• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

In stress tests, Fed may have inflated grades for TARP banks

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 21, 2012, 9:00 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

UPDATE, March 27

For two banks that have yet to repay government bailout funds, the Federal Reserve’s stress test was easier than for rivals.

FORTUNE — The Federal Reserve appears to have class favorites.

Analysts say two banks, Regions Financial (RF) and Zions Bancorp. (ZION), received better grades in last week’s stress tests than they deserved. One possible reason: Regions and Zions have yet to repay the bailout money they got from the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program – money the government seems increasingly eager to get back. Collectively, the two banks owe $4.9 billion to the government – more than any of the other mostly small 361 banks still in the program – or about a third of the TARP funds still owed by banks. And that, analysts say, may have affected how the Fed graded the two banks.

MORE: Where the stress test failed

Analysts thought a likely outcome of the stress test was that Regions and Zions would be told by the Fed that they had failed and would have to raise more capital. Instead, Regions and Zions passed the test, receiving better grades than many of their larger rivals, and were given the green light to repay government funds, which both banks now say they will do by the end of the year. Shares of Regions and Zions have risen more than other bank stocks since the test, up 10% and 16%, respectively, indicating investors were surprised by the results as well.

“Both companies received a pass in terms of the rigor of the test and getting out of TARP itself,” says Todd Hagerman, an analyst who follows bank stocks at brokerage firm Sterne Agee & Leach. “The numbers for losses looked generous for those two banks.”

The Fed said all the banks in the stress test were evaluated equally. Last week, Regions CEO Grayson Hall said he was pleased with the outcome of the Fed’s stress test and that it “demonstrates the strength of our company.” Zions said that even under the Fed’s extreme stress test scenario – a rise in the unemployment rate to 13%, a 50% drop in stock prices, and a more than 20% decline in home prices – that the bank’s capital had remained well above what the Fed required.

MORE: Can Apple’s stock reach $1368?

But for Zions that result appears to be based on the fact that the Fed approved a loan loss estimate that was roughly half of the rate that was applied to other banks. Zions was not subject to the same stress test as Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. That’s because it’s not one of the nation’s 19 largest banks. As part of the stress test, though, the Fed asked Zions and 10 other banks with more than $50 billion in assets to submit their estimates of how they would do under the Fed’s stressed economic scenario. The Fed tested those projections and then passed or failed the banks based on its calculations. The Fed declined to make the details of the stress test of Zions and the other smaller banks public. Says Fed spokeswoman Barbara Hagenbaugh, “The Fed did not rubber stamp the results.”

Nonetheless, it appears the Fed was more lenient with Zions than with other banks. Last month, Zions told analysts it projected that $1.7 billion, or 4.5% of its loans, would go unpaid under the Fed’s stress scenario. That’s significantly lower than average 8.1% loan loss estimate that the Fed used to determine whether the nation’s 19 largest banks had enough capital or not. Go with Zion’s estimate, which it appears the Fed did, and the bank comes out of the stress test with 60% more capital than is required. A pass. But if the Fed had applied the same loan loss ratio to Zions that it did on average to the other banks, Zions’ stress test would have shown that the bank has 30% less capital than it needs, meaning it would have failed.

MORE: Throwing coldwater on the U.S. manufacturing rebound

Regions appears to have gotten a similarly light treatment. The overall loan loss projection for Regions, which is one of the nation’s 19 largest banks, was in line with the average for other banks. But much of the bank’s loan portfolio is concentrated in the Southeast, which has been hit hard by the housing bust, and where analysts expect loan loses to be higher than average.

In fact, Regions might already not have enough capital to cover its portfolio. As Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Weil has noted, Regions’ recent financial statements said that the bank would have to take an $8 billion loss if the bank were forced to sell all of its loans today. Regions, however, only has $7.6 billion in capital to cover those losses, or $400 billion less than it needs. Meaning no stress test is required. Regions already fails.

“The administration seems to want to have as much of the bank bailout fund repaid by November,” says analyst Hagerman. “I think that played into how the Fed looked at the TARP banks.”

UPDATE: Zions CEO submitted this letter to the editor after FORTUNE’s article was published. A Zions spokesperson said the bank did not originally respond to FORTUNE’s requests for comments because the bank was in the middle of an offering.

Stephen Gandel’s article, “In stress tests, Fed may have inflated grades for TARP banks,” suggests that the Fed may have had its eyes half shut when evaluating the capital strength of my firm, Zions Bancorporation, in a hypothetical severely stressed economic environment. Mr. Gandel’s comments about Zions Bancorporation missed the mark in some fundamentally important ways.

 First, Zions Bancorporation’s loan losses as a percentage of average loans over the past four years have been better than the combined record chalked up by all large publicly traded banks by a wide margin; our annual average loss rate through the crisis and its aftermath was 1.90%, compared to 2.51% for large bank loan portfolios in general. And that’s despite the fact that we had a disproportionate share of exposure in some of the nation’s toughest markets, including Nevada, Arizona and SouthernCalifornia. We also had approximately twice the exposure of other banks to the hard-hit real estate construction and development sector. Our exposure to such loans, with their higher risk and potential loss content, has decreased by two thirds since the beginning of the crisis, substantially reducing our futurerisk profile.

At the same time, we’ve strengthened one of the strongest core deposit franchises in the industry, and maintained one of the strongest net interest margins among all large banks. Furthermore, Zions Bancorporation has also raised substantial capital since the financial crisis began. From 2008 through the end of 2012, we raised new common equity equal to 124% of our TARP investment, and preferred equity equal to 47% of TARP.  That compares to the median values of 52% and 40%, respectively, for capital raises by other banks that have exited TARP prior to 2012.

 It should also be noted that the sole Wall Street “analyst” that Mr. Gandel references in his comments about Zions Bancorporation is Todd Hagerman of Sterne Agee & Leach. Mr. Hagerman, in the days leading up to the release of the stress test results, had recommended that his clients sell short Zions shares, believing that we would have to issue $600 million of additional common equity (recently revised downward from his estimate of $1 billion). Mr. Hagerman’s view was a clear outlier among the more than two dozen sell-side analysts that cover my company.  Given that clients heeding his recommendation would have suffered a substantial loss from the recent strength in the stock following the Fed’s announcement, one might conclude that Mr. Hagerman has ample reason to pin the blame on the Fed’s alleged flawed analysis, rather than his own.

 Harris H. Simmons

Chairman, President and CEO

Zions Bancorporation

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

rh
AIReid Hoffman
Reid Hoffman says SpaceX is ‘not an AI company’ and xAI is a ‘complete train wreck’—and there’s room for both OpenAI and Anthropic
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
1 hour ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
SuccessCareer Advice
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
SuccessBrainstorm Tech
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
By Rachel VentrescaJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
Investing
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
By Nick LichtenbergJune 22, 2026
2 days ago
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
3 days ago
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
Real Estate
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
By Sydney LakeJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.