• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

Gene Munster: The iPhone, iPad, Apple TV and beyond

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 12, 2013, 4:12 PM ET
Munster at BI’s Ignition conference. Photo: PED

FORTUNE — Except for a few snarky comments Henry Blodget made in his opening presentation Tuesday about what Tim Cook needs to do to stay competitive in China, the only session devoted to Apple (AAPL) at Business Insider’s three-day Ignition: Future of Digital conference was Gene Munster’s 15-minute after-lunch talk titled “The State of Apple.”

Among the points he made:

  • iPhone unit sales grew 23% over the past two quarters compared with 47% for the overall market. “The reality is,” Munster told Ignition attendees, “the iPhone is growing slower than market rates because it’s priced too high for emerging markets.”
  • Munster expects Apple to introduce a larger iPhone (5-inch) in the middle of next year, and although iPhone pricing hasn’t changed over the past year (except for the iPhone 4) he expects Apple will soon start lowering prices for older phones in emerging markets.
  • The iPad represents 25% of Apple’s revenue, but it’s been struggling lately because innovation is more difficult on tablets and because prices in this market are particularly sensitive. (Unlike iPhones, iPads are not subsidized by carriers.)
  • Munster believes Apple is working on a larger-screen iPad for 2015. The  market is too big (320 million units next year, by one estimate), he says, for Apple not to expand its offerings. “We believe that two sizes don’t fit all.” Also, for branding purposes, an iPad Pro would line up with the MacBook Pro.
  • Munster described Apple television as one of his favorite topics. “It’s an understatement that I’ve been wrong about the timing of the TV,” he deadpanned, noting that he first predicted that it would arrive in 2012 (or was it 2011?). But he’s not standing down. He believes an Apple television set is going to happen, and that it will arrive in 2014.
  • In what was almost a parody of a tiny-sample Piper Jaffray survey, Munster showed a video of man-on-the-street interviews with 14 consumers, in which seven said they would buy an Apple television, five said no and two said maybe. In a larger survey this summer, the 50% who said they would be interested in buying an iTV fell to 15% when they were told that the set might cost $1,700.
  • By Munster’s calculation, a 15% share of the connected TV market would add 18% to Apple’s overall revenues. “That’s why we think Apple will do it.”
  • He also believes an iWatch is coming in 2014, not because he’s picking up signals from Asian supplier, but because it fits with what Tim Cook has said about new product categories and his “intense interest” in the watch. Recent hires from places like FuelBand “wouldn’t be coming to Apple if there weren’t something going on with a watch,” Munster says.
  • Tellingly, of 13 consumers interviewed in a second video, only one said he’d be interested in buying a watch from Apple. In a broader survey, 12% of iPhone owners said they might buy an iWatch, a number that fell to 6% when Android users were included. Munster estimates that if Apple were to sell 5 to 10 million units, that would add 1% to 2% to Apple’s annual revenues.
  • Munster also believes TouchID will eventually be exported to Passbook, Apple’s fumbling attempt to create a digital wallet. “The wallet is going to change,” he said. “It’s not about getting your credit card out faster than your phone. It’s about not waiting in line. It’s about loyalty programs. It’s about receipt management. Apple needs to be there.”
  • But Passbook — which launched in 2012 — has not taken off. It only has 37 applications in it, “Which is pathetic,” says Munster. “If anyone can grab me afterward and explain what they love about their Passbook app, I would love to hear it because I’m struggling to find out what that is.”
  • Assuming Apple can grow a digital wallet business as big as PayPal’s, about $9 billion a year, that would add about 4.5% to Apple’s revenues.
  • When Munster asked his people on the street what they’d like Apple to do next, one of the themes that came up was home automation. Possible applications include smart TVs, smart appliances and smart thermostats — like ex-Apple SVP Tony Fadell’s Nest product. It’s a big market. There are 132 million homes in the U.S. If Apple could get 20% of homeowners to spend $500 a year, that would add $13 billion to Apple’s top line. “That’s a decent size market,” says Munster, who, not surprisingly, sees iTV as the center of the Apple smart home.
About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Man in a white shirt and jacket.
InnovationBrainstorm Tech
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
2 hours ago
Sam Bankman-Fried formally files for pardon—but White House reiterates that FTX cofounder’s odds are slim
CryptoSam Bankman-Fried
Sam Bankman-Fried formally files for pardon—but White House reiterates that FTX cofounder’s odds are slim
By Camila Grigera NaonJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, June 3, 2026
InvestingWall Street
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
5 hours ago
The entrance to a U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) detention facility
North AmericaDepartment of Homeland Security
Texas ICE facility spent $11.5 million on guards, medical services, transportation and meals weeks before the camp even held detainees, GAO finds
By Michael Biesecker, Ryan J. Foley and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
5 hours ago
AI isn’t replacing Hyatt’s salespeople—it’s freeing up a full day of work every week, according to the CEO
AIBrainstorm Tech
AI isn’t replacing Hyatt’s salespeople—it’s freeing up a full day of work every week, according to the CEO
By Sharon GoldmanJune 9, 2026
5 hours ago
America’s grid is reeling. General Motors offers itself as a distributed utility in disguise
EnergyAutos
America’s grid is reeling. General Motors offers itself as a distributed utility in disguise
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
10 hours ago
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
Environment
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
By Sasha RogelbergJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
Success
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
By Preston ForeJune 7, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.