• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

1

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

2

Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock

3

Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026

Get ready for ho-hum stock returns for years

By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 27, 2012, 6:36 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — While most investors were transfixed with Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter this weekend, smart Wall Street types also picked through the latest letter from another value investing whiz.

Jeremy Grantham, who oversees $100 billion of institutional money at Boston-based GMO, titled his missive “The Longest Quarterly Letter Ever,” and it clocks in as advertised, taking up 14 mostly single-spaced pages. Grantham has earned the right to be long-winded: the 73-year-old correctly called the last decade’s market bubbles and famously told investors to jump back into stocks at the market’s bottom in March 2009.

The most compelling section in Grantham’s latest letter expands on his belief that capitalism is ill-suited for the coming population boom. “Capitalism, by ignoring the finite nature of resources and by neglecting the long-term well-being of the planet and its potentially crucial biodiversity, threatens our existence,” he writes. It’s truly fascinating stuff, but because you can read the full note at GMO’s site after registering, and because Grantham is foremost an investing strategist, we’ll skip to Grantham’s recommendations for investors.

Like Buffett, Grantham probably feels he can give out his secrets to successful investing because, simple as they are, the average investor finds them impossibly tough to follow.

MORE: Buffett on housing: Was ‘dead wrong,’ but still believes

Grantham’s biggest one today: don’t dive headfirst into U.S. stocks, especially after the S&P 500 has risen nearly 9% this year. According to GMO’s forecast, which relies on long-term average profit margins and PE-ratios, the S&P 500 is priced to return just 1% annually after inflation over the next seven years. The one highlight in this otherwise boring forecast is the expected return of the S&P’s highest-quality companies, such as Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Cisco Systems (CSCO). That top quartile of companies should return 5.5% annually after inflation, Grantham predicts.

Grantham is slightly overweight other global equities, which are priced to return about 6% a year after inflation over the next seven years. “This is not exactly whoopee time, but compared to the typical overpricing of the last 20 years, it’s not bad at all,” Grantham says. “The majority of global equities are within spitting distance (a technical term) of fair value.”

Maybe his simplest advice to follow is related to natural gas. After a production boom in North America, natural gas prices have fallen to around $2.50 per million British thermal unit from $10 per million BTU in 2008. With oil prices rising, the disparity in oil and natural gas prices is nearing a 50-year high—a compelling opportunity, he says, for long-term investors.

“Natural gas is, for most purposes like home heating and electric utility plants, a better and cleaner fuel than oil or coal, but is for technical reasons in distress,” Grantham writes. “There have been several recent decades in which the BTU equivalent price for natural gas did, at least for a second, reach parity with oil. But now it is at just 14% of BTU equivalency, the lowest in almost 50 years. Everyone who has a brain should be thinking of how to make money on this in the longer term.”

Grantham includes this graph to illustrate the disparity:



Grantham’s other recommendations:

-Underweight long-terms bonds as much as you can.

-Buy natural resources, forestry, and agricultural land, but because short-term prices can fluctuate wildly, investors should buy in steadily.

Grantham puts it in context: “So in asset allocation there is one great opportunity—avoiding duration in fixed income—and one pretty good opportunity—down weighting most of the U.S. market. Not such a bad opportunity set, really.”

About the Author
By Scott Cendrowski
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

rh
AIReid Hoffman
Reid Hoffman says SpaceX is ‘not an AI company’ and xAI is a ‘complete train wreck’—and there’s room for both OpenAI and Anthropic
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
1 hour ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
SuccessCareer Advice
Now she’s worth $200 million. But Sarah Jessica Parker says being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ growing up created her work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, June 24, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
SuccessBrainstorm Tech
Tesla cofounder JB Straubel’s first pitch to Elon Musk failed. Then he turned his ‘hobby’ into a $1.3 trillion success
By Rachel VentrescaJune 24, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
Banking
Markets tumble worldwide as Fed resets expectations: $400 billion wiped off SpaceX stock
By Jim EdwardsJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 23, 2026
22 hours ago
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
Investing
Meet the 2 men putting New York's $300 billion pension fund in play for the first time in 20 years
By Nick LichtenbergJune 22, 2026
2 days ago
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
3 days ago
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
Real Estate
Texas and Charlotte used to build huge McMansions—now they're copying the California design tricks they once mocked
By Sydney LakeJune 22, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.