to monetary policy today. Critics of the Fed’s stimulative bond-buying efforts often claim that it is stoking asset bubbles in markets as diverse as farm land to tech stocks. But would these assets still look bubble-like to some eyes absent Fed actions? We simply don’t know.

MORE: The real reason Bitcoin is doomed

The attitude the Fed is taking so far seems to be, “If there isn’t widespread inflation, why assume that monetary policy is the reason certain asset prices look expensive?” Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and an FOMC member, has articulated this vision forcefully in recent years. In a 2009 speech, he said:

I agree that the severity of the recent crisis argues against simply waiting and mopping up after the fact if and when the prices of some assets do collapse. But the type of proactive response by a central bank that I envision is not well captured by the expression “leaning against a bubble.” I prefer to see policy reacting to apparent exuberance in asset markets and the problematic risk exposure this could create, rather than initiating action out of a strong conviction that these particular assets are overvalued.

In other words, just because we’re more aware of the risks that asset bubbles pose, that doesn’t make us any more competent in spotting asset bubbles in real time. Furthermore, since monetary policy is a blunt tool that affects the entire economy, it makes little sense to use it as a means to burst bubbles in specific markets. The Fed can use its regulatory powers to help make sure bubbles don’t arise, but as much as hard-money folks may want it to be otherwise, it doesn’t appear that low interest rates are their cause.

 

 

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

rh
AIReid Hoffman
Reid Hoffman says SpaceX is ‘not an AI company’ and xAI is a ‘complete train wreck’—and there’s room for both OpenAI and Anthropic
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
1 hour ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
SuccessCareer Advice
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
SuccessBrainstorm Tech
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
By Rachel VentrescaJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
Investing
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
By Nick LichtenbergJune 22, 2026
2 days ago
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
3 days ago
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
Real Estate
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
By Sydney LakeJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.