• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO

Time to dump small-caps?

By
Colin Barr
Colin Barr
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Colin Barr
Colin Barr
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 13, 2010, 9:20 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Is Ben Bernanke telling you to ditch small-cap stocks?

Stocks of all stripes have taken a hiding since the Federal Reserve issued its latest warning about the flagging economy. But smaller stocks, which until recently were looking like world beaters, are taking bigger lumps.

The Russell 2000 index of small stocks is off 6.4% since Tuesday, against a 3.9% loss for the S&P 500.



Time to stick a fork in small-caps?

What’s more, some strategists expect an anemic recovery to keep bleeding small-caps as long as signs of an economic bounceback remain scarce. That could be a while, the way things are going.

“Smaller companies are at a major disadvantage in this environment,” said Andrew Barber, a strategist at Waverly Advisors in Corning, N.Y. “Raising capital in the market, investing overseas, hiring temporary labor – all these factors favor the bigger players.”

That’s not to say buying blue-chip stocks is a walk in the park. Count Hewlett-Packard and Cisco among the deep-pocketed multinationals that have gotten hauled off to the woodshed this month.

But investing in small-cap stocks tends to be costlier, given the thinner markets these stocks trade in. And the high prices currently prevailing on small-cap stocks mean the trade-off isn’t likely to be worth it, BNY Mellon Beta Management said in a study last month.

Using a dividend discount model to project returns, BNY Mellon found small-caps promise no better returns than big-caps for the first time since 1983. It pronounced small stocks “relatively unattractive at this time.”

Barber and Bank of New York aren’t the only ones seeing small-caps as overextended. Value investor Jeremy Grantham mused in his market commentary last month – before the latest selloff — that “both speculative and small stocks that were relatively overpriced on Jan. 1 have beaten the blue chips year to date. It really is remarkable.”

Barber’s firm has been betting since April that big-cap stocks would outperform smaller ones, by buying S&P 500 futures and selling Russell 2000 contracts. He reasoned at the time that the small-cap index “appears overextended from a historical perspective.”

So far, that bet has paid off. Since the April 23 peak, smaller stocks have fallen half again as much as the blue-chips.

Barber says the speculative appetites that drove small-caps higher have been waning, thanks to events such as May’s European debt crisis.

While that problem has been resolved for now, market sentiment remains sensitive to worries about Western economies’ growth prospects and fiscal problems, as well as discrete disasters such as the BP oil spill that fouled the Gulf Coast and the Russian drought that has sent wheat prices soaring.

Not everyone buys the notion that small-cap stocks as a group are overpriced. Buzz Zaino, who runs the $1.7 billion Royce Opportunity fund, contends the 2009 lows left small-cap stocks at “ridiculously low” valuations. He adds that many small-cap stocks remain undervalued even now, after the Russell 2000 nearly doubled off last year’s low.

Even so, he agrees that a nervous market and a weak economy make a rally unlikely for now.

“On average, when people are nervous they will go to the big-caps,” said Zaino.

Zaino says small-caps may find a bid next month when retailers start reporting back-to-school sales. Once the economy starts to show clearer signs of improvement, he says, being invested in small-cap stocks will pay off, because “that’s where most of the money will be made.”

But others counsel patience in waiting for that turn.

“There tend to be periods where small caps outperform, but this does not appear to be one of them,” BNY’s Mark Keleher said.

About the Author
By Colin Barr
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

aus
LawSocial Media
Australia’s under-16 social media ban is failing, so the government is (literally) doubling down
By Rod McGuirk and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
1 hour ago
usa
EnvironmentHeat
Long and dangerous heat wave to roast America from Dallas to New York through July 4th holiday
By Marc Levy and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
swisher
Politicspodcasts
‘Podcasts are the NBA’: Scott Galloway on Kara Swisher’s big success — ‘there’s a small amount of people making a lot of money’
By Steven Sloan and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
np
PoliticsColleges and Universities
Nancy Pelosi brings her legendary congressional knowhow to a new Berkeley institute with $35 million in funding
By Kevin Freking and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
bm
PoliticsWhite House
As Bill Maher accepts Mark Twain Prize, the funniest thing is the tarp draped across the Kennedy Center
By Steven Sloan and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
comcast
Big TechMarkets
Comcast stock jumps 24% for agreeing to break up with itself
By Michelle Chapman and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
4 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
2 days ago
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
Success
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
Success
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
By Preston ForeJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
Environment
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
By Catherina GioinoJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
Politics
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
By Jason MaJune 28, 2026
22 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.